All Activity

I am in Paris from the 1st to the 9th, so I would bet on a major storm within that window…

The curse is lifted! I apologize!

It sounds like a damn crow convention outside my house to today. Birds are everywhere in the neighborhood Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Just wanted to quickly pop in and say thanks to @Carvers Gap @jaxjagman @*Flash* I read a lot of what you guys post in here, its very informative, detailed, and easy to understand. I really appreciate your posts and discussions. If i missed someone, my deepest apologies.

I’m very optimistic for January.

That's a common snowy time frame too.

“What happens in December, the winter will remember.” We can hope.

Looks about a little over 4 inches here on the very southern edge of Springfield. Just was hoping for some of the big rates and a clap of thunder but its all good. December was quite the wintry month 9.8 inches on the month and lots of cold wintry days with at least a little snow cover.

The indexes are loading the 7th thru the 12th of January, which is well matched with both experience based, as well as recent a-priori on pattern modulation discussed in the ending pages of the prior monthly thread In terms of standard confidence for this range? above normal for +PNA related event(s). Doesn't mean something can't break favorably prior to but from a holistic/all-inclusive field application the front and end of that time range above is the still blurry focus - which means we are free to move it some if needed. I'm not sure about events within the first week itself... That's a modulation time and yes ... events tend to happen when there's big mass-field modulations, but in this case it's gradual improvement of probability from the 1st to 7th ( as in lower to higher). It's almost like the previous pattern resists but then snaps all at once along that range. We'll see how it goes Beyond that's the entry into the weeklies which I find are less useful

Finish with about 6.1" here in Lindenhurst, had 6.5 from the last storm

Done.

This is from Will on SNE. I like the look IMO

Ringing in the new year with renewed hope for the white stuff piling up in our yards. LFG!

And you know the blocking is having an effect on modeling when it is trying to snow in Louisiana, Mobile, AL, and in the Panhandle of Florida late in the 6z Euro AIFS deterministic run - this also found on ensemble members of the 6z GEFS and 6z Euro AIFS ensemble. Cold shots like that have not been an uncommon occurrence during recent Nina winters, and is a bit of a thorn for those of us who have been well below snow climatology for several years in eastern sections of the forum. Haha! The 6z Euro AIFS even has snow to the South Carolina coast. So, that should give you all an idea of where modeling went overnight and at 6z.

Weeklies trended even colder 2nd half of Jan, held for the first half.

In case you haven't seen DT's overnight vid, worth the watch. 17:26 is worth screen-shotting for posterity...

Going with 4.5” in Huntington Station. Thanks for everything!

Up to 14.something on the season. Well below temp avg december and a few snowfalls that made the season feel like christmas for the first time in a long time. Anyone complaining is a nutcase.

That’s not a particularly cold pattern shown with the lower heights over AK but it’s not a torch for us either because of NAO blocking. It’s occurring during a favorable climatological period too where the averages are already pretty cold. Weeklies have been rebuilding the WPO/EPO ridge after that though which would bring more reinforcing cold air if it verified.

My brother in Ulster county said 15. I suspect some slant sticking. But who knows.

Records: Highs: EWR: 63 (1949) NYC: 63 (1949) LGA: 63 (1949) JFK: 63 (2015) Lows: EWR: 3 (1948) NYC: 6 (1872) LGA: 9 (1989) JFK: 8 (1948) Historical: 1869 - A post Christmas storm in New York and Vermont produced record storm totals of 30 inches at Burlington, VT, and 39 inches at Montpelier VT. A public emergency was declared in Vermont. (David Ludlum) 1892 - An Atlantic coast storm produced a record 18.6 inches of snow at Norfolk, VA, including 17.7 inches in 24 hours. The storm also produced 9.5 inches of snow at Raleigh NC, and brought snow to northern Florida for the first time in 35 years. (26th- 28th) (The Weather Channel) 1933: A cold arctic air mass brought record cold from the Midwest to parts of the East. Locations that reported record low temperatures included: Rochester, MN: -30 °F, Waterloo, IA: -28 °F, Mobridge, SD: -19 °F, Dubuque, IA: -18 °F, Rockford, IL: -16 °F, Ste. St. Marie, MI: -15 °F-Tied, Mansfield, OH: -8 °F-Tied, Youngstown, OH: 0 °F, Akron, OH: -2 °F and Newark, NJ: 5 °F. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History ) 1948: In northern Canada, the town of Resolute in the Nunavut Provence recorded their coldest December day as the temperature plunged to -50 °F. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History ) 1969: Boston, Massachusetts recorded 4.17 inches of precipitation on the 26th and 27th the greatest 24 hour precipitation total, for December. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events) 1982 - The worst Louisiana rainstorm in more than 100 years came to an end. More than 18 inches fell at Vinton, LA, during the three day storm. Flooding was widespread, and property damage was estimated at 100 to 200 million dollars. President Reagan visited the state and declared ten parishes in northeastern Lousiana disaster areas. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - A winter storm produced snow and high winds in Wyoming, Colorado and Nebraska. Denver CO experienced its worst snowstorm since December 1983 as high winds gusting to 46 mph created near blizzard conditions, whipping the fifteen inch snow into drifts five feet high, and closing Stapleton Airport. Snowfall totals in the foothills southwest of Denver ranged up to 42 inches, at Intercanyon. Blizzard conditions raged across southeastern Wyoming through the day, stranding 300 holiday travelers in the tiny town of Chugwater. Heavier snowfall totals included 19 inches at La Grange WY, and 22 inches at Elsmere NE. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1987: Today marks the end of the infamous 2-day ice storm which began as freezing rain and sleet before sunrise on Christmas Day in Oklahoma. This ice storm left parts of Oklahoma without power for over a week. Sleet prevailed across the western and northern parts of Oklahoma City, while freezing rain devastated southern and eastern parts of the metro area. Despite heavy sleet and ice accumulations of up to 2 inches, total snowfall was only a trace. 1988 - Severe thunderstorms developing along a cold front in the south central U.S. spawned a dozen tornadoes in Mississippi between early afternoon and sunrise the following day. A tornado at Harperville destroyed five chicken homes killing thousands of chickens. Strong thunderstorm winds gusted to 80 mph at Rolling Fork MS. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Half a dozen cities in the northeastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Elkins, WV, with a reading of 13 degrees below zero. Watertown NY was the cold spot in the nation with a morning low of 37 degrees below zero. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 2000: Amarillo, TX was buried under 20 inches of snow in a 2-day snowstorm. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History ) 2004 - A major storm system affected parts of the western United States during December 27-29, bringing a variety of weather conditions to the region. Heavy rainfall broke daily precipitation records at some locations in California. Very heavy snow fell across the Sierra Nevada Mountains, with some areas receiving several feet of accumulation. Winds with this weather system gusted over 65 mph at some coastal and mountain locations in California. 2010: December Nor'easter- The Nor'easter on December 26 - 27 dumped 10-20 inches of snow from North Carolina to New England, stranding thousands of holiday air travelers. This was the fourth major snowstorm to affect the region this year.

Who wants to start the January thread?

Just finished taking a walk and there was a very light dusting of snow on top of the sleet/freezing rain.

Still some light OES flurries here.

14 to 1 here for my 4 inches .29w/e