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  1. I'm right there with you on the difficulty of not getting excited. It has been historically slow in regards to severe weather near Wichita over the past year. I think Wichita NWS only issued 1 or 2 tornado warnings in the past year! This could be the first significant threat in this area in quite some time. As you mentioned, the Euro is certainly the more ominous solution as of now. While still a week out, I do find it interesting that all the local forecast discussions have mentioned the "potential" for a robust severe threat, combined with the already outlined 15% risk from Storm Prediction Center. From reading their forecasts they tend to be leaning toward the Euro solution. Just following models more closely the last few days, I'd agree that the GFS seems to be trending toward the Euro more so than the other way around. Early in the game, but I'm excited just to have a potential event to track the next few days!
  2. Man I just looked at the 12Z Euro and I shouldn't have. Probably just getting my hopes up at this point. Still a week out but going to monitor trends closely. Honestly if it even hints at trending towards today's 12Z run it will be a fun week of model watching and potentially prepping for a central/southern plains severe weather event. Just feels like it's been forever since there was anything here in the SC Kansas area. That was quite the model run though!
  3. Whew, bottomed out here at -18.8 on my weather station at 6:30a this morning. Incredible! In regards to this next storm, why does ICT always have to be on the edge?! lol I think I'm leaning toward a non event here but it's going to be a close call. NAM did tick back north a tiny bit but we'll see. I'd be happy with another couple inches just to top this whole 2 week period off.
  4. Sun has broke out and finally jumped above zero. 1.2 degrees on the weather station now. Jumped within the last hour. However, temp will begin crashing shortly. As for the Tuesday storm, I do think it is a subtle difference in how wave ejects. GFS seems to be flatter but is now becoming the outlier as more and more of the HiRes models are coming more in line with the NAM, although maybe not to that extent just yet. Trend is good right now I'd say.
  5. Yeah, seems to be working out where we were socked in clouds all day, then look to clear just in time for sunset. Temps are going to crash here tonight!
  6. Wow, NAM has been pretty consistent pulling that moisture farther north and its holding steady, even more so on this run. Even NAM3k is showing this now, after 12Z run kept moisture southeast of ICT. I started seeing signs from a couple other models trending toward it. That would really cap off a pretty memorable 2 week stretch of winter weather around here!
  7. Have had off and on snow all morning around Wichita as well. Not sure on accumulation since so much snow already on ground, but a guess is 0.5-1". If I recall only models that picked up on this was NAM & RAP but could be mistaken. Has been slowly weakening but very back edge west of Wichita is starting to pick up again, which was actually picked up on the 15Z RAP IIRC. For a moment, it was snowing with sun peaking through clouds which was cool to see.
  8. I never measured but when I went out to get firewood I would say I have a similar amount here at my place. Now watching the temperature crash that is sure to come tonight and tomorrow night. And as you said, on to late Tuesday.
  9. Last 6 runs of the Euro for ICT QPF Totals and what that equates to Kuchera snow totals. These totals are through Tuesday 00z. Interesting to see the formula in play and also how even a tiny difference in qpf can make a big difference for snow totals in these very cold temps. 10/00z 0.4" = 6.8" 10/12z 0.6" = 13.4" 11/00z 0.6" = 12.1" 11/12z 0.4" = 9.7" 12/00z 0.5" = 9.9" 12/12z 0.4."= 9.4"
  10. I'm keeping my expectations pretty tempered here in Wichita until we get a little better consensus on how this trough ejects. The more positive tilt/open wave trend I see would explain the lower qpf projections up into KS. If I'm in Oklahoma I'm feeling good because qpf looks pretty good down there regardless. We need more neutral tilt/better organization to slug that moisture northward up here. We'll see how this Euro run trends.
  11. Oh my, between system #1 and #2 all of northern Oklahoma and southern kansas have over 1" of qpf. I mean...wow what run!
  12. lol in Wichita that first system on Sunday-Monday drops roughly .6-.7in of qpf but snow is falling with single digit temps. Hence the Kuchera ratio spits out 19in of snow. If this happens...wow
  13. Man, this run of cold weather is really something. If this pans out anything like the GFS is saying, (haven't looked as closely on other models) that would be about 2 straight weeks of below freezing! With most days not even close to freezing. Jury is still out on snow potential, but one would have to assume we will have at least few shots of precip. With high ratios we could put down a decent fresh snow pack and really send temps plummeting. Will be a fun few weeks of model watching for sure! I am in Wichita, but obviously this goes for many others on this board.
  14. Just got home after a fun day building a snowman and sledding with the family. Didnt officially measure but I'd estimate around 5" at my house in Rose Hill. (Southeast side of Wichita) Nice to finally get a decent snow around here!
  15. I hear you rockchalk. I live just southeast of Wichita right on the Sedgwick Butler county line and it feels like it's been forever since we've had a snow that completely covered the grass. This has been a fascinating storm to track and I'm hoping it snaps that streak. A few things I'm watching: Are the Hi Res models showing that eastward shift of qpf on to something? How quick will the changeover to snow occur? I still think there is merit to a heavy band of snow developing somewhere in this area that could over achieve and drop 6"+ even though we are only in a Winter Weather Advisory.
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