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Ha! So excited to see it all go over the next week. Was a good winter but glad it’s pretty much over!

I wouldn’t get too hung up on models generating convection, and then using that as QPF distribution Thing is that these general isenreopic event types are better handled by the coarser smoothed solutions. The meth models are going to spuriously trigger convection that is completely driven by chaos in the model and then that’s gonna turn around and fuck up all the works

For those thinking this weather is a bit early. Wait about 10 more days and things will definitely correct course.

3k not nearly as good as 12k. Handling of the convection upstream seems to be jumping around.

NAM arrives at the party

Let’s get play dough

I'd still like to know when, if ever, Jan 25-26th is coming. There are some pretty puny Cat 1s in that list so i have no doubt its obviously higher than a Cat 1. Has to be at least 2 or 3. I dont know if theyll ever do it, if they skipped right over to Feb Thats a large area of 8-18 over major US cities

Nam going wild

00z HRRR says Boston sees moderate snow accumulations...not buying that at the moment. Severe gradient just to the south, little to nothing down at the Braintree split.

HRRR has SEMass (Plymouth and Bristol counties) radiating more than anyone tonight. Soundings for 11Z show 20˚ at the surface and 50˚ juuuust above the surface. Cranberry bog special. TAN and MVY already down to 30˚, OWD at 32˚. Cranberry bog special!

This is going to be one of those years where the trees are still bare on April Fool’s Day isn’t it?

Dry weather will be short-lived. Additional rain will arrive tomorrow and continue into Friday. A general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall is likely. Highs will likely reach the lower 40s tomorrow and Friday. It will turn noticeably warmer during the weekend. Long Island and coastal sections could be noticeably cooler than interior sections on a number of days on account of a chilly onshore flow. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around February 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.28°C. Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was +19.53 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.240 today.

That’s a lot of models to be on crack…just saying.

That would be a no. Watched lightning go from W/NW to N to N/NE as storm skirted JUST to the north. Still got enough sprinkles to get everything wet.

You got it! I think of the Mid-South starting with the MEM CWA, then add West Kentucky. Might some add to the halfway point of KY/TN. Sometimes for chasing I'll fudge it to northwest Alabama. Vague boundaries help hedge forecasts, to be honest haha. Note that all of Mississippi and all of all of Alabama are considered Deep South too. East Tennessee into northeast Alabama I'll often refer to as the Tennessee Valley. Of course the River goes on downstream curling north into the Ohio River, but at that point I'm talking Mid-South. Speaking of all this.. Mid-month cold could start Mid-South. However it should eventually have a little longer stay in the Valley. Keep in mind cold in March is nothing like cold in Feb. Shouldn't be too bad. At the same time, Mountains could get late season snow showers a couple times. Moderator / Admin: Feel free to move this and/or copy to one of the resources threads.

Welcome to Seattle

New winter weather advisory/winter storm watches over 6000 ft

Though, I'll admit.... Not a fan of temp spikes, high or low, just annoying at best.

If it's on a weekend, great.....but I'm taking Friday off...fu(k this shit. I work on the only major hill in Chelsea and it's awful in the wintry weather.

Happens all the time, right?

Probably intensity dependent too.

Almost an inch of ZR near Charlton. although doesn’t that model do weird things with that? (Hardie HRRR HRRR)

There’s a pretty big area just sitting near 0C between 750-850 for many hours. Tough forecast.

HRRR, GFS, Euro are on crack.

My guess is 30.5-31.5 for most of it . Since it’s happening at night that will assist. I don’t know that it will be damaging at all . But I’ve lived here long enough to know there will be some decent accretion . Will this be ORH 2008.. no. But it has the chance to be pretty significant all things considered . I just hope the sleet line stays north of here .