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The children!

Exactly In fact, any snow potential we have, I'm setting my expectations at a Trace.

If Jamaica hadn’t been in the way this would’ve easily been top 3 too

I don’t remember the major location change from in-town to the more elevated airport, but I know it was pre 1940s. 95-96 is when the airport sites converted to ASOS/AWOS. But yeah, most of that time frame is the same location.

The fact you don’t feel good about this winter is a good thing…then it won’t take much to impress you. Setting the bar low…you can always adjust up if need be.

Hey y'all.. it's gonna rain!!

Same obs site? Low of 27 this morning, 12th sub-32 this month plus yesterday's 32. Coolest low is 25 on the 10th, and mildest minimum is 50 on the 20th, timing is kinda backwards.

Euro a little less stingy for LI but pretty much all modeling has some kind of split screw zone between the inland heavy upslope rain and developing frontal wave for eastern New England.

For planning purposes, heaviest rains move in after sunset; looks like the morning rush will be a washout and the steady to heavy rain will move NE out of the area between late Th. Morning and mid afternoon.

@wokeupthisam Here’s a question I always wondered… The Christmas trees are getting cut dormant after Thanksgiving. Can you cut dormant scions from a tree (winter pruning) and bark graft to a cut stump in the spring when the bark starts slipping? Or are the trees functionally dead after cutting and sitting all winter? I’m not familiar enough with firs to know if the sap tries to flow despite being chopped a few months prior. Being able to reuse a mature root system would have the new grafts sizing up quickly.

I wonder when in November (if we do) the pattern really begins to flip. I mean the extended GFS/Euro continue blowing the 576/582 500 heights well north into the country through mid-November. I think I made a post or two in the ENSO thread but (and this is not an official outlook or forecast) but I don't feel good about this winter at all. In fact, I would not be shocked if this ends up one of the warmer winters on record for the CONUS. Really curious to see how November plays out but we need something big/major (probably in the stratosphere first) to mix things up.

I am looking forward to fall back...model runs start coming out "earlier."

Blowing snow already .... Nice

The first high elevations snows(light) are expected in the Smokies overnight. I wonder you will see some, John?

I occasionally check it out. I wish i could have it set as a tv "channel" so i can just go to it and relive it lol

Also probably tons of flood damage inside near the coast where any surge reached. In my experience in Sandy that’s exactly what happened. From the outside the house looked relatively okay, inside totally devastated.

Best eye pic ever Sentinel 3 Sat

WB 12Z models: rain incoming....no rug pull with this one.

Agreed on enjoy any nice weather…I’ll take it for at least another month. No need to filthy up the roads now/or yet. Let’s keep the vehicles clean for another 3-4 weeks anyway. Has felt very autumn like this year however. And today feels like November with the clouds and damp feel at 52 degrees.

