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  2. Typhoon Tip
    I've noticed that two over recent seasons... I suspect ( not intending to impugn any organization ) that it's largely cultural/institutional reliance on modelling. When and if a TC is born out of an invest, if it is ahead of the modeling, that's when we get the jump - because they can't wait for the models, if the TC is there, it's there. Along these lines, the model reliance is also why sometimes you look out there and see an impressive wave that even appears to be closing off a circulation, and they have the basin in nada status. It's because no model has it developing. The models went through an evolutionary upgrade, proven in their forecast statistics. They became objectively better at initialization, improving over human intuition and monitoring in prior generations. I don't personally have any issue with the model reliance - their performance is what it is. They may not be ideal with aspects like RI this or shear that after the fact, but in so far as putting the TC on the map -
  3. forkyfork
    facts don't care about your feelings
  4. adelphi_sky
    Interesting rain shower this morning in Adelphi driving the kids to school. It came out of nowhere. Looking at the sky you just saw cirrus clouds and blue. We weren't under any nimbus or low deck clouds. Just blue sky with wispy clouds and it was a moderate rain shower for like a few minutes. You could see the rain in the sky but above and around it was blue and cirrus. First time I experienced that.
  5. forkyfork
    check out the climate disaster that just happened in nepal. how many more is this nino going to unleash?
  6. Brasiluvsnow
    YEP that was some serious noise and water that took place
  7. SACRUS
  8. qg_omega
    Stormy morning
  9. Birds~69
    It just looks and feels like downpours will happen at some point. Thinking 2"+... 72F/DP 71F
  10. LakePaste25
    The plains drought forcing the pattern is Eric’s theory as well.
  11. weatherwiz
    What's with this recent uptick of tropical systems going straight from Invest to Tropical Storm
  12. MarcmmKU
    As always with CC it was warmer than normal cause of high dews causing overnight lows a degree or two warmer than normal. It did not "feel" like a warmer august in the slightest.
  13. nw baltimore wx
    I love that her name is Dolly. Get some heavy remnants into Pigeon Forge and I might have to change my spiritual beliefs.
  14. Cyclone-68
    Unbelievable…..
  15. Weather Will
    WB 14Z HRRR
  16. Winter Wizard
    I'm not sure what, if any implications, this will have going forward or exactly what the root cause is but it's pretty clear August 2026 behaved much differently than other Super Nino cases (1982, 1997, 2015) and was essentially a hotter version of 2023. I don't think there was anyone in the industry who predicted anything close to a recor Right away, you could probably attribute it, at least in part, to much higher national drought coverage than we've seen in other Nino cases since 2000.
  17. soadforecasterx
    Ended up with 1.11" with that storm that rolled through.
  18. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
    Check this out: Clomid tips - very detailed.
  19. NEG NAO
  20. CoastalWx
    NW CT and Berks. Yawn.
  21. weatherwiz
    Nice mid-level meso on that cell headed towards Fairfield County.
  22. Damage In Tolland
    In shocking news …
  23. bluewave
    August was warmer than normal for most of the area using the warmest 1991-2020 climate normals.
  24. ORH_wxman
    I've said that one way to cheat our way into a good winter is to get something like Dec 1997 pattern (pretty close to normal temps that month) but instead of Feb 1998, we get a more classic Nino Feb.
  25. wxmeddler
    That's an all-timer from the NAM3K
  26. NorthHillsWx
    The aren't, they are calling for post-tropical aka open wave
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