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Looks like BOX went with an advisory for most with a warning for the east slopes of the berks and the cape.

I like how CTP called me out specifically Most peak wind gusts will be in the 45 to 50 mph range, but given the several hour period of westerly 850 mb winds increasing to 55 to 65 kts in the 22Z Wed to 05Z Thu period, there could be some sfc gusts AOA 60 mph on the ridges, within and just to the east of gaps in the ridges and accompanying the stronger showers in that period.

Wouldn’t be surprising if there’s snow showers or light snows in SNE later Monday into early Tuesday .. with dusting - 1”

I think he moved to NY with @psuhoffman.

Indeed. Horrific.

63F,sunny. Gusty night ahead. Expect to feel some 40-45mph+ gust...

Maybe an isolated gust here and there, but only once have I experienced hours and hours of >55kt blasts. That was on New Years Day of 1962, a bitter (5/-8, chilly for NNJ) day with gusts that had to approach 70 mph as some large leafless oaks were uprooted from the semi-frozen ground - only 2" snow OG. Meanwhile a strong LP was doing a loop in the GOM and burying the Penobscot area from BGR (29.5") to Ripogenus (46") with 60+ mph gusts there.

Looks like folks in the elevated areas of Western Maine are going to see there first snow overnight, Looks like 3-6" above 2,500' with C-2" possibly down to the valley floor.

Tuesday mornings low is getting colder and colder as we get closer. Looks like we could get a hard freeze if it gets any colder.

February Niñas are notoriously warm and dry with few exceptions unfortunately. We'll definitely need to hope late November thru January work out or we're outta luck (short of 1 of those few exceptions.)

Looking at some 12z NAM bufkit locations we're still looking at 45-50 mph gusts region wide but there may still be a sliver of a window where there could be some gusts in the 55-60 range somewhere. Many soundings still have ~50 knots at the top of the mixed layer. Obviously this doesn't guarantee that translates to the surface.

We excel at long-range fantasy storms!

Will be interesting to see if it extends this cool punch by a few days next week. Euro has been trying to flush it in and out in about 36 - 48 hours.

Ha, end of the 6z Euro AI has a KU look to it.

It’s showing an east-based -NAO for December

We were apparently a bit more fortunate over here in the '70's irt November Snowfall. 8" Thanksgiving 1971. 2" early November '74, 4" Nov.12-13, 76. 11" (12" Pennington gap, 16" Big Stone) Nov.26,77. The '80's had no major November Snowfalls other than Higher Elevations in 1987. A few inch or less events ; 1981, 85, 87, 89. As you alluded to, the '60's had measurable Snow nearly every November.

JB has been lamenting the euro mid range warmth bias forever now. Always talks about how it's unable to see cold in the mid-longer range.

I think it was. But I don't see the CAPE in this one really. That one did.

Yeah. There was Wright Weather Board before Eastern that many went to Eastern from as well.

My honest opinion that he exagerates some of this stuff moving forwards, but to be fair to him, the jury is still out.

Yeah, aside from the cool shot next week, looks like we become very warm through mid month, and then transient cool and warm for rest of November. Once again, akin to November 2024 and November 2023, lack of snow cover and cold across Canada and northern tier is making it harder for late fall and early winter to be cold and wintry for most of us. There have been plenty of years where we didn't have cold and winter weather in the early season, but up north or out west, they did. Past 2 years have been pretty much void of late fall/early winter cold and snow across most of CONUS and Canada. I'd expect the models to correct a bit warmer due to this.

Hoping @vortex95swoops in later today and assures that everything still on track from his post yesterday

I will let the admins know....as usual it may take a day or two.