Since we only have annual counts from 1851 on, and some more anecdotal reports on seasonal severity before 1850, it occurs to me that any given 11-year cycle of any origin will correlate with the solar variability cycle which has never strayed far from a regular 11-year pulse since about 1837 (before that it also kept to that sort of frequency after the long downturn of the Maunder except for a speeding up to 9-10 years late in the 18th century followed by a slowdown to 12-13 years in the Dalton minimum). So just for the sake of exploring that solar-neutral 11-year concept, I arbitrarily used this progression and worked out average counts ... peak of cycle (for whatever reason) 1849, 1860, 1871, 1882, 1893, 1904, 1915, 1926, 1937, 1948, 1959, 1970, 1981, 1992, 2003, 2014, 2025. The average position of these years in the somewhat variable 10.5 year solar cycle is at peak year plus one, the specific displacements being +1, 0, +1, -1, 0, -1, -2, -2, 0, +1, +2, +2, +2, +3, +4, +1, 0?? at end. This reflects the fact that the solar cycles picked up in frequency in the later 20th century and have recently returned to a longer-period average closer to 11 years in this less active (so far) century. It should be mentioned that the 1905 peak for solar activity was in reality a flat-topped low-moderate peak from 1905-07 and also the 1968 peak was very indistinct between 1967 and 1972, so these "displacements" are more approximate. And if one were to go back the peaks of this steady 11-year cycle are 1838, 1827, 1816, 1805, 1794, 1783, 1772, 1761, 1750, 1739, 1728, 1717, 1706 which also resembles the actual solar peaks except in the period before the Dalton minimum when again more intense cycles sped up (the actual peaks in this interval going back are 1837-38 (about equal), 1829-1830, 1816, 1801-04 (a weak flat-topped peak), 1787 (may have had a strong secondary around 1795), 1778, 1769, 1761, 1749-50, 1738, 1717, and 1705 (a weak peak coming out of the Maunder minimum). So here are the hurricane data re-arranged to fit this 11-year cycle; since the first year of data is 1851, the data start at year 1 of an 11-year cycle in which the modulation years are at year 10 (and the mean of solar maximum years at year 9). <<< COUNTS in YEARS of 11-YEAR CYCLE (N Altantic basin) >>> Cycle starts __YR 01 _YR 02 _YR 03 _ YR 04 _YR 05 _YR 06 _YR 07 _YR 08 _YR 09 _YR 10 _YR 11 __ Cycle ends 1851 ________ 6 3 1 __ 5 5 1 __ 8 4 2 __ 5 3 1 __ 5 4 1 __ 6 4 2 __ 4 3 0 __ 6 6 0 __ 8 7 1 __ 7 6 1 __ 8 6 0 __ 1861 1862 ________ 6 3 0 _ 9 5 0 __5 3 0 __ 7 3 0 __7 6 1 __ 9 7 1 ___ 4 3 0 _ 10 7 1 __ 11 10 2 _ 8 6 2 __ 5 4 0 __ 1872 1873 ________ 5 3 2 _ 7 4 0 __6 5 1 ___ 5 4 2 __8 3 1 _ 12 10 2__ 8 6 2 _ 11 9 2 __ 7 4 0 __ 6 4 2 __ 4 3 2 __ 1883 1884 ________ 4 4 1 _ 8 6 0 _12 10 4__19 11 2 _ 9 6 2 __ 9 6 0 __ 4 2 1 _ 10 7 1 __ 9 5 0 __12 10 5 __7 5 4 ___ 1894 1895 ________ 6 2 0 _ 7 6 2 _ 6 3 0 __ 11 5 1 __10 5 2 __7 3 2 __13 6 0 __ 5 3 0 _ 10 7 1 __ 6 4 0 ___ 5 1 1 ___ 1905 1906 ________ 11 6 3 _ 5 0 0 _10 6 1 _ 12 6 4 _ 5 3 1 __ 6 3 0 ___ 7 4 1 __ 6 3 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 6 5 3 _ 15 10 5 __ 1916 1917 ________ 4 2 2 __ 6 4 1 _ 5 2 1 __ 5 4 0 _ 7 5 2 __ 5 3 1 ___ 9 4 1 __ 11 5 2 __ 4 1 0 __11 8 6 __ 8 4 1 ___ 1927 1928 ________ 6 4 1 __ 5 3 1 _ 3 2 2 __13 3 1 _ 15 6 4 _20 11 6 __13 7 1 __ 8 5 3 __17 7 1 __11 4 1 __ 9 4 2 ___ 1938 1939 ________ 6 3 1 __ 9 6 0 _ 6 4 3 _ 11 4 1 _ 10 5 2 _ 14 8 3 __11 5 2 __ 7 3 0 __10 5 2 __10 6 4 __16 7 3 ___ 1949 1950 ________16 11 6__12 8 3__11 5 2 __14 7 3_ 16 7 3 _ 13 9 4 __12 4 1 __ 8 3 2 _ 12 7 3 __14 7 2 __ 8 4 2 ___ 1960 1961 ________ 12 8 5 _ 7 4 0 _ 10 7 3 _ 13 7 5 _ 10 4 1 _ 15 7 3 _ 15 6 1 __ 8 5 0 _ 18 12 3__14 7 2 _ 13 6 1 ___ 1971 1972 ________ 7 3 0 __ 8 4 1 _ 11 4 2 __ 9 6 3 _ 10 6 2 __ 6 5 1 _ 12 5 2 __ 9 6 2 _ 11 9 2 __12 7 3 __ 6 2 1 ___ 1982 1983 ________ 4 3 1 _ 13 5 1 _ 11 7 3 __ 6 4 0 __ 7 3 1 __12 5 3 __11 7 2 __14 8 1 __ 8 4 2 __ 7 4 1 __ 8 4 1 ___ 1993 1994 ________ 7 3 0 _19 11 5 _13 9 6 __ 8 3 1 __14 10 3 _12 8 5 _ 15 8 3 _ 15 9 4 _12 4 2 _ 16 7 3 _ 15 9 6 ___ 2004 2005 _______28 15 7_ 10 5 2 _15 6 2 _16 8 5 __ 9 3 2 __19 12 5 _19 7 4 _ 19 10 2_ 14 2 0 _ 8 6 2 _ 11 4 2 ___ 2015 2016 _______ 15 7 4 _ 17 10 6 _15 8 2_ 18 6 3 _30 14 7_ 21 7 4 _14 8 2 _ 20 7 3 _ 18 11 5 _ 13 5 4_ (2026) ================= will post medians here and do some analysis shortly, have to post this to ensure no loss of data as going out briefly ... ...

Got 6” in Allentown from this storm. Power went out midday Saturday and stayed out till Tuesday evening. Even worse, schools were closed Monday so I couldn’t even go there to warm up as I was a senior in HS at the time. Loved the storm, hated the aftermath.

That’s what happens when you kill it for a decade and a half…regression is a beotch when you have to come back to reality.