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Yes, too much talk about tail risk of nuclear and a chronic downplay of ECS >4C scenarios up until very very recently.

Euro looks pretty active

12z Icon on drugs

Presuming that you're talking about nuclear - the problem is that there has always been *too much* talk about the tail risk; i.e. blowing out of proportion.

Man, would've been a lot of damage reports if things were leafed out. Glad that isn't the case

Nam and HRRR shifted way north. Wonder if it’s an outlier or a trend. They tend to do this so I’m not gonna believe them until the globals start to show it. .

Interesting. Got a link for that? I didn't realize wind and solar prices had been going up like that. You hear about prices going down, though generally it doesn't include the transmission aspect; which is generally much higher because wind and solar are prevalent in areas where people that use the energy *aren't* as prevalent. As such I've maintained that we're about done picking the solar and wind "low hanging fruit"; this chart appears to show evidence of that.

I mean, you made the point for me here. If we had hedged off w/nuclear (on a scientific, rational basis) we'd be in a much better spot today. But fear won and so did the campaign to offload responsibility onto the individual (e.g. "carbon footprint", "carbon offset" nonsense) and away from capital interests. Label the individual as the "junkie" (Purdue Pharma style, just nicer words) while perpetrating fraud. Sell the fix as cheap and easy and ultimately again, as up to the individual. Ignore the obvious ideological holes. And by god, never ever talk honestly about the tail risk. It was and continues to be a systemic, collective action and thermodynamic problem.

There's professional discussion now of severe weather, making it the whole way up into New England. It also looks to me like a little backside snow could possibly make it into the discussion as we move forward although I haven't heard it mentioned anywhere.

The physics I was referring to is simply energy density. Fossil simply has much, much higher energy density than solar, wind, or hydro. (though a lot less than uranium) As an example of that - the county that I live in has two interestingly-comparable new power plants: 1. A natural gas plant that produces 780 MW of power, on 100 acres of land 2. A solar farm (being built) that will produce 100 MW of power (when the sun peaks), on 800 acres of land When accounting for base load levels - the solar farm will produce roughly 1/250th the amount as the natural gas plant, on a per-acre basis. That's what I mean. (Obviously there's more to it than just acreage-used; that's one example facet) With regards to India - I don't see any "fast track" in that chart you posted. It looks like they're behind to me. They are, however, rapidly catching up in regards to how much CO2 they are emitting, at least compared with the US:

Upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning. Surprised they pulled the trigger this early. Figured it would happen with the afternoon update. The first concern is heavy snow, with a broad area of 10 to 16 inches likely, and a narrow swath of 15 to 20 inches Totals across portions of western and central Wisconsin could approach 2 feet. The heaviest snow will fall Saturday evening and overnight, with rates of 2 inches per hour possible. Winds will start out of the northeast at 20 to 30 mph.

RE will continue to get more expensive on a PPA basis so long as we continue to ignore the issues plaguing transmission, distribution and direct competition between industrial scale AI/DC buildout and the insane lack of investment in upstream base materials supply (like spinning up mining and refining). I maintain that negative prices on the spot market are a sign of market failure, not something that should be cheered. These prices certainly are not going to get better this year: The correct take is that *all energy* will continue to get more expensive in the world we've built for ourselves now. (Disclosure that I am long ICLN -- because yes, most of these companies will try and expand their margins off the backs of the ratepayer and externalizing the grid cost -- my PNL tells me if I'm right or not, so far, so good.)

Or maybe not!

Two main factors allowed me to retain some snow 1 I have done a bit better than most of SNE in these garbage events, which is usually where I "shine" relative to the region...you guys will rain, and I'll get Dendrite and Jeff's sloppy second-crumbs. I had 1.5" of pack-preserving sleet last Friday while it rained a few miles south. 2 My warm stretch yesterday was fleeting bc I didn't mix out until the front was approaching. Not to mention I radiate pretty well...

I’m gonna be the guy that says he misses the weather we had earlier this week. I’m super done with cold weather.

this storm covers alot of acreage

Great read! Thanks! Once in a lifetime event that was. Especially in terms of the large area affected. Not to mention max wind speeds, sfc pressure, snow totals and gulf storm surge. Rouge event not to be repeated anytime soon on that large a scale. Not to say regional storms across the MA/NE won't pack a punch at times just not to the scale of 93.

Yeah no way in hell I would want to live there.

CIPS has been more anemic than the CSU-MLP page. We'll see how both pages evolve over the next few days.

I think a consequence of this early convectively, active pattern will be a relax followed by a well timed vigorous return. I also haven't given up on winter. I still think the old man shows his face during one of the swings.

D4 setup could be legit if we aren't too socked in with low level clouds, etc.

Yep we had snow then

I'm starting to get heavy recession billowing out from beneath trees...but the lion's share of the flat expanse is covered.