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Gonna hold you to that-

Subtle improvements through 84 on the Euro I think. Hard to say yet if just noise

Got sleet/freezing rain and strong winds in Mascot.

its the AI is actually more Dr no than dr no

I don't think it would get going in time....

Snow line on the move in eastern Ohio, with rain & snow mixed at CAK. Automated sensors at PHD and ZZV were reporting “UP” suggesting sleet or a rain/snow mix.

18z is not even out yet

Euro 18z isnt convinced that Jan 23-24 is a cutter

He's now Santa clause

I’ll try not to be (too) annoying tonight. Looks like the band is stopping its westward momentum and trying to come back east. Would be huge if true.

January 14 1981: Over 24,000 Canada Geese are present at Silver Lake in Rochester. 1952: A sleet and freezing rain storm develops across Minnesota from St Cloud south into Iowa. 1,100 Northwestern Bell telephone wires are knocked down. The Buffalo Ridge in the Pipestone area is the hardest hit with ¾ inches of solid ice on Northern State Power wires with icicles to 3 inches. Northwestern Bell reported ice up to 1 ½ inches on their wires in the same area. Thunder and a shower of ice pellets accompanied the storm in New Ulm and Mankato. Minneapolis General Hospital treated 81 people, victims of falls on icy streets.

And it works 90% of the time!

Euro ticked NW but still a miss. It now has some snow for Saturday.

Definitely something to this. NS dominant patterns are chaotic- turbulent, with vortices flying around all over the place- very difficult for model guidance to get all the wave interactions and timing correct, which ofc have a big impact on sensible weather. Southern stream dominant patterns tend to be prominent in El Nino years and generally have a "quieter" NS, esp with a NA blocking regime. Just a matter of waiting for a significant SS wave to track eastward and snow on us(hopefully).

Mike Maze at WRAL only showed the European and said he wasn’t expecting anything with temperatures above freezing. I notice a trend at WRAL. Downcast everything until it is actually within 24 hours.

It Might be on to something. It’s not the only model showing some very wintry set ups after the 24th or so.

Yes we are here for the big chase. The next 1/23/2016 or 2/12/2006 or myriad of other huge storms. The past 20 years have produced monsters on East Coast. Just because we are in a 5 year drought does not mean cannot pull off miracle.

Man, too bad we can't lock in the entire run of 18z skynet Euro....winter of yore.

Euro AI is like 75-100 miles from being a really good event South of Boston, as is, kind of just another middling low end advisory

We have some AA to AAA duster prospects, definitely been worse but I'm also itching for a big league event

Low center was def a little east but precip thrown further west

January rain might be my least favorite weather phenomena.

The low center ticked E but it was stronger with a larger QPF field, so the QPF looked slightly west. It's kind of what @Typhoon Tip was saying earlier about how the center can move slightly E but the impact of sensible wx can move slightly W if the storm is stronger/larger. Either way, we're talking error bars here....nothing big.

Worst part of les, nothing worse than sucking dust while someone gets smoked a few miles away

I think that was pure rage, not anything planned lol