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  1. ICT mentioned concern with freezing temps possibly lasting into morning commute now. Also, with a few more hours of freezing rain leading to higher amounts, they mentioned possible localized upgrades as they monitor trends. They mentioned the higher qpf amounts could lead to increased runoff which would limit the amount of ice that would accumulate on surfaces. Thus some of those models showing very high ice accumulation being over done. Basically the things to watch are surface temps and qpf. If temps hold in the upper 20's and precip isn't as heavy as predicted it could lead to more significant icing. Will be interesting to monitor trends tonight for sure.
  2. Living on the southeast side of Wichita I've been watching this closely as well. However, my confidence is still very low on getting significant snow here for the reasons you mentioned rockchalk. Going to have to get the negative tilt and the storm to mature quicker in order for us to see that. Then where exactly the deformation zone sets up will be key obviously. Last night's 00Z Euro would be about perfect for me in that shows the system mature and closes off the upper low just in time to see a solid snow here. Having said that, each model run will show something different as this may not be determined until shortly before, or even day of. Update: Just looked at 12Z GFS quickly and without looking at precip output I honestly don't mind the look of the trough orientation and Vort max. Just pattern recognition alone would lead me to think at least somewhere nearby would pick up a decent snow.
  3. Well there certainly seems to be decent agreement from all the major global models for some sort of system in the Sunday-Monday time frame. The GFS, Euro & GEM were all showing some snow as of last night's runs. It has got my attention for maybe the first time this season here in Wichita. I'm now in check the models daily mode and hopefully the trend continues over the next 72 hours. Feels like it's been forever since we had a good snow here.
  4. Had a decent band of snow move through yesterday evening in Wichita, enough to coat the deck white. Low dropped to 19 last night in Wichita one shy of the record 18. Also, while it didn't accumulate, the day before it did snow briefly. The past 3 days the highs were 36, 37 & 42. Pretty crazy for October!
  5. Well here in Wichita, I'm certainly curious to see what the Friday/Saturday time frame can do. Last nights ECWMF run certainly caught my attention. I'm not holding my breath as we have been missed from all sides this year. However, when the Euro says something I typically listen. Still 5 days out though, so we'll see if it remains consistent over the next few days.
  6. Yeah, that was fun to look at. Haha. Even gave those of us up north some fun. It at least piques my interest for the 00z runs tonight to see if they continue coming in hot.
  7. Happy for you folks in Oklahoma with what now looks like a pretty good bet for a substantial winter storm. Looks like I'll have to start looking for the next opportunity for snow here in Wichita. Luckily I never got my hopes up too high for this event when the ECMWF started showing the precip shield staying south days ago. Feels like I've missed just north and now just south with storms so far this year. I have to say I like the pattern that's set up for this winter though.
  8. This is what I have been focused on being here in SC Kansas. My gut feeling has been that the cold dry air would win out here in KS, especially if this passed through as more of an open wave. However, if this comes out more amplified with a closed low at 500mb as the NAM is showing I think that certainly gives us a better shot at meaningful snow. ICT area forecast discussion touched on this last night. I found it interesting that they were actually siding with the GFS more than the ECMWF at the time when I was not. Still late in NAM so I may take this run with a grain of salt but it something I've been looking for. Granted this is slightly outdated I found it interesting. The extended range continues to be dominated by a strong storm system progged to develop to the south. The ECMWF and GEM have moved the system a little further to the north while the GFS continues to keep a similar track and is the furthest north of the three. The main issues with the ECMWF and the GEM continues to be lack of a closed low at 500mb which is inconsistent with the 300mb wind field which strongly supports a closed low at 500mb. The GFS positions this 500mb low in the northern Oklahoma region. This location supports snowfall over much of the CWA Friday and Saturday.
  9. Hey all, been reading this thread for a few years. Finally decided to join and chime in from time to time. While I'm certainly not as knowledgeable as many on here, I received my degree in Geoscience from Mississippi State and also got my (often debated at times) Certificate in Broadcast Meteorology about 4 years ago now. I interned at KWCH and worked with Rodney Price and Ross Jansen on the weekends. Having said that I don't work in the field as I decided to go in a different direction but still have a passion for weather as others here. To be honest I've become rusty and I'm not as sharp as I was 3 or 4 years ago. I just miss talking weather with others and figured I would add on to the conversation from time to time when I have the chance. Oh, I live in Rose Hill, which is just Southeast of Wichita. This is where I got my display name.