All Activity

The STJ is very likely to be muted this coming winter. -PMM/-ENSO weakens the STJ

Getting a little uncomfortable out there. Dew points have crept up to the mid '40s

he's never going to relive childhood snow memories with his son. sad!

There seems to be a degree of reliance on persistence for much of the CONUS for winter into spring. The consistency is well above what typically occurs, so one can expect changes in future outlooks.

Beer? count the legs again

Models have done terrible with monsoon moisture this summer, so I have no faith that any significant rain comes next week

i hope we get a lot of cold shots this fall to get people's hopes up and then winter is a snowless torch

Models show this cool and dry pattern locked in for weeks. We could be done with 90s for the rest of the year as long as that high pressure continues to dominate our weather pattern.

We’ll probably see some degree of 500mb height rebound by the 2nd week of September since it’s so tough to sustain a trough in the East this time of year beyond a few weeks.

I've done my fair share of whining and bitching in here during the winter months and people don't like whiners. Not everyone contributes the same style of posts, some bring more to the board meteorologically. Unfortunately there's some that can't just scroll past a boring, whiny, useless post during slow times. Some post 3 word posts daily and don't get called out due to them being part of the cool kid crowd. This forum is really just high school all over again. chistorm/alek are the bullies, schaum is a wannabe bully, rest of chic are the cool kids. Most mich posters are the nerds, some mich posters are cool but chicago posters think they're cooler and stebo is our principal that comes to work once a week. During the slow times, people get bored and like to start shit. Then posters from certain states come to a person's defense, then it somehow becomes the same ol michigan posters vs chicago/wi posters. Unfortunately it doesn't help Michigan's side that spartman is on our team.

On the night of August 22–23, 2025, the sky will offer a double treat for stargazers—a Black Moon offering clear skies and the final chance to catch the Perseid meteor shower this year. The Perseid Meteor Shower’s Last Act The famous Perseids, which peaked around mid-August, will still be active until August 24. By the night of August 22–23, the rates will have dropped significantly from their peak, but under the moonless sky, even faint meteors will be visible. It’s your last opportunity this year to witness these swift “shooting stars” streaking from the constellation Perseus before they fade away. The Black Moon At 2:06 a.m. EDT on August 23, the Moon enters its new moon phase. Because this is the third new moon in a single season, astronomers call it a “seasonal Black Moon,” an event that occurs roughly once every 33 months. Unlike full moons or eclipses, you won’t see the Black Moon itself. But that’s precisely what makes the night special: with no moonlight, the skies will be exceptionally dark, perfect for deep-sky observing. The real highlight of this night is the Milky Way. With the sky at its darkest thanks to the Black Moon, the luminous band of our galaxy will appear at its most striking. July and August are the prime months to see the Milky Way. From late June through August, Earth’s night-side faces directly toward the galactic core in the constellation Sagittarius. This is the densest, brightest part of our galaxy, packed with star clusters, glowing nebulae, and dark dust lanes. Around midnight, the Milky Way arches high across the sky, making July and August the best time of year to truly experience its full grandeur. Viewers in the Northern Hemisphere will have the best view of these events.. Away from city lights, you’ll be able to trace its star clouds, dark dust lanes, and glowing nebulae stretching across the sky—an awe-inspiring reminder of our place in the cosmos.

+PNA seems to be the most important pattern for big snow in the tristate at least. -EPO got us effing nothing last winter. Also need the subtropical jet to not be suppressed to oblivion

2007 was a much greater regime shift when looking at the bigger picture. The NSIDC didn’t forecast an imminent technically ice free summer below 1 million sq km at that time. But there were a few individuals in the Arctic community who did. If the record Arctic dipole pattern of 2007-2012 had continued into the 2020s, then the 2012 record would have been surpassed by now. Perhaps even producing a season in the 1 to 2 million sq km range approaching technically ice free. But the dipole reversal since 2013 featuring much lower summer pressures over the CAB has prevented the 2012 record from being challenged. 2020 came the closest but the relaxation of the dipole in August and lack of record Arctic cyclone preventing it from surpassing 2012. The last decade has featured a summer record mid-latitude ridging pattern across the Northern Hemisphere leading to the record heatwaves not on land and sea. It has featured lower pressures near the pole preventing a new record low. It’s interesting that a study released back in 2014 showed this new pattern developing before it emerged. They speculated at the time that it could lead to a remnant of summer Arctic sea ice remaining pretty far into the future if lower pressures continued over the Arctic during the summers going forward.

i would say that considering that -EPO and some +PNA is favored. definitely doesn't look like a disaster

So 25-26 is dead in the water. Nice. Crazy the snow dropoff that has occured since 19-20. Really only one good winter since then, or really only one good month (Feb 2021).

What the heck is this thing? It’s on my wall. I hope that isn’t a tick. It’s not a spider, not enough legs.

Boris clients have signed extensions over the years. Yes he does like to take his ciients to Free agency but Boris works for the player. Not the other way around. Blaming the agent takes the blame away from the failure that Elias has been for the last 2 years. I'm pretty sure you work in the PR department at the warehouse.

Chamber of Commerce Day

Plenty of articles about that. But, maybe it is just a holding pattern for now, and then there will be another dip lower (or higher haha).

I ran this scenario through AI and it confirmed that warming hole theory is not considering latent heat effects (increased water vapor), only sensible heat (dry bulb). Total heat (enthalpy) has likely continued to increase. In fact, if you consider latent heat effects, then places in the southwest with extreme sensible heat increases may actually have less total heat increase (since latent heat has decreased in those areas, evidenced by declining dewpoints).

Rainer when?

I'm just reading the chart here from what Bluewave posted in the seas ice thread. I'm not sure it matters much in terms of enso compared to the past 15 years especially.

Those are some solid rollers!