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Due to curiosity about whether or not there likely is a connection between ACE and/or # of CONUS H hits with NE snowfall the following winter, I decided to research NE US AN winters and crunch the #s. I chose a central point with a very long history, NYC. I chose 35” as the breakpoint for AN: Hurr. seasons preceding NYC AN snow (35”+): 44 of last 156 seasons (top 28%): -AN ACE*, AN H hits (2+)**: 2020/17/05/04/03/1995/66/33/16/15/06/1898/96/93/87/80/78 -BN ACE/BN H hits (0 or 1): 2014/13/09/02/1993/77/22/19/1874 -NN ACE/AN H hits: 1960/59/48/47/38/1882/76 -NN ACE/BN H hits: 2000/57/1895/83/72 -AN ACE/BN H hits: 2010/1963/1892 -BN ACE/AN H hits: 1940/13/04 Summary of 44 H seasons preceding AN NYC snow: ACE/# of H hits: 1. AN/AN: 39% (17 seasons) preceding AN snow vs 26% of all H seasons being AN/AN 2. BN/BN: 20% (9) vs 28% 3. NN/AN 16% (7) vs 15% 4. NN/BN 11% (5) vs 13% 5. AN/BN 7% (3) vs 6% 6. BN/AN 7% (3) vs 11% ————— -AN ACE: 45% (20) vs 33% -NN ACE: 27% (12) vs 28% -BN ACE: 27% (12) vs 39% —————— -AN H hits: 61% (27) vs 52% -BN H hits: 39% (17) vs 48% ————— Conclusions -There appears to be a weak but noticeable correlation between ACE and the chance for >35” NYC snow -There appears to be a very weak but noticeable correlation between # of US H hits and the chance for >35” NYC snow -Combining these two factors, a season with both AN ACE and AN H hits, appears to give the strongest chance for >35” NYC snow with it possibly being as much as twice as high as the chance for >35” after BN ACE/BN H hits —————— *ACE norms adjusted for avg ACE of each era **Avg US H hits 1.8 1851-2024 Sources: -NYC snowfall: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=okx -ATL ACE: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy -# of CONUS H hits: https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/All_U.S._Hurricanes.html @PhiEaglesfan712@snowman19@donsutherland1@BlizzardWx

Plenty of rain in Marysville again today. .86 of rain from that Perry County special storm this afternoon. Got another mow in today & the weeds are never ending.

Man I do wish my block island vacation was a few weeks earlier, the surf should be awesome next week. Hurricane Lee brought some good waves a few years back but I imagine these will be more significant.

