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Yes, I saw it was 12-14 over us at 12z

Like the Nam for picking up on warm layers but would like to see it consistent with vort handling two runs in a row before basing anything off its thermals…

Just when we thought the models were picking up the impression of the high pressure and the damming.

wow what did it show 12z for this area then because it cut our snow in half on the publicly available maps lol

I’m trying to remember a storm like this where the NAM was too warm and north with the nose

3k looks better with a lot of snow left

3k is colder.

Here you go: Good tropical connection and you can see the shortwave that shall not be named dropping in over Alberta:

FWIW, on RRFS, the sleet line only barely brushes LI but keeps the city all snow

It's just one more model. Still a long way to go. It's been wrong plenty of times with mix lines. Let's see what the rest of the suite brings before pulling the plug on the event.

3k NAM through hour 60.

Is Mt Holly map still 12-14 for the area?

call looking $$$

I mean its very close to comfort. It just makes me nervous that WAA somehow is always undermodeled. Hopefully its different.

And it's normally right

Update: They already posted it. They definitely call out that the main axis of snowfall has shifted south and east for Saturday night. Now calling for 5-8" for SC KS with Southeast KS approaching 10". Of note 4-6" of that is with the first wave, so they're leaning toward the 2nd wave having minimal impact here. I'll take it, but feels like we'll just miss out on the real fun that south and east of here will get.

Its not a marginal event. Temps are frigid. Models are most likely too warm.

Hilarious shift 12Z 18Z

I’m not gonna lie, because of how knowledgeable you are when I read that first line and for a half second I thought you were confirming the NAM was run on a windows 95 computer.

Definite got colder,CF is already trough Tn per RAOBS

I still have 10-12” for the northwest crew using the internal snow ratio calculation the RRFS uses if it’s any consolation. The crazy thing was how far the warm nose blasted in PA. That was wild. Freezing rain all the way past the turnpike

Let’s see what the GFS says

This is supposed to replace the NAM (what is it smoking)

But haven't we heard this dozens of times before marginal events?... but it's almost always correct with mix lines being further north than the consensus of other guidance.