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lol so CMC/Ukie drive a low into Buffalo and some GFS members are suppressed to Raleigh...

Went from a 1050 over iowa to a weaker one over Vermont. Also dealing with a complete phase instead the Baja low coming across on its own

We used to joke in college that it was “processing” a monster solution as the reason for being late.

Does late transmission mean anything from the input side?

NWS Chat update: We are working on a Winter Storm Watch now, which should be sent out by 1 PM, including our whole forecast area.

Latest EURO

Ha, not the most responsible take on matters buuuut, we did a tongue-in-cheek study when I was an undergrad and found that it was true! A corr. coef. existed between delayed or failed transmission of model products preceding storms that actually took place. not kidding. Someone would come out of the PC lounge of the weather lab to announce the MRF was late ...cheers and applause erupted.

Fortunately, it's the UKMET, so it's probably way overdone.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Charleston WV 1228 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026 WVZ523-526-220130- /O.NEW.KRLX.WS.A.0001.260124T1200Z-260126T1200Z/ /O.CON.KRLX.WW.Y.0005.260121T2100Z-260122T1500Z/ Northwest Pocahontas-Southeast Randolph- Including the cities of Harman and Snowshoe 1228 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY... ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... * WHAT...For the Winter Weather Advisory today and tonight, mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches and ice accumulations around a light glaze. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. For the Winter Storm Watch this weekend, heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 10 and 15 inches possible. Locally higher amounts possible. * WHERE...Northwest Pocahontas and Southeast Randolph Counties. * WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Thursday. For the Winter Storm Watch, from Saturday morning through Monday morning. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening and Thursday morning commutes. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.

only 14 more model cycles suites to go. At this range the very close avg of all QPF has NYC spot on 1 inch which is quite a feat for such an aligned 96-120H forecast.

Notice how the bottom of the trough has moved west over the past couple of runs? That allows the primary to ride west of us. The High to the north eventually stops it but it brings warm air aloft to the east causing mixing. Prior to this the primary slid to our south.

WSW from MRX and FFC. I'd expect GSP to follow suit this afternoon.

Sometimes the model can be to quick to break down the ridge. I’m curious to see what the euro shows & more importantly what sort of tale the ensembles tell. .

Prudent, if for no other reason than the ZR possibilities.

WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations between 4 and 10 inches will be possible, primarily north of Knoxville with the heaviest accumulations near the Kentucky border and far western Virginia. In addition to the snow, ice accumulations up to one half of an inch will be possible, primarily south of Knoxville. The greatest ice accumulations will likely be south of a line from Crossville to Tellico Plains, especially the southern Cumberland Plateau. * WHERE...Portions of southwest North Carolina, east Tennessee, and southwest Virginia. * WHEN...From late Friday night through Sunday evening. * IMPACTS...Expect power outages and tree damage due to the ice. Travel could be impossible. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...This is a complicated forecast and details regarding the location of heaviest snowfall and freezing rain totals remain uncertain. Significant changes could occur in the coming days so please continue to monitor future forecasts. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. .

Euro delayed...

that's day 1 science, really.

Current observations over Alaska .

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Morristown TN 1227 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026 NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-005- 006-008-220700- /O.NEW.KMRX.WS.A.0001.260124T0600Z-260126T0000Z/ Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins- Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-Southeast Greene- Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-Southeast Carter-Roane- Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount-Blount Smoky Mountains- North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs- McMinn-Northwest Monroe-Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley- West Polk-East Polk-Lee-Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA- Including the cities of Cleveland, Mountain City, Cades Cove, Bullet Creek, Arthur, Unicoi, Lenoir City, Lake Forest, Chattanooga, Palio, Maynardville, Benton, Castlewood, Clairfield, Erwin, White Oak, Harriman, Sneedville, Old Washington, Huntsville, Pigeon Forge, Rockwood, Violet, Luttrell, Haletown (Guild), Kingston, South Holston Dam, Oneida, Strawberry Plains, White Pine, Archville, Old Cumberland, Big South Fork National, Topton, Cedar Creek, Bybee, Mount Crest, Big Frog Mountain, Jellico, Fincastle, Kyles Ford, Smokey Junction, Elgin, Big Spring, Maryville, Mooresburg, Unaka, Limestone Cove, Big Stone Gap, Lone Mountain, Lebanon, Newport, Evensville, Conasauga, Norton, Wise, Powells Crossroads, Bristol VA, La Follette, Elkmont, Bradbury, Russellville, Chestnut Hill, Clinton, Athens, Coker Creek, Martin Springs, Bristol TN, Cagle, Laurel Bloomery, Gatlinburg, Madisonville, Seymour, Signal Mountain, Eagle Furnace, Oliver Springs, Rose Hill, Norma, Monteagle, Pardee, High Point, Hiltons, Rosedale, Evanston, Jefferson City, Kingsport, Brayton, Parksville, Lone Oak, Sweetwater, Alpha, Andrews, Kodak, Neva, Marble, Abingdon, Oak Ridge, Norris Lake, Greeneville, Lookout Mountain, Elizabethton, Appalachia, Pikeville, South Pittsburg, Hartford, Happy Valley, Slick Rock, Tusquitee, Dentville, Pine Orchard, Knoxville, Hiawasse Dam, Shooting Creek, Treadway, Reliance, Doeville, Tasso, Springdale, Fairview, Morristown, Benhams, Loudon, Bearden, McMahan, Melvine, Honaker, Petros, Whitwell, Sevierville, Johnson City, Cartwright, Brasstown, Grandview, Harrisburg, Harrogate-Shawanee, Dye, Turtletown, Murphy, Hansonville, Shady Valley, Dandridge, Paulette, Ducktown, Howard Quarter, Dayton, Jasper, Sharps Chapel, Sandlick, Alcoa, Elk Valley, Clear Water, Royal Blue, Spring City, Coeburn, Etowah, Dunlap, Caryville, Trade, Citico, Hayesville, Bean Station, and Hampton 1227 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026 /1127 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026/ ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations between 4 and 10 inches will be possible, primarily north of Knoxville with the heaviest accumulations near the Kentucky border and far western Virginia. In addition to the snow, ice accumulations up to one half of an inch will be possible, primarily south of Knoxville. The greatest ice accumulations will likely be south of a line from Crossville to Tellico Plains, especially the southern Cumberland Plateau. * WHERE...Portions of southwest North Carolina, east Tennessee, and southwest Virginia. * WHEN...From late Friday night through Sunday evening. * IMPACTS...Expect power outages and tree damage due to the ice. Travel could be impossible. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...This is a complicated forecast and details regarding the location of heaviest snowfall and freezing rain totals remain uncertain. Significant changes could occur in the coming days so please continue to monitor future forecasts.

Let the f*ckery begin

I say this kinda in jest, kinda not.... I'm sure they've seen the runs that send a low into east TN bringing thunderstorms. They are probably like............ "I just don't want to right now".

Good depth junkie pattern for the west coast of Michigan. I have never seen normies b*tching this much though.

It's like the GFS took the criticisms from the last few years about its ensembles too much following the OP and was like, "fine, watch this"...

It was too good to share. Sad!

It can't show a bust if it doesn't run.