Really? It's just clouds

There will be nothing fun from this

Sounds like beer

Preliminary Scoring Estimates for August 2025 Scoring is based on latest posted anomalies in previous post. These scores are updated whenever the anomalies are updated. FORECASTER ___________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH_cent_c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___TOTALS hudsonvalley21 __________ 34 _ 48 _ 52 __ 134 __ 84 _ 26 _ 80 __ 190 _ 324 __ 86 _ 44 _ 90 __ 220 ____ 544 wxallannj ________________ 34 _ 52 _ 50 __ 136 __ 96 _ 46 _ 70 __ 212 _ 348 __ 84 _ 76 _ 80 __ 240 ____ 588 RJay _____________________40 _ 56 _ 56 __ 152 __ 96 _ 50 _ 90 __ 236 _ 388 __100 _60 _ 90 __ 250 ____ 638 Roger Smith _____________ 40 _ 60 _ 54 __ 154__100 _ 20 _ 54 __ 174 _ 328 __ 74 _ 76 _ 66 __ 216 ____ 544 Yoda _____________________42 _ 68 _ 72 __ 182 __ 74 _ 52 _ 84 __ 210 _ 392 __ 82 _ 52 _ 94 __ 228 ____ 620 wxdude64 _______________46 _ 58 _ 54 __ 158 __ 82 _ 58 _ 98 __ 238 _ 396 __ 78 _ 62 _ 92 __ 232 ____ 628 ____ Consensus _________48 _ 68 _ 70 __ 186 __ 78 _ 52 _ 88 __ 218 _ 404 __ 88 _ 58 _ 96 __ 242 ____ 646 Scotty Lightning _________ 50 _ 70 _ 80 __ 200 __80 _ 40 _ 70 __ 190 _ 390 __ 70 _ 50 _ 80 __ 200 ____ 590 so_whats_happening ____ 50 _ 74 _ 70 __ 194 __ 78 _ 58 _100 __ 236 _ 430 __ 90 _ 56 _ 98 __ 244 ____ 674 Tom ______________________58 _ 80 _ 82 __ 220 __ 64 _ 52 _ 88 __ 204 _ 424 __ 84 _ 46 _ 98 __ 228 ____ 652 DonSutherland1 __________64 _ 80 _ 78 __ 222 __ 68 _ 66 _ 94 __ 228 _ 450 __ 92 _ 62 _ 86 __ 240 ____ 690 StormchaserChuck1 _____ 66 _ 82 _ 74 __ 222 __ 68 _ 68 _ 94 __ 230 _ 452 __100 _66 _ 84 __ 250 ____ 702 ____ Normal ______________70 _ 90 _ 90 __ 250 __ 60 _ 70 _ 90 __ 220 _ 470 __ 60 _ 20 _ 70 __ 150 ____ 620 RodneyS _________________98 _ 84 _ 98 __ 280 __ 78 _100 _92 __ 270 _ 550 __ 96 _ 50 _ 92 __ 238 ____ 788 =============== ____ Persistence __________ 42 _ 50 _ 52 __ 144 __ 98 _ 02 _ 86 __ 186 _ 330 __ 60 _ 48 _ 86 __ 194 ____ 524 ______________ EXTREME FORECAST REPORT DCA, NYC, BOS, ATL __ All currently would be wins for RodneyS with lowest forecasts, Normal also wins for NYC, ORD would be a loss for wxallannj (+2.2) and a win for Roger Smith (+2.0) but at +2.1 it's a tie, and at +1.9 or lower, not an extreme forecast. PHX would be a win for tied highest forecasts of wxallannj and Roger Smith (+2.8). IAH, DEN and SEA would not be extreme forecast qualifiers. ======================================== (actual forecasts) FORECASTER ____________ DCA _NYC _BOS ___ ORD _ATL _IAH ____ DEN _PHX _SEA hudsonvalley21 __________ +1.8 _ +2.1 _ +1.9 ___+1.3 _ +2.2 _ +1.5 ___+1.3 _ +1.2 _ +1.0 wxallannj ________________ +1.8 _ +1.9 _ +2.0 __ +2.2 _ +1.2 _ +2.0 __ +2.8 _+2.8 _ +0.5 RJay ____________________ +1.5 _ +1.7 _ +1.7 ___ +1.8 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +2.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 Roger Smith _____________ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.8 __ +2.0 _ +2.5 _ +2.8 __ +3.3 _ +2.8 _+3.2 Yoda _____________________+1.4 __+1.1 __+0.9 __ +0.7 _+0.9 _+1.3 ___ +1.1 _ +1.6 _ +1.8 wxdude64 _______________+1.2 _ +1.6 _ +1.8 ___+1.1 __+0.6 _ +0.4 __ +0.9 _ +2.1 _ +1.9 ____ Consensus _________ +1.1 __+1.1 _ +1.0 __ +0.9 _+0.9 _ +1.1 ___ +1.4 _ +1.9 _ +1.7 Scotty Lightning _________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 __ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +2.0 __ +0.5 _ +1.5 _ +0.5 so_whats_happening ____ +1.0 _ +0.8 _ +1.0 __ +0.9 _ +0.6 _+0.5 __ +1.5 _ +1.8 _ +1.6 Tom ______________________+0.6 _+0.5 _ +0.4 __ +0.2 _ +0.9 _+1.1 ___ +1.2 _ +1.3 _+1.4 DonSutherland1 __________+0.3 _ +0.5 _ +0.6 __ +0.4 _+0.2 _+0.2 __ +1.6 _+2.1 _ +2.2 StormchaserChuck1 _____ +0.2 _ +0.4 _ +0.8 __ +0.4 _+0.1 _ +0.2 __ +2.0 _+2.3 _+2.3 ____ Normal _______________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 RodneyS _________________ -1.4 _ +0.3 _ -0.6 __ +0.9 _ -1.5 _ +0.1 ___ +1.8 _ +1.5 _ +1.1 =============== ____ Persistence __________ +1.4 _+2.0 _+1.9 __ +2.1 _ +3.4 _ +1.2 ____ 0.0 _ +1.4 _ +0.8 ______________

