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We’re getting pretty heavy rains at 1AM (8/4) from an area moving only slowly NW. Hopefully, the heavy doesn’t last too long. Edit: It’s not yet letting up at almost 1:30. And this was released at 1AM, a repeat of Saturday: Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ CHATHAM GA- 101 AM EDT MON AUG 4 2025 ..FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING * WHAT...FLOODING CAUSED BY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. * WHERE...A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTY, CHATHAM. * WHEN...UNTIL 300 AM EDT. * IMPACTS...MINOR FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WATER OVER ROADWAYS. OVERFLOWING POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN OR OTHER AREAS IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - AT 100 AM EDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN EXTENDING FROM SILK HOPE AND HUNTER ARMY AIRFIELD TO RIO VISTA. A QUICK 1 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL THROUGH 3 AM, RESULTING IN URBAN FLOODING. - SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE... POOLER, MIDTOWN SAVANNAH, WINDSOR FOREST, HUNTER ARMY AIRFIELD, COFFEE BLUFF, DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH, HUTCHINSON ISLAND, WILMINGTON ISLAND, I-16/I-95 INTERCHANGE AND MONTGOMERY.

Another Florida hit on gfs

Plenty of people who don’t fish use their boats. Coming from someone at the marina every week…also no sailboaters fish and they are out a lot as well. what keeps people from using their boats is kids sports and bad weather. That’s about it

71 for the high today with around .39 inches of rain. The rest of the week looks pretty good too.

After 5 runs in a row with TCG from this (3 in MDR and the last 2 N of the MDR), the new UKMET (0Z) completely dropped this as a TC.

Could potentially go 14+ days with no precip. Even with the smoke today, it was beautiful. It definitly has been feast or famine precip wise the past few months. It hasn't rained often but when it has, 3 inches+ has fallen 3 different times in less than a few hours, when rain chances were forecasted at 30%.

Yep, my dad likes to fish and keeps his boat in the water from mid-April through mid-October

pathetic try again next time dexter morgan

smoke has been an every summer occurrence for years now.

We got Dexter.

Hi Res NAM shows pockets of 6+

Orange skies and sun

Won’t be long until 95L is a TC.

The air quality and smoke has been something this season. So many hazy orange evenings on the mountain. The sun is just this orange crisp disk in the sky.

Boats are only worth it if you love fishing. Fishing season starts in April and runs through early December. Peole with boats, who don’t fish, barely use them and just waste money.

"do the dew" yes Dr. Dew approved

Days shortening quickly now. Christmas is right around the corner, and with the lack of sunlight/short days, it'll FLY by!

Dexter coming at 11

Table of forecasts for August 2025 FORECASTER ____________ DCA _NYC _BOS ___ ORD _ATL _IAH ____ DEN _PHX _SEA hudsonvalley21 __________ +1.8 _ +2.1 _ +1.9 ___+1.3 _ +2.2 _ +1.5 ___+1.3 _ +1.2 _ +1.0 wxallannj ________________ +1.8 _ +1.9 _ +2.0 __ +2.2 _ +1.2 _ +2.0 __ +2.8 _+2.8 _ +0.5 RJay ____________________ +1.5 _ +1.7 _ +1.7 ___ +1.8 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +2.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 Roger Smith _____________ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.8 __ +2.0 _ +2.5 _ +2.8 __ +3.3 _ +2.8 _+3.2 Yoda _____________________+1.4 __+1.1 __+0.9 __ +0.7 _+0.9 _+1.3 ___ +1.1 _ +1.6 _ +1.8 wxdude64 _______________+1.2 _ +1.6 _ +1.8 ___+1.1 __+0.6 _ +0.4 __ +0.9 _ +2.1 _ +1.9 ____ Consensus _________ +1.1 __+1.1 _ +1.0 __ +0.9 _+0.9 _ +1.1 ___ +1.4 _ +1.9 _ +1.7 Scotty Lightning _________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 __ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +2.0 __ +0.5 _ +1.5 _ +0.5 so_whats_happening ____ +1.0 _ +0.8 _ +1.0 __ +0.9 _ +0.6 _+0.5 __ +1.5 _ +1.8 _ +1.6 Tom ______________________+0.6 _+0.5 _ +0.4 __ +0.2 _ +0.9 _+1.1 ___ +1.2 _ +1.3 _+1.4 DonSutherland1 __________+0.3 _ +0.5 _ +0.6 __ +0.4 _+0.2 _+0.2 __ +1.6 _+2.1 _ +2.2 StormchaserChuck1 _____ +0.2 _ +0.4 _ +0.8 __ +0.4 _+0.1 _ +0.2 __ +2.0 _+2.3 _+2.3 ____ Normal _______________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 RodneyS _________________ -1.4 _ +0.3 _ -0.6 __ +0.9 _ -1.5 _ +0.1 ___ +1.8 _ +1.5 _ +1.1 =============== ____ Persistence __________ +1.4 _+2.0 _+1.9 __ +2.1 _ +3.4 _ +1.2 ____ 0.0 _ +1.4 _ +0.8 ______________________________________________________ Warmest and coldest forecasts are color coded (Persistence is not included) ... Normal is coldest for six locations, NYC, ORD, IAH, DEN, PHX and SEA.

Good thing I left Saturday.

Crazy how this forest fire season hasn't been worse. We've been so dry here in the Hebgen Basin/Yellowstone area.

Nice orange-red smoke moon tonight.

I am considering it a weak La Niña. If you follow my blog that would be clear....just like I considered last year borderline moderate. All I am saying is that the ONI is one factor that should weigh in to how heavily you factor that indicator. I'm not using the CPC definition of a La Niña to forecast a big winter or anything....but I think it would give me pause in using that rule as my primary rationale for going with another death-star of a season. I think seasonal forecasters in general (not directed at you) need to be mindful of being a bit more nuanced and less rigid in their forecasting conceptualizations.

Perhaps you missed my many subsequent posts in which my outlook on summer changed a bit. So far it has been a seasonably warm summer overall though overnight low temperatures have tainted averages upwards. But there has been no relentless heat only 3-4 day spurts of it. It is the high overnight low temperatures that help this summer to average out hot. Nevertheless you have back tracked to post in April or May which is quite a long time ago in the weather-world. And this weekend's weather was relatively cool at the coast (60s at night) but warmer inland. And such will be the case this week though temperatures should be about normal or slightly above overall for the first week of August. The second week looks above normal right now. But this is not relentless heat like the very hot summers. WX/PT