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I’m at .3 since July 10. Everything is dying fast. Had my roof redone 2 weeks ago and would love rain to help wash any remnants out of the gutters.

Follow NWS/WPC/NHC. I'll monitor for my own interest on whether the more benign GEFS prevails over the more vigorous EPS in our NYC subforum. 12z/16 EPS nw of envelope of remaining global solutions for ERIN. Glad I'm not fishing Atlantic waters Monday-Friday. EPS is as yet the most intriguing for 1-2" 12 hour general rainfall sometime between 8/19-21 for NJ/CT/NYS/PA, in part due to nw flow UL short wave with associated RRQ UL jet in the Maritimes and some relatively shallow low level ese moisture inflow related to the position of the H near Nova Scotia and the L near Lake Erie, connecting a bit with ERIN? EPS PW near 1.5 and increased over the past 24 hrs of EPS cycles for 12z Wed. Lots of fairly deep vorticity NYS into the mid Atlantic states along the boundary next week into Thu AM. 12z/16 EPS gusts much more significant our Atlantic waters vs more seaward GEFS and CMCE. Continues my attention on ultimate results for Tue-Wed-Thu AM next week. WPC at 1841z has added marginal risk for excessive D4 and 5. This line added at 2013z.

Radar has just been depressing this past month. I'm at 0.51" the last 30 days and the grass has gone fast Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

I picked up 4” on 10/29/2011 and 4 more inches total the rest of the winter.

Bout time for a Fall thread. It sure looks like the summer time pattern is starting to break down a bit early compared to recent years. Cold fronts could be getting further south than recent years if modeling is to be believed. And they are lined up one after another. I certainly don't think we have seen the last of the summer heat, but the sustained heat may well be over by Labor Day - ie weeks on end of high temps and humidity.

Pretty strong sea breeze all day today so high just reached 82°. Yesterday's high was 88° so heat wave here was 3 days.

What you linked is a great write up.

96/77/114. It’s disgusting outside.

Boom 90 Day 7 of longest 2025 heatwave rolls on

Nice isolated shower here. Couple of rumbles.

Pretty sultry out there with dews pushing 80. Looks like today/tonight's action should just miss northeast. Matches up nicely with yesterday's miss west.

The eye is getting smaller atleast looking at a loop of it just now

RE: US impacts, despite the westward adjustments, they overall will not change. The 500 dm heights of the WATL ridge may be slightly underdone versus modeling, and Erin may also be pumping the SW periphery at present due to its extreme intensity; however, the mid-latitudinal troughs are still coming with a dome behind them that is on a collision course with Erin by 70°W. Erin will go with the southerly flow as Azores ridging drops SW, hooking it N, then NE and swiftly out into the North Atlantic. Interestingly, Erin's deep transition combined with strong rebuilding of the Bermuda extension of WATL heights late next week may spell trouble for what might be down the pipeline, however. But we'll save that for the main seasonal thread.

Still impacts out there. The Virgin Islands are under a flash flood warning and are getting lashed by rain bands.

I sure would love to have a plane in there right now. The CDO is looking vicious.

Insane that the euro shifted west, icon is west and euro AI is west... of course there not tropical models but still insane

Nope, now I’m out in Dt Frederick (friend is visiting). Sun is shining and hitting up Maxwell’s (the walk back to Baker is gonna be tough lol).

From the main thread.

Erin's RI was insane as much as it was almost predictable with the hand it was dealt. Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Thankfully we can enjoy the absolute magnificence of Erin with no land masses affected. This would have been catastrophic if it hit land. .

Powerful Hurricane Erin continues to track on the southern edge of the model spread on Sat, as shown in the attached image. Erin's actual track in six hour increments is shown in the black X's, with NHC's main consensus forecast model TVCN shown in blue, with darker shades indicating more recent forecast model runs. You can see Erin made a notable bend to the left (turning from west-northwest to due west) in the past 12-18 hours and is currently about 50-75 miles south of consensus model forecasts from 24 hours ago. Here's an in-depth post I wrote on Fri describing my concerns that ensemble forecasts are underdoing W. Atl ridging, and explaining why US impacts can't be ruled out yet. It wasn't posted until now due to coming down with a stomach virus and some technical issues. My thoughts on Erin's track and potential US impacts haven't changed much since Fri. Would appreciate if you can take a look at the post and send me feedback (you can PM me here or write to [email protected]), as well as spread the word about my Substack. Thank you guys! https://hurricanehacker.substack.com/p/arrested-development

89 push push

It did that before and snapped right back within one cycle. I think it’s still an outlier until other guidance (GFS) comes along. The only thing that was of modest interest to me though on that run was something I noted days ago. Depending on the timing of the trough there may be a fast moving PRE that sets up somewhere. Again, unless the Euro knows what it’s doing this is all moot. ——— THIS IS A WEENIE PRODUCT FOR INEEDSNOW

Let the social media panic begin Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro XL using Tapatalk