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Loving this weather...keep those 90s away

that'd be me

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0877 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1247 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026 Areas affected...Southeastern New York through Western New England Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 281646Z - 282245Z SUMMARY...Numerous thunderstorms have developed across portions of New York into New England. Flash flooding is likely as the storms interact with the terrain. DISCUSSION...Numerous thunderstorms have formed in several clusters from central New York through portions of western New England this afternoon. These clusters have a history of producing multiple-inch-per-hour rainfall rates. Duration has also been a distinguishing factor as some portions of central New York have seen heavy rainfall for several hours. The clusters of storms have developed ahead of a strong upper level negatively tilted trough, on the leading edge of a potent low level jet advecting high PWATs to 1.5 to 1.75 inches right into eastern New York and western New England. With plentiful terrain in these areas, the combination of upslope into the south-facing slopes of the mountains, heavy rain that's likely to persist for multiple hours, and plentiful moisture allowing storms to train and backbuild will all combine to make flash flooding likely in this region through the afternoon. While the heaviest rain has been in Central New York thus far, streamers of storms will fill in most areas in eastern New York over to western New England through the afternoon as peak heating and instability advection both increase the coverage, severity, and duration of the strongest storms. Urban and small stream flooding are most likely, especially off the south-facing slopes of the mountains and in the urban areas subject to the longer durations of heavy rainfall. Locally significant flash flooding can't be ruled out. High resolution CAMs guidance suggests the most persistent rains will be in the western areas from Binghamton up I-88, and for eastern areas from western Connecticut into southern Vermont from I-91 west. There remains some uncertainty for the Catskills through the Hudson Valley, where southerly flow may limit the convective coverage since terrain won't necessarily help concentrate the heaviest rainfall, and storms to the south may limit how much instability can advect into that area. Wegman

New SPC update brings 2 percent tornado into east tn and 5% tornado north eastern tn some adjustments to wind 5-15% and 5% hail .

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 525 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1250 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2026 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 525 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS PAC001-011-017-025-029-037-041-043-045-055-057-061-067-071-075- 077-087-089-091-093-095-097-099-101-107-109-119-133-290000- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0525.260728T1650Z-260729T0000Z/ PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BERKS BUCKS CARBON CHESTER COLUMBIA CUMBERLAND DAUPHIN DELAWARE FRANKLIN FULTON HUNTINGDON JUNIATA LANCASTER LEBANON LEHIGH MIFFLIN MONROE MONTGOMERY MONTOUR NORTHAMPTON NORTHUMBERLAND PERRY PHILADELPHIA SCHUYLKILL SNYDER UNION YORK $$

It just got hot and humid out of nowhere. Sun is out

Fresh off the press! Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

I like that implies we will get upstream storms, so at the very least we should get a nice rainy/thundery evening from whatever remnants can make it our way. Sort of