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See my edit. I'm not upset at all. Just need to be clear.

GFS correcting west now

this is a stronger and even more east based event than 1998 and we have 30 years of warming on top of our base state

Just light, off and on showers since about sunrise here, but still adding up. Around 1.35” since Sunday morning.

I hope you are not upset. Debate/discussion is what science is all about, so talking about this all is not a counterproductive notion. I was talking in general as how things are not always done by meteorological standards only and there are many external factors out there. That's not a conspiracy, that's just how society is, and not unique to the wx field. I don't know specific reason(s) why Sandy called what is was at landfall, but something doesn't jibe w/ empirical observations and standard/practices done w/ many other TCs in the similar state of transition, and it is not just me who have questioned things. And we are talking about what it is called (tropical or not), not specific reasons why, and just that it is not always objective or supports the evidence. You wrote: "Whatever their reasons in 1991 for a large hybrid system that gains an inner symmetrical tropical surface low." Sandy was very similar to this. It was a large hybrid system once it got to the Bahamas, then then on the day of landfall, and inner symmetrical tropical sfc low developed. So I go back to the consistency of standard/practices here. As I have said, we've seen many times NHC keep a TC tropical when it clearly not anymore, or declare something that does not fit the definition of a TC, but it is close to land. Whether it is close to land or not should be irrelevant. I mentioned this w/ Fay, when another noted they seemed to delay calling it even a TD when it was likely it was since it was no threat to land. Semantics do count. What something is called officially or not has significant impact, such as in the legal profession. And exact details/meanings count in the sciences. An ET low and TC has a number of similarities, but also sig differences. Same thing for a mesocyclonic tornado and landspout. And they way things are, what something is called or not does matter outside the met sciences in the social/economic/political realms and their influences are there.

I’ll be up late waiting for my 4+” of precip

Hard to beleive, I know. Reminds me of the old days in my youth when we used to get storms out here.

1" on the dot up here. Feels and looks like Fall on the first day of Fall. Hopefully the first day of Winter delivers similarly...to Winter that is!

I've been mentioning this for days.. its been showing up on some of the ensemble members

Bad miss down here too. My only measurable rain was an hour shower 5-6pm yesterday. Nothing since. Next couple days look more promising but being wedged in will keep a lid on anything convective. 2-3" is prob off the table. Lakes remain thirsty and very low

Phone has been ringing off the hook this morning for firewood. Folks thinking to themselves in another three or four months this could be a cold rain.

It was 88 years ago yesterday. Can't even imagine if something similar today. Rapid forward speed was unprecedented and aided in keeping intensity up, piling up surge and making the eastern semi-circle truly violent well inland into New England. L.I. landfall pressure was on par with Sandy in NJ. Other big hurricanes followed 1938 affecting the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast (1944, Hazel, Donna, Carol, Bob) but 1938 was in a class by itself. As far as population impacts and damage (wind and surge) I'd have to say Sandy comes in second.

I see you’re limbering up for winter already. Preemptive congrats on the Jack.

Full moon Saturday should make coastal flooding worse

It’s quite a cold wall of fall. I got a little sunburnt in Columbus on Saturday Now I’m going to work in a sweater

Very much down with a Super Bowl weekend KU

Yeah we’ve done pretty well today so far. More to come.

We eventually received a few tenths overnight yesterday but I had to laugh at this radar image:

Polo

Interested to see how it pans out. Usually when you have a storm that can last over multiple tide cycles is when we have our biggest issues on the South Shore. Looking at it for Scituate you have tides of 9.8 Friday PM 9.7 Saturday PM 9.8 Sunday PM 10.0 Monday PM If the winds are more out of the ENE then that is when historically the flooding has been more significant specifically in Scituate. Not to say that NE is a cake walk but the more northerly component there is it is more like a big bowl of jello sloshing around.

Marco

If only the atmosphere was that simple and long range forecasting was that easy.

The latest CFSv2 RONI peak prog unlike for recent days doesn’t have most of the blue lines underneath most of the red lines. When it did, that predicted well the subsequent reductions in the progged peak, which came all the way down to +2.8 from +3.5 in late July. The current configuration is much more balanced and even has the average blue a little warmer than the avg. red. Thus, I don’t expect more drops in the progged peak over the next few days and there’s even a small chance for a slight bounce upward:

my sons have to put them in a magnetic locking pouch now when they walk in the door.

Nothing but heavy rain here in Townshend off that, not even strong winds Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk