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This one would at least probably act like an E Nino. 23-24 really did not, at least not in the SE US and MA

IMG_20260405_152204.heic

Long season, but the Orioles completely suck right now.

I managed 0.70" today on the western edge of Ballenger Creek.

If this materializes it won't end well for any of us....

How much do the Nina years prior to 23-24 matter though? Wouldn’t that very strong Nino essentially “reset” that?

Finished with .60" of welcomed rainfall. I hope everyone is enjoying your Easter Sunday.

.37 is my total. A bit disappointing but I’ll take whatever we can get.

Give me the precip and I will roll the dice

If you looked hard enough I bet you could actually see the grass growing today.

5 of the last 6 years have been Nina. The average RONI for last 6 years is -0.73c/yr

I remember that event well. Was a heavy wet snow

Think this was a precip overperformer. Might have had >0.5”. Sun is now starting to break out a little. Still not looking forward to Tuesday’s temps…meh lol…though looks like a trend upwards thereafter.

Woof. Getting swept by the pirates!?!

The tomb is empty, He is Risen!

I believe it was 1997. I remember Easter Sunday, March 30, being warm. Then, it snowed on Monday (3/31) and Tuesday (4/1). 1997-03-30 68 54 61.0 12.8 4 0 T 0.0 0 1997-03-31 58 31 44.5 -4.1 20 0 0.66 2.3 0 1997-04-01 52 33 42.5 -6.5 22 0 0.06 1.6 3

Framber Valdez so far 0.75 Era through 2 starts.

Chris Bassett - Charlie Morton vibes

To get the strongest Nino in 140 years, the ONI would probably need to get up to ~3.0 to allow RONI to exceed the 2.5 RONI peak of 1982-3 and thus become the strongest since 1887-8. Keep in mind the Euro longterm warm bias that could possibly be causing its April prog to be too warm.

@Voyager might have been on to something with his post the other day. I'm hearing whispers of a strong El Nino. If that were to verify ( location dependent) it could be the back door until next spring If you get what i'm saying. In all seriousness though, come later this spring and summer the bdf will be welcome and offer something for everyone.

Honestly, I'd be fine with 50 in the winter and 85 in the summer.

I hope they can pull it together. This season may spiral out of control fairly quickly. That's what happened last year Season was basically over by Memorial day.

So glad youre back! Please continue to post so we get the whole experience starting in Fall.

The entire climate sensitivity range is the scientific consensus. By excluding most of the likely range, Spencer severely underestimates climate risk. There is low and diminishing technical support for low climate sensitivity. Spencer's views are inconsistent with the temperature rise we have already experienced. Other arguments against low sensitivity include: large and increasing earth energy imbalance and the growing consensus on positive cloud feedback. The scientific consensus is that the long list of CO2/warming debits far outweigh a couple of benefits.

gotta pass the spring barrier. this is like a 10 day EPS forecast but for ENSO at this point in the year