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  2. Was just going to post about that too. The other *possibility* is if the bowing line segment approaching Stephens City can surge a bit more east versus south east - it wouldn't take much trajectory change to get at least the southern half of MoCo in on the show.
  3. Reminds me of Catatumbo lightning over Lake Maracaibo, Venezuela. There they have up to one discharge every few seconds...ALL NIGHT LONG, every night, for several months.
  4. Well said. I agree with layering the Maryland counties adjacent to the Potomac River on the watch in case upscale growth occurs, but it's going to be tough. Our only chance seems to be from those storm just NW of Martinsburg getting their act together.
  5. 0.23” last night loud thunder but heavy stuff missed west
  6. Stephens City special incoming
  7. hopefully the stronger it gets the more it feels the tug.. If I was there and it missed I would be pist
  8. The long range on the Euro and the GFS couldn't be more different.
  9. Late to the party, but I got absolutely crushed in the Lowlands around 1215-1230 last night. Woke me up out of my sleep. Thunder shaking the house and torrential rain. I managed to go back to sleep, thankfully, but that was a crazy little stretch when it came through. Reminded me of nocturnal storms in the Mississippi Valley.
  10. It was nice and sunny and then suddenly black! I missed the storm last night but saw a lot of lightning on my camera. Supposedly this front finally pushes through tomorrow?
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    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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  12. It's interesting that while this is observably weighted E ... the 3.4 is historically high.
  13. what else am i going to do? take you seriously? lol
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    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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  16. My PWS recorded .35", but given that it fell in :10, and was falling sideways most of that time, maybe more?
  17. Time for the daily monsoon rains in the Western Maryland mountains. Feels more like Florida. We don't seem to get normal rain anymore. Its blow out the gullies and wash away all that mulch and top soil from your new landscaping type rains. Even put in rip rap and culverts but those get overwhelmed.
  18. I’m sorry but this is just incorrect to say it’s not the warmest. You should specify that it’s not the highest relative Nino 3.4 index. To flat out say “it’s not the warmest” is incorrect. If my local airport reaches 101, that would be the warmest temperature on record, since the all-time record is 100. If i come up with some “relative temperature” it doesn’t change that fact. The fact still stands that Nino 3.4 is at its all time highest, and has been consistently.
  19. Picked up 0.22' of rain this morning. So, 2.04" on the month and 18.69" since July 1.
  20. Models really missed how east based an event this has become. Not that big of a surprise since they can’t really can’t forecast the WWBs with that much precision beyond a week or two. This is the reason that Nino 3.4 leveled off in August and Nino 4 declined. It has resulted in the highest Nino 1+2 daily anomaly on record and it’s only early September.
  21. I have children and grandchildren. Still don't worry about it. Like I said, too many other things imho that are going to "get us." lol
  22. Still a good bit of MLCIN over the DC/Baltimore area on mesoanalysis. DCAPE is not good NE of the Potomac essentially but ramps up quickly S/SW of there.
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