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The HRRR shows nothing for Augusta/Rockingham thru 4 pm. It is wrong as convection is firing Staunton to Harrisonburg. The NAM 3k is on the money. Sorry to lose it.

By all accounts the 1821 hurricane that hit NYC on this date was even worse. A Cat 4 right into NJ and a Cat 3 up to NYC and a direct hit! Our own Labor Day hurricane before Labor Day even existed!

We need at least 2 weeks of uninterrupted sunshine. I'm going to enjoy hearing people who whined about this summer being hot are shocked when next summer is 3-5 degrees hotter. This wasnt a hot summer, mostly just humid and wet.

Like yeah…the PDO might alter pacific storm tracks, but it’s on the scale of 0s to 10s of miles, not 100s to 1000s. Same way that Canadian snow cover might force baroclinicity southward, so an individual snowstorm might track over the turnpike rather than I-80. But it’s not going to stop a cutter from going to the Ohio valley. It’s a bit ridiculous that the PDO is being discussed so much in this thread when you actually have a record breaking Nino that *will* actually alter the long wave pattern by *thousands* of miles.

This is MUCH better than yesterday was.

Can't have nice crisp Fall weather with soggy miserable foggy weather either. Endless sunshine is needed.

0.42” from the storms this morning but skies are clear now. 82 degrees here.

I saw the line coming in before I went to bed last night, but how bad were the winds? My Ambient is showing 13mph gust around 3am. Very surprised to see the backyard littered with leaves this morning.

Martz isn't an expert on glaciers, geology or Nepal. Pictures of the area in question from the blog I linked above show evidence of melting: 1) The glacier has shrunk quite a bit since 2017 and 2) the glacier isn't the pristine white of unmelted snow. The storymap that I also linked contains the following paragraph about local temperatures: Temperature data from nearby climate stations installed by University of Potsdam show the region has been very warm in the past weeks and months. In addition to the high temperatures across the network, station NPA6 (located approximately 20km from the source area, at 85.28567°N, 28.23455°E) shows rapid temperature increases in the morning in the three days prior to the event, which aligns with the timing of failure (8.37AM Nepal time). These quick temperature swings are a key driver for frost cracking and glacial instability. Bodo Bookhagen (Professor at Uni-Potsdam, Germany) notes that these rapid temperature swings are not evident in the other network sites, indicating this was likely a local event. Let me be clear though, its too early to say whether this event was climate related. That's an expert call.

The PDO index has none/negligible effect on the long wave pattern. There isn’t a really a reason to RONI it except for record keeping purposes. It’s a fully extratropical index.

.4 today, 1.8 event and 1.9 for 7 days. Not as much as some but it's plenty soggy.

I’m not aware of a relative PDO. Like the SOI and IOD, I don’t think relative is needed for these 3 indices because all 3 are based on differences between different areas that I assume largely cancel out any effect from GW. I do see why there are now two NOAA PDOs: yours is based on ERSST version 5 whereas mine is based on ERSST version 6, the newest version. How about that for adding to confusion? With 6 being the newest ERSST, I assume that it is the most official for NOAA PDO now.

The front is slower than had been shown, so the updated Day2 has expanded the SLGT back to the north. Still tons of CAM disagreement (of course).

Well if get anything later tonight it’s that complex developing over Michigan.

Sorry. Bad wording on my part. The southeast PA reference was regarding where the complex heads as it moves out of western PA.

I've honestly not taken much of a long look into the upcoming 2026-27 winter prospects but did take a quick peek at it just now. First of all, as of right now, it seems like the tropical Pacific and North Pacific *appear* to be out of sync and not quite coupled. Obviously we have a super Nino ongoing and expected to peak this fall. We're coming off a very negative SOI in July, I think the lowest since the 1980s. When taking a seasonal correlation of DJF 500mb heights to ASO SOI, you get a pretty canonical look. Positive correlations between SOI and 500mb heights in the SE US, meaning the negative SOI usually correlates to negative heights across the southern US, and then positive heights across the northern tier. However, we may have a competing signal given there is (currently) a lag in response of the PDO to the developing Nino. August PDO is still negative, which is counterintuitive to what you'd expect during a strong Nino. In fact, I simply can't find any year at all that followed a typical ENSO progression to this year (strong to super Nino developing, peaking in the fall, then waning and eventually switching to Nina the following year) and also had a negative PDO. We still have time before winter for the North Pacific to respond, but for posterity, here is the correlation map between ASO PDO and DJF 500mb heights. It's actually a very impressive negative correlation in the SE US, one that is more statistically significant than the SOI signal. The negative PDO usually correlates to positive heights in the SE US (big ridge in the eastern US), and that is opposite to the map above. So that begs the question here... IF the PDO continues to lag into the winter and we have a Nina like North Pacific but Nino tropical Pacific, how will the winter turn out? I'm under the opinion that we will see a North Pacific "coupling" this fall with the tropics, but I'm cautious about it until I see it. We've seen this persistent negative PDO for so long, aided by the marine heat wave off Japan, so idk. Just for further posterity, here is the 500mb height anomalies of 4 super Nino winters we've seen recently, which looks like a pretty canonical Nino pattern in the mean. But with Nina effects lingering, will we see a similar pattern this year? Long winded thoughts, but my idea this winter is a pretty torchy start into December and early January. We might see some brief negative NAO spikes by late Jan and Feb which is when we'll need to time an active STJ storm with an arctic front that's pressed off the coast. Even if not, probably some chances for cold spells. I'm also not a long range forecaster so take everything with a grain of salt LOL @GaWx What are you thinking/seeing for this winter in the East?

SVR warned for hail to ping pong ball size and winds to 60mph

0.01" here, woo hoo

Do we now have a relative and a traditional PDO now (like we do with the ONI)? This one shows July as -2.14 and August as -1.84: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

A bit of a mixed bag. Not terrible for sure. We take.

Yeah a pretty nice line between 1 and 2 am

Some concerning guidance and trends for at least portions of the Hawaiian Islands regarding Lowell

Currently 100 with a dew point of 72 giving me a heat index of 110… Brutal doesn’t even describe this well enough

I see HRRR hits us during the overnight hours. Who knows.