Two clear trends in the guidance: 1) the timing of the storm chances for most is moving up from overnight Sunday to Sunday late afternoon / early evening 2) with northeast flow and clouds, Monday may not get to 80 degrees for most. Could even end up well below 80.

SERCC's Climate Perspectives suggests Chicago would move into a tie for hottest season (through August 20) with the current forecast. Unfortunately, the last 7-10 days of the month looks cooler on the whole.

Of note looks like all the hurricane models took a big shift west as well

The Orioles went an impressive 0/14 with RISP tonight. I am genuinely impressed with that kind of futility. In other news, Ravens looked pretty good with the back ups tonight. Ran 79 plays to Dallas 49. Pretty much dominated for 98% of that contest. Come on September!

11:00 PM AST Sat Aug 16 Location: 20.3°N 65.1°W Moving: WNW at 14 mph Min pressure: 937 mb Max sustained: 140 mph

Nhc track is to far east now

Noticed a lot of leaves down this evening as we went for a drive. Sad stuff.

Kaboom. No power for 4 hrs.Needed the rain though.

The gauge in my yard was .80” so believable.

Persistent onshore S/SE wind

Hit 94 here today, with max dewpoint of 81. Luckily will get a decent break from high humidity next week.

Highs: PHL: 90 TTN: 89 TEB: 87 New Brnswck: 87 EWR: 84 LGA: 84 NYC: 84 ACY: 83 ISP: 82 BLM: 82 JFK: 81

'Heat' lightning pretty frequent in the northern sky here.

Followup to the above 12Z UKMET post regarding the new MDR AOI: I just looked at the last 4 UKMET runs and discovered that the reason the latest run recurves this AOI into Erin is because Erin is further SW due to a further W recurve and thus doesn’t exit until a couple of days later than yesterday’s runs:UKMET progs for 0Z 8/22:1) 0Z 8/15 run at 168 hrs:Erin 954 mb at 38N, 59W after recurve at 70WAOI 1011 mb at 20N, 61W, is 1,250 miles to the S2) 12Z 8/15 run at 156 hrs:Erin 949 mb at 42N, 57W after recurve at 70WAOI 1006 mb at 18N, 62W, is 1,700 miles to the SSW3) 0Z 8/16 run at 144 hrs:Erin 962 mb at 37N, 66W after recurve at 73WAOI 1007 mb at 16N, 59W, is 1,500 miles to the SSE4) 12Z 8/16 run at 132 hrs:Erin 958 mb at 35N, 71W after recurve at 74WAOI 1006 mb at 20N, 57W, is 1,350 miles to the SEmoving NW to the S of retreating H5 ridgeConclusion: It isn’t just about how fast the AOI moves W and develops, but also and possibly more crucially it is about how far W Erin recurves. The further W Erin recurves, the longer it will take for her to exit. The later the exit, the better chance the AOI would have to recurve before reaching the Conus.

I think given today's events, it's prudent to continue to keep an eye on this. It's still too early for either camp to declare victory, imo Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro XL using Tapatalk

Yes, but most places in the mid-Atlantic/northeast should have followed a similar pattern (especially with temperature).

Watched two outflow boundaries collide just to my south on radar. Nice line of storms developed with, as @Jackstraw described, constant lightning.

Twitter is a cesspool of bots but this is amazing eyewall of Erin footage https://x.com/wxnb_/status/1956827623062962483?s=46&t=8XFCjgbF1qQWLVKslle9tw