All Activity

20th. So many snow events on January 20th.

All nighter then?

The answer is no. Winters following no Conus H hit seasons haven’t been far colder on average and not even frequently colder. First of all, keep this in mind: since 1851 there have been 34 (20%) seasons with no Conus H impact on record. Of these 34, there were only 6 during La Niña (1872, 1890, 1892, 1973, 2000, and 2010) vs a much higher 15 during El Niño, which is intuitive. So, one needs to keep in mind that winters following no Conus H hit years are biased toward El Niño/away from La Niña. ————————— Winters since 1950 following no Conus H hit seasons: a mix 2015-6: mild 2013-4: cold 2010-1: cold 2009-10: cold 2006-7: normal 2001-2: mild 2000-1: cold 1994-5: mild 1990-1: mild E; cold W 1982-3: mild 1981-2: cold 1978-9: cold 1973-4: mild 1963-4: cold 1962-3: cold E, mild W 1951-2: mild E; cold W Of 16 winters in E half of US, 8 were cold, 7 were mild, and 1 was normal…so no signal W half of US: 9 cold, 6 mild, 1 normal…ever so slight cold signal in W Here’s the map for all 16 winters since 1950 combined: near normal nationwide/no cold signal at all: ————— *Edit: here’s the avg for 10 winters following no Conus H hit seasons 1895-1949: actually leaned slightly mild 1937-8: normal E; mild W 1931-2: mild E; cold W 1930-1: mixed 1927-8: mixed 1925-6: cold E; mild W 1922-3: mixed but mainly mild 1914-5: cold 1907-8: mainly mild 1905-6: mixed but mainly mild 1902-3: mixed but mainly cold

Gfs shifting so much makes me think the gfs is up to gfs things. General pattern looks more favorable than any threat this whole season.

An area of stronger 925 mb cold air advection (25-35 knots of wind at this level) crossing the region late this evening.

Will some stay up tonight for the 00z euro?

Low is our current temp of 55 after a high of 67. Clouds hung tight until around 4:30 when the sun finally came after after being cloudy since Saturday afternoon.

As soon as the sun went down the winds picked up. Definitely some 20mph+ gust...

Yeah, I don’t understand either. But look at the example I posted, and check others, and you’ll see, in a number of cases, it’s not a simple arithmetic average. And in some cases, diverges significantly (almost always warmer than the mean).

Euro weakest sauce at 989 mb for Sunday

It has but not ideal. These mosquitoes need to go

speaking of the jan 96 blizzard, what happened to that late february storm that prevented something like that from happening? was it just classic nina tendencies? in other words, what went wrong?

It doesn't look like it will be.

Yup… The north pacific just never coupled with the enso. Then we got lucky with the Atlantic also. It’s happened recently in ninos also where the pacific pattern never took on a canonical Nino configuration. It was just a fluke. A Nina that didn’t act like a Nina. It happens but it’s not something I’d ever expect again. If it does happen again great but I’d never predict it before hand.

I don’t know about you but all of this should be solely based on hour 84 NAM extrapolations. From what I’m seeing expect a big snow January 18th

Someone needs to take the GFS out back and put it down like old yeller

Only a 3000 mile difference between 12z and 18z. Consistent!

DT says La Nina isn't going to be a major factor this winter, though.

A fresh shot of cool air is now overspreading the region. Parts of the region could experience their coolest temperatures so far this fall tomorrow and Friday morning. Dry conditions will likely prevail through the remainder of the week. Milder air should begin to return during the weekend. In the 18 past years where Central Park saw at least two 80° or above highs and Newark saw at least two 84° or above highs during the first week of October, the temperature returned to 70° or above on at least one day during the second half of October in 17 (94.4%) of those cases. For all other cases, 84.1% saw at least one such high temperature during the second half of October. Therefore, the sharp cool spell very likely won't mean that New York City has seen its last 70° or above high temperature. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around October 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through mid-winter. The SOI was -3.10 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.731 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 60% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.7° (0.8° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.8° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Decent sunset tonight.

It’s much more subdued than last year, but there are definitely some trees that are fire around Greenfield.

I've been quite happy seeing the extra moisture this October. A lot of big systems (Lows) are forecast by NE Asia for a while, that's typically consistent with big systems moving through the SW at a 17-21 lead time this time of year. So I do see some support already for an active November. That's implied to some extent with the ACE to ABQ cold day correlation as well. I could easily be completely wrong about the winter, but its hard to see a warm winter nationally - I could see it regionally (SE/SW, or both). Serious question - I haven't looked - if you did a difference in proportions test for seasons without a US hurricane hit v. with a US hurricane hit, aren't the seasons without a hurricane hit far colder, or more frequently colder at least? I can't think of many winters following no US hurricane landfall in the US that are very warm, and consistently so.

We’ve been in stick season for about two weeks already.

Trending up with our first wound up system of the fall this weekend. Should be a good combo of wind and rain