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12Z GEFS: I count ~60% of the 30 members with a TC then from this at hour 204. With regard to the CONUS, there is a mix of more northern safe recurvers that are tending to be stronger (though possibly threatening Bermuda) and further south mainly then not as strong potential threats. This may be a good representation of the most likely scenarios as is often the case with ensembles:

you guys are old

So instead of 95 it's 92. Shut em down.

Pools to remain closed

Good thing about this region - we get 4 true sessions for everyone.

Showers, some heavy, (no thunder so far) are now moving in here in a WSW direction.

Yup. It’s coming . Perfect pattern and setup for hit this year . 1954

How much longer can this epic weather last? I haven't really noticed any signs of smoke down here in SoMD. 77F and clear down here.

At least right now the GFS, Euro, and second tier models are in agreement that this one develops within the next 6 days or so. With 96L out of the way and a cross-guidance signal for strong Atlantic ridging this does look like a candidate to at least get to the SW Atlantic. From there, who knows. There are almost always unmodeled troughs/weaknesses at this range that could easily kick it before getting close to the US.

August 1948 Newark Weather Day High (°F) Low (°F) Precip. (inches) Snow (inches) August 24 90 64 0.00 0.0 August 25 96 70 0.00 0.0 August 26 103 73 0.00 0.0 August 27 99 73 0.00 0.0 August 28 102 75 0.00 0.0 August 29 97 77 0.00 0.0 August 30 88 71 0.00 0.0 August 1948 New York City Weather Day High (°F) Low (°F) Precip. (inches) Snow (inches) August 24 84 69 0.00 0.0 August 25 95 72 0.00 0.0 August 26 103 78 0.00 0.0 August 27 101 79 0.00 0.0 August 28 100 78 0.00 0.0 August 29 95 78 0.00 0.0 August 30 87 73 0.00 0.0 August 1948 JFK Airport Weather Day High (°F) Low (°F) Precip. (inches) Snow (inches) August 25 94 71 0.00 0.0 August 26 100 76 0.00 0.0 August 27 101 76 0.00 0.0 August 28 98 77 0.00 0.0 August 29 96 78 0.00 0.0 August 30 90 72 0.00 0.0 August 31 83 63 0.00 0.0

Of course the one thing I root against will happen.

Isaias was a big hit, at least here. Joaquin is an all timer

SST’s are way above average in the North Pacific. Actually, they’re warmer at the end point of that forecast cone than they are where Henriette is right now!

Just came back from kayaking on the local lake. Still some haze for sure.

9th warmest July on record for the Ohio Valley region, driven largely by West Virginia, which saw its hottest month on record. The State of Ohio recorded its 11th hottest July on record. Overnight low temperatures were especially impressive, as Ohio was one of 12 states to set a new record high for minimum temperatures in the month of July.

Couldnt have said it better myself. i know we are not alone in that either.

Also hinting at a ridge over GL, but it would need to be a bit further south. With a -EPO and TPV in that position, there would be plenty of NS energy dropping southward. How far south and how it interacts with any potential southern stream waves might be interesting. Overall that depiction looks quite Nina-ish, but with the NE Pac ridge in a more favorable position/orientation for cold in the central and perhaps eastern US, especially NE.

79.3/63 The visibility is improved but there still seems to be some residual haze in the air and aloft.

"No injuries to wasps were committed in the making of this post"

Nice weather station, but most of all, I'm loving these deep blue skies !! No more air pollution !!

Just went out to refill the hummingbird feeder and the grape jelly and had a couple of yellow jackets and a bald faced hornet eating out of the jars. I waited until they were done and refilled. No injuries to humans or wasps to report.

If winds are SE take up the dews and lower the temps.. which is wanted quite honestly

Low frequency forcing/MJO 5-6-7 still in the same familiar area (around Maritime Continent) as we go further into this month. The Niña background state remains