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I liked TTPD but I get why it’s an acquired taste. If you’re not in the mood to be depressed that’s not the album for you.

Well after digging a bit more using AI, that winter seems to have been more suckass than I thought for the Tug hill region lol. Because of the exceptionally powerful 2015–16 El Niño event, the lake-effect snow season started late and lacked its typical persistence. [1] Estimated Snowfall Totals While Montague can average between 200 and 300+ inches annually, estimates and nearby cooperative tracking stations put the broader town area's total roughly between 110 and 140 inches for the entire 2015–16 season: [1] Hooker (Hamlet within Montague): While Hooker holds legendary status for massive winters (and logged a whopping 339.3 inches much later during the 2024–25 season), it barely crossed the low triple-digits during the tracking span of this El Niño winter. [1, 2] Constableville 1.2 NW Station: Located just outside the Montague town line on the plateau, this official GHCN daily climate station wrapped up its main core monitoring period (Dec 1, 2015 – Feb 29, 2016) with just 96.97 inches of recorded snow. [1]

12z HRRR had a general 1" - 2" regionwide, with a narrow strip of 3" - 4" near Laurel.

That’s why I’m still there. Get eagles news before the papers and outlets. Easily follow weather accounts and soccer. The other crap bleeds into my feed.

Maybe heading up towards i70 later this afternoon to see what this MCV in Indiana brings. Would like to see a bit more destabilization, tho.

I’ll admit I’m somewhat biased. Travis’s brothers summer place is a couple blocks from where my parents live. I’ve run into him many times over the years. He seems like a genuinely nice and fun guy. Also charitable. He does this bar event each year to raise money for autism which because of my own personal experience is important to me. I’ve never met his brother, just missed him once actually. But Jason talks about him like he’s a great guy and given the family I doubt he’s a jerk. When he started dating Taylor was before I listened to her at all but my opinion was “good for him, I hope they’re happy”. Silly me I didn’t realize I’m supposed to hate everyone who’s more successful than me. I’ll try harder.

Yeah same with Syracuse. I think that area is generally drier during a Nino wrt synoptic storms.

I seem to recall 15-16 was Albany’s least snowy year on record? Not an exact comp obviously, but shows that the synoptic snows at least can struggle up there in strong Ninos.

I think the Tug Hill area received somewhat less to right about average snowfall for 2015-16 depending on the exact area, and that winter seems to be a good comp for this upcoming Nino. I would guess there will be more mild/snowless periods than typical for that area in between big snow events. PSU can dig into the other analogs. eta- Nov into Dec was quite warm relative to avg even up there, so the lack of snow during that period would have had some impact on seasonal totals.

i've been on these boards for over a decade. no assumptions needed

Our warmest since 1980: 16-7 (Niña) 22-3 (Nina) 19-20 (WN) 18-19 (Nino) 15-16 (Nino) 21-2 (Nina) 12-13 (CN) 11-12 (Nina)

I thought KH3 was okay tbh

Please be better than KH3. That's all I ask.

Could you post your thoughts on what you think will happen up in the snowbelt east of Lake Ontario. Just for fun while there's low attendance lol

Finally... https://comicbook.com/gaming/news/kingdom-hearts-4-release-window-and-first-new-world-confirmed-in-new-trailer/

Yes, i agree. and yes, avoid social media w/ all its hype and gloom and doom rhetoric! Looking at radar, you'd think that Lala is easily a min hurricane, but it shows how things can be misleading. A less apparent mitigating factor is that Lala started out as a monsoonal system, so it already had a broad pressure field and center. Monsoonal TCs generally do not tighten up much, esp. for its inner core, so I think that why you have a clear eye feature on radar, but the winds are less than what you would expect. The eye is now apparent on IR, but it is very ragged and the convection is not smoothly banded around it. That indicates shear and dry air still present. Recon not since last night, so the one en route now will be interesting, but Doppler velocities suggest little change through 15z. The overall point I was conveying from the start is that Lala is not you typical TC, and had more against it than for from the start, so odds of RI were low and it intensity curve would not be like many TC evolution we see for one moving W in the deep tropics. These kind of details count. I see far too many "social-meteorologists" and hype-masters gloss over things and treat all TCs the same as if it is "one-size fits all." Nothing could be further from the truth! For example, I bet there are some out there that are saying, "radar shows a clear eye, and now there is an eye on satellite, why isn't it upgraded to a hurricane?!" And yes, I can see why. Say Lala was far at sea. In the absence of in situ recon data, going by satellite estimates alone, when an eye is present, even if ragged, that usually mean min hurricane strength (Dvorak Technique says this). But again, one needs to examine all data available and the details for a proper assessment. My hope contributing to this forum is point out the finer details of TCs and their nuances/idiosyncrasies b/c the variance from TC to TC can be very large.

Seems like the center will pass well south of the big island, but with elevation I’m sure some very strong winds will occur on land

The Andy Dalton era gets underway tonight. Goosebumps!

Yep looking active around the region.

I’m a mix of pop and folk songs personally, and my sister loves Taylor so as an extension I do too. Red and enchanted are great, but 1989 will always be a defining album of my teen years. Last year did a full song listen through and realized how good Folklore and Evermore are, though I prefer the crane wives for folk. Sad to see she’s highk fallen off since midnights but is what it is. As for why people hate her she is a very successful women who endorsed a 2024 presidential candidate and that, for some completely unknown and unguessable reason, annoys some people.

Thunderstorms started early today. Frequent lightning with the current cluster in Haywood County.

3 days with rain in a row here: 0.13" Wed, 0.97" Thurs (though could have done without the 1"+ hail which caused a little garden damage) and 0.39" yesterday. Can we make it 4? That would be the first time in a long, long time.