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Yeah I liked the old format much better-was more in depth-this version is "dumbed down"

Probably historic charts intended as an April's Fool's homeage.

SLGT risk for the region on 13z OTLK from SPC... 0/5/15

1. The Euro did well with ONI in 2023, one of their best performances. But they did have a notable warm bias as was repeatedly shown with actual verifications vs progs over a near 20 year period, a large sample size. I spent lots of time researching this. A bias of any kind doesn’t at all mean that in a minority of cases verifications can’t be good. You know that. 2. The Euro when averaged out in only actual El Niño seasons in retrospect had a smaller warm bias than for other seasons, which I’ve also pointed out. However, it still had a small warm bias even for those with some big too warm misses even during Nino seasons. 3. Furthermore, RONI of that season peaked at only high end moderate/low end strong as the Euro doesn’t predict RONI. Currently, RONI is ~0.5C cooler than ONI. 4. Let’s see what actually happens. It could of course end up very strong/super even for RONI as I’m open too all possibilities. It’s way too early for high confidence in any strength. But remember to subtract ~0.5C for the best RONI prog.

As I take a hit off my coffee every morning, I keep hoping the modeling cinemas I'm about to let roll will at last depict a big correction ridge bloomin' over east/mid latitude continent. Day after day after day ... Nope. There's some semblance in the 500 mb ( Euro op) for a ridging to roll back up next week, but I can tell without looking, day after day after day... once again, it stops short of what I had in mind. So...then I go look at the sfc evolution for those 500 mb frames and yep ... piece of shit over the top high pressure driving in a BD butt bang, if not an outright cold front that seemingly shouldn't be be so aggressively slicing into the warm heights. Clearly doing so because the Euro model's is a corroborative engineering effort between Indeedsnow and NY Metro law enforcement - I don't wish CC upon the world. But it is unfortunately for the world, real. Seeing as that is the case, and we're pretty well solidly fucked to stop it - incredulously so ... - we may as well find some way to enjoy our MAGAdian-Darwinian cliff rush. We could at least wallow in our crapulence for creating a global temperature curve whence relative to date, the world is currently at a historic high ... by making it actually fucking warm here...not everywhere else! And no ... some random 75 F day here or there doesn't count.

I remember that well. Everyone thought the EURO was being way too aggressive and had a bad warm bias

I'll ask this question in here, forgive me if it's been discussed already. The new forecast discussion changes that the nws implemented a little while ago with the key messages format... anymore else hate it? The forecast covers the next seven days, if nothing really important is going on the discussion could ignore half or more of the period. Also it seems impossible to determine if it's been updated even if the timestamp has changed. It leaves more questions than provides answers .

Happy you're getting your much wanted rain. And it's staying away here.

But Anthony you actually did say winter was over a week ago or more…so this is not true. And what is that?

Thanks, Don. He also said “I may look at March days with maximum temperatures at or above the 90th percentile for better measure.” If he actually does this and posts it, would that be a better approach?

The davis vue and vantage also show the ten minute avg direction ln addition to the current snapshot direction... Always have found this very useful as this filters out the normal fluctuations of the vane.

Will be interesting to see if the Euro April 5th release turns out to be as reliable as its El Niño forecast issued back in April 2023. https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/2023-April-quick-look/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table

Still 45 here ...altho the sun's out. As I predicted ... WPC's razor sharp sfc analyses skill has the warm front retreated safely back N of here despite the fact that 0 home sites and even NWS' own KFIT are all clearly still not in a warm sector ....

A ridiculous low of 65 this morning. No rain at home or at work but a pretty good shower fell in between. Anyone see any snow piles left when you're out and about? Columbia Borough still has a pile about 2-3' deep in a vacant lot along the river. Last week at this time it was at least 5' so I'm not sure it has another week left in it or not. Still impressive considering how long it's been since it's snowed and how warm it's been over the past several weeks.

62 here already

Yeah, looks like another warmer month coming up as the Western and Eastern ridges merge like we saw in March.

Nah seasons in seasons. You won’t see that in January.

Yeah, we have been at daily record levels since the 23rd. https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3mhv47nbqqk2j Earth's global 2m surface temperature just posted the hottest March 23rd on record, and likely the hottest March 23rd in the last 120,000+ years. 8:38 AM · Mar 25, 2026

12/30/00?

Always funny to me how our warmest weather near the coast this time of year is after the cold front passes.

Good chance of hitting 80 here today if we can keep westerly wind for a while.

70 / 55 in / out sun. Some 80s in the warmest spots, enough sun , otherwise 70s and some afternoon showers, rain. What goes up must come down - for 18 hours - chill down Thursday with onshore / backdoor. Back up Friday clear out and warms up 20-25 degrees from Thu back to upper 60s / low 70s. Warm Easter weekend , showers and rain on Easter. Near normal next week by way of back and forth with the coolest period 4/6 - 4/8. Much warmer in the 4/10 - mid month period and beyond with ridging into the East coast.

It did well last year. I was skeptical it would end up that cold. Interesting to see how it does this year.

New Cansips out on TropicalTidbits. Similar to last month with lots of blocking. Drier for the east coast than typical for a Niño, but it's a long range forecast.

Back in the market?