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Definite uptick on mean snowfall on the 12z EPS for the Thurs/Fri event.

That was the snowiest EPS run for New England in a while. Definitely some chances throughout those two weeks.

Mid week system...Lee side LPs are almost always a boom or bust situation with even short range models struggling with them. Most of our surprise snows on this side of the state have been caused by some sort of lee side...(some of the greatest busts have been too "lack of one forming"). I've always considered them coinflips that we just dont have the physics engine yet to simulate (they are more or less induced by the microclimates of the Apps spine).

No, your conversion rate is way off. It’s an infinite number of traces required to make 0.1 inch of accumulated snowfall. Yeah, I suppose I get another T today, too. I had as many flakes as are needed to not quite fill the other measurement for which T is an abbreviation: a tablespoon. (A trace is such a meaningless measurement…) .

Cold and dry for the next 10 days. Awesome.

Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 145 PM EST Sun Jan 11 2026 NCZ033-048>053-058-059-121845- Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham- Northern Jackson- 145 PM EST Sun Jan 11 2026 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. A northwest flow snow event is looking increasingly likely to impact the North Carolina mountains Wednesday evening through Thursday. Snow accumulations will be heaviest above 3500 ft near the TN border. Gusty winds and dangerous wind chills will be possible Thursday night into Friday morning in the northern mountains. Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk

Hopefully this blows up offshore and we get some epic vis images.

the most uninteresting 18" of snow anyone has ever seen, and disappeared like nothing

The fact that the EPS doesn’t have it is a red flag with the op EURO. I honestly can’t remember the last time we had a true Norlun in the metro area. Anyway, the UKMET finally loaded and it looks like the ICON and CMC. After what it did the last 2 days the op GFS should be tossed, luckily the GEFS was showing that its op runs have been total nonsense. The EPS, NWS National Blend of Models and AI EURO have a very minor event and that would be the way to go IMO. The GEPS comes out soon but it hasn’t budged in days and I don’t expect the new run to either

We now seem to have a focus on Thursday/Friday. As I have said recently, I don't like complication. There is a near certainty of changes. Some will be happy with changes and some, not so happy.

Total Eps snowfall.

Still need more midweek midstate juice!

Good looking run of the 12z ensembles today. As noted so there is no confusion...there is a ridge forecast to roll through from roughly the 22-25th. All three major ensembles are now showing the potential for yet more cold to arrive around the 25th or just after. That is good news. On modeling earlier in the week, the EPO kept retrograding into Asia and the wait for more cold could well have lasted through the first week of Feb(that is still on the table BTW). We are also seeing deterministic models flirt with VERY cold air masses. When we see the big highs which Jed mentions, that is usually an indicator of another cold air mass. The end of the Euro was frigid. We won't see that type of Euro every time, but ensembles do support the potential for yet more cold. The big thing to watch for is continue blocking over the top w/ ridging in the eastern Pacific. And we aren't having to wait 14 days for more cold...it is cold right now.

Would not surprise me. Cold springs have become the norm here. Sigh Cold rains. Yuck.

AniIntense downpour of graupel just passed through Damascus. The ground is coated with “styrofoam” pellets…very cool

This just in from skynet to SNE...

So a typical snow. Cool.

Thankfully it's not the other way around lol

12z EPS is actually a slight increase from 6z on Thursday's potential.

There is a lot of spread on the EPS for the 15-16th.

The end of the gfs was about to send it to. Had a 1060 parent HP in Canada and a 1055 in SE Montana.

Thats exactly my point. Scooter be damned

Ukmet finally ran and I wish it didn’t. Shows nothing pretty much like cmc. So it’s the cmc and ukemt vs gfs and euro

Speculation post: If patterns run in cycles, it's been almost exactly 60 days since we had an anomalous shortwave dropdown over the southern Apps and drop some early season snowfall. 11/11/25: Jan 15 2026 Overall NA pattern isn't quite the same, but thus the: #speculative Would be interesting if we got another rerun of this in early March.

Snowing in DC!