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No kidding, will keep eyes on this til the end.

Sorry, ...that's not the right hole, honey

Euro eps sniffed out last week first I think.. hoping for the best lol

Don’t trust a forecast that can’t spell ‘Storm’.

Generally speaking, we need to get inside the 48 hour mark for its reliability.

Snow growth should be better this weekend....it was lacking until that final stanza Monday night in this past event.

I like this trend on the EPS

Need that 100-150 miles further west for something major

Thanks Don! With the apparent blocking and the +PNA duration this may line up perfectly.

Perhaps we see some north movement in 12z suite today. I have to take my wife to Duke for treatment Sunday. Gotta figure out what day we will go.

After all of that warmth to start the month, the cold has erased almost all of it. TRI is only +0.4 with likely four cold days left still to input. TRI should finish BN for temps this month but within the seasonal norm range...which is astounding to me after how warm it was to start the month. It is very difficult to erase 3 days of mid 60s temps in the norms. It very well could bring the overall winter average to almost exactly normal to this date - December and January combined. Some wild swings to be be able to pull that off.

For you, Aldie, and me....

On the video I posted there is mention that the precipitation field should be more expansive. Yeah there will be sharp gradients but the field should be further west

That’s a good first call map, IMO, and I like the more cautious (and responsible) approach. The only tweak I’d make would be a simple mention of “higher localized amounts possible” in your 6-10” zone. It’s obviously still a little early for such specifics, but I’ll be surprised if some areas don’t see a foot.

NY metro is the weakest forum of the 3 major ones. Like 5 or 6 regular mets.

I think that was like 2 days later? I recall that.

Saw a -15 and a bunch of -12s and -13s in the best radiating spots in S Belchertown/ Ludlow. Sensor caveats apply. But the elevated spots weren't close to that, 0 to maybe a couple degrees below. Not totally fake cold, just kinda fake.

NAM is off and running. Close enough to it's medium range it may start to matter, at least when reviewing 5h panels.

There’s a late shitstreak that drops south toward New England that keeps the heights suppressed a little longer than they would be otherwise. That PV lobe is pivoting and dropping southeast at this point and the heights (that string of vorticity over us) really wants to move north more if that other s/w wasn’t there. Maybe in the end it wouldn’t matter, but anything that can relax the gph field I’d think would be a benefit

Stop whining…this is winter. Embrace. Enjoy. New England at its finest right now. This is what you moved up here for.

Jim Cantore@JimCantore · 38m An east coast storm will evolve over the weekend as jet streams phase together to create very deep low pressure off the east coast. This is a whole different animal than the last storm, but COASTAL IMPACTS like COASTAL FLOODING, OVERWASH, and BLIZZARD are all still in play especially the 757 and eastern NC as well as Cape Cod and the Islands. At this time it appears most of the worst impacts could be east of i95. This does not mean there won't be snow in parts of the southeast as the upper parts of the storm create lift and pump out lighter snows across the Mid-South and the Mid-Atlantic. Even some areas that are dealing with crippling ICE and power outages can see some SNOW. Various models still have a variety of solutions so there is still a lot of fine tuning to go. All these low positions below are for 12z (7am) Sunday morning.

Don’t want to be debbie downer but most of you do realize there is always a screw zone on the NW flank of these coastal systems, right? I don't think anyone knows where that will be at this time. My guess would be west of 77

It makes sense of itself ... which is not an aver as to it's winning in this thing, but given the larger super synoptic structure wrt ridge and troughs and teleconnectors therein, that is what this should all be looking like. Rather elegantly, too The CFS - I believe but am not certain - is a climate fusion with GFS output. It's possible the the climate integral part of that is pulling these E solutions of the operational GFS, back W where they really should be - given to the aforementioned synoptic arguments. Interesting...

Yes, during the second half of February, PNA- is better for significant or major snowfalls due to the shortening of wave lengths.