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Spc's new severe wind and tornado probability outlook.

The 03Z RAP gives 2-4 inches from the western Plateau to the Mountains. Valley areas included, even down into NE Alabama and NW Georgia.

New update from the Spc . A zone of moderate risk has been added. Its definitely not looking good fellas, and I don't know that things will de escalate, at least on paper so let's hope for a thermodynamic failure at the surface because the crazy, anomalous kinematics seem pretty eminent. Full discussion is in the link below the map. ...Carolinas into MD/PA and vicinity... Areas of showers may occur early in the day especially but should rapidly lift north, allowing areas of heating and gradual destabilization over the entire area. As the surface trough deepens, low-level wind will back and strengthen throughout the day. Supercells producing tornadoes appear most likely ahead of the cold front from SC into NC and southern VA. Models vary with degree of instability, but strong tornadoes do appear possible with effective SRH of at least 300-400 m2/s2. Fast storm motions over 50 kt suggest a long tracked tornado will be possible https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

That NAM run.

Getting a lot of 2/24/2016 vibes from both the outlook and the model progs/soundings for Monday, which of course was a widespread severe outbreak for the region, including some strong tornadoes (e.g. Appomattox VA EF3).

They can go 15 cig 1 without moderate so I assume that was a pretty easy decision. Also if they were go moderate for wind anyways it doesn’t really matter going 10 or 15% for tornadoes.

I was expecting like a 10, but I wasn’t sure how they would incorporate the qlcs part of the tor risk into the percentages

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AND INTO VIRGINIA AND MARYLAND... ...SUMMARY... Widespread severe storms are forecast on Monday for parts of the Mid-Atlantic States and Southeast. Tornadoes, potentially strong, and particularly damaging winds are most likely from South Carolina into Maryland during the afternoon. Significant severe storm potential overall will extend from eastern Georgia/Florida Panhandle into Pennsylvania. ...Synopsis... A large and deepening upper trough will pivot northeastward out of the OH/TN Valleys, across the Appalachians and into the Mid Atlantic on Monday, while a surface low deepens into southern Quebec. A sharp pre-frontal trough will extend southward across NY, PA, and into the Carolinas/GA by late afternoon, with a corridor of significant pressure falls timed with the diurnal heating maximum. A cold front will push rapidly east across GA and the FL Panhandle during the day with a bit slower progress across the Piedmont and into PA. Gusty south winds ahead of the cold front will maintain 60s F dewpoints across the entire region, and as far north as southern PA, just after warm front passage by late afternoon. Just above the surface, southerly 850 mb winds will increase from 50 to 75 kt, resulting in extreme shear profiles over a large area. Large-scale ascent and shear will increase coincident with the peak heating hours, resulting in a potentially widespread severe weather event during the afternoon. ...From Georgia and the Florida Panhandle... Early day storms may be ongoing from the southern Appalachians toward the FL Panhandle Monday morning, and the environment will already be favorable for supercells including tornado potential. Forecast soundings indicate substantial instability with mid to perhaps upper 60s F along with ample shear. These storms may also produce hail, as midlevel lapse rates approach 7 C/km. ...Carolinas into MD/PA and vicinity... Areas of showers may occur early in the day especially but should rapidly lift north, allowing areas of heating and gradual destabilization over the entire area. As the surface trough deepens, low-level wind will back and strengthen throughout the day. Supercells producing tornadoes appear most likely ahead of the cold front from SC into NC and southern VA. Models vary with degree of instability, but strong tornadoes do appear possible with effective SRH of at least 300-400 m2/s2. Fast storm motions over 50 kt suggest a long tracked tornado will be possible. Meanwhile, a robust line of storms will develop as the cold front pushes east, stretching from the Carolinas to southern NY. With a moist air mass and large-scale support, this line is expected to produce particularly damaging winds, along with QLCS tornadoes across the remainder of SC/NC, VA, MD, and much of southern PA. This will likely peak during the late afternoon hours. The activity may eventually interact with cool trajectories off the Atlantic during the evening. ..Jewell.. 03/15/2026

The high end scenario is still very real. The fail scenario is still very real.

Oh

Day 2 MDT!!!

Was just thinking same thing. Heart of metro may miss out on heaviest totals

no one will be spared the whirlwind

The heavy band is very clearly setting up south of MSP.

Oh please. Spare me another EF-0 or EF-1 little whirlwind.

00z Euro - ratio will probably be lower due to wind

1.3 for Naperville still looks good.

If El Niño is strong, which I do think it will be, it should, in theory, give the Atlantic a break this year. That doesn't mean we still won't see a few hurricanes or perhaps even a few landfalls. The old saying, it only takes one, see Andrew in '92, a strong Niño year, etc.; however, I would expect overall activity to be below normal for seasonal numbers. Too much shear and unfavorability across the basin should curb CV long-trackers. Obviously, if ENSO doesn't swing too positive or the Niño is weaker, then anything is on the table. As of now, based on current trends, I do expect below normal overall activity in 2026 for the Atlantic basin.

Thanks for continuing to keep this on the radar. Truly astonishing to consider the extent to which warm and snowless records have been smashed lately in much of the West, with more to come in light of the upcoming heatwave. Huge margins. This is clearly the most notable weather statistic for the 2025-26 winter season. Even if you only care about your own backyard, the capacity of the now existing state of he Earth to exceed previous records ought to alarm you, as it is only a matter before it happens where you are too. Unbelievably (based on recorded history) warm and generally now bereft of snow out here in Colorado.

Yeah I was looking at Iron Mountain. They are gonna get whacked. Historic blizzard

2.5” of snow here so far in Blaine. Solid 0.5” per hour rate since 6:00 pm. Heaviest band has set up just north of the dry slot on the south side of the metro. We’ll see if that band makes it up to me much the rest of the night. .

The 00z NAM is legit

I do think cams particularly hrrr are underdone with snow. 1-2in I think is a good bet here. Hrrr barely had half inch.

Tucked neighbors in the valley in the pines sandy soil