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Go look at all -QBO La Nina's that had any early strat warming (not full blown SSW). January is the coldest month with thise analogs unlike the +QBO LA Nina's that basically all end winter early JAN. No way to know if it shakes out that way but it is interesting nonetheless.

Lmao.

Eric Webb says coastal enhancement shuld occur

I was just looking at this on the GFS model, looks absolutely wild.

Some places in Virginia are going to see almost as much snow as we have seen the past 6 winters combined in 3 days before December 9th.

Some of the AI models are radically different on Day 10. It will be interesting to see which is modeled better.

IME, it's not very accurate with pinpoint stuff during snowstorms. Hourly runs are kinda jumpy. I personally don't like it much during the winter as it's often more misleading that other mesos like the 3k nam at close range. It can be good with summer thunderstorms. Especially lines of them but even then it can be jumpy beyond 6-8 hrs. Since i don't follow it much I could easily be wrong and it may be more reliable than i think.

Alright lets clear the air of this thread with an actual meteorological post! Looking forward to next Friday and our first potential northern crew non-skunk storm. As we know the NS is an absolute hot mess this week with vorticity flying around everywhere so the forecast is nowhere near set in stone. However, we can still try to pick out what to watch for! So lets start off with what goes right on the Euro which manages to snow over some of us. We can see our embedded vorticity max diving south over the central plains. The first thing that would help us out is a more pumped PNA ridge in order to have it become more amplified and further south (this is more important for me than most posters). However, we can also see that amplifying our vorticity in any way will help out! Compare this to the GFS Our shortwave never had a real chance. Look at that line of vorticity over NoVa and the bigger lobe above our shortwave acting as a squashing force due to its W-E orientation vs the Euros N-S. So, we should look for that line of vorticity to appear like the Euro as weaker and more out of the way. Additionally, we should look for a stronger shortwave with the lobe above it interacting positively via a N-S orientation. TDLR: We need less confluence ahead of the wave and good orientation of the lobe above the wave. Though, considering the amount of interactions no idea what will actually happen!

There's pretty good support for some wintry precipitation for the I-84 corridor early Wed. This has been trending colder for several days. Some guidance gets it as close as Morris, Rockland, Westchester counties. A cold Tue night will give some a chance, but the boundary layer will warm quickly early Wed. Does the initial precip. pass well to the north and then basically a cold front passage, or does it shift far enough south for a few hour burst of snow/IP/ZR... something to watch...

How dare you

Saturday was about as awesome as it can be with (sort of) 2 ways down. Gorgeous afternoon especially once the clouds cleared out.

Exactly. We just need to watch the trends today. That colder dryer air is pressing between Fredericksburg and Richmond right now. We need that low to crank to pull that down into the system for us to make any hay.

yeah I don't think anyone's looking for average or above average snowfall this year.

F**k Greta…that moron. She’s become very irrelevant very quickly.

Eh, but those days are over, right? It’s like manual transmissions or writing in cursive. .

You seem to have a very narrow and rigid way of looking at weather and statistics. That's fine. Considering the relatively small sample size of seasons and the highly variable nature of local weather, I prefer to use a less rigid framework when assessing future possibilities... just a difference of preference and interpretation.

It appears with the TPV sitting in southern Canada, these things ultimately trend south.

Flag Ponds isn't what it used to be a decade ago- the erosion has been extreme. Last I heard, DNR is working with the county on a plan, but I'm sure Calvert will screw it up like they do everything else. I won't derail with anymore SOMD banter, but I'd caution anyone from making a long drive to go there, especially if you like beach lol

Yeah the longer the wind is onshore the worse we're going to do down here. Hopefully we'll see have a few good hours of precip when that wind shift finally happens

Temp going up with the heaviest rain rates of the day. Lmao. You can’t do anything but just chuckle at this point. We have to be the most unlucky group this side of the Mississippi.

Ensembles have been showing a breakdown of the west coast ridge for a while. This should give us a nice relaxation in temperatures. DT was having none of it during his extended discussion that I saw on Saturday. We will have to see what actually occurs and if the breakdown does occur. Telecommunications weren’t strong enough last I checked to argue one way or the other. La Niña is waning which has big implications down the road. .

Yes looking at the reflectivity bright banding shows some fatties to your southwest. I might cash in at the tail end of the event when it's pulling away. Keep us posted with some observations today please. Really can't ask for a better monday.

12z NAM (12km) is a little less snowy then 6z. But the 3km is still pretty cold. It has brief snow to ZR and back to snow. I'm not sure I buy that scenario. This looks more like frozen to rain to cold/dry with flurries to me. Either way... interesting solution. As modeled, the 3km NAM is cold enough for travel impacts N&W of NYC. I'm skeptical since surface temps tend to overperform warm with a SLP to our northwest. But other guidance is pretty cold too... so we'll see.

Just around the corner from @Tullioz and 33°F. Deck and vehicles in driveways are covered with a dusting. Roads are just wet.

Nasty day out there with the wind and temps holding in the mid 20's. Deep January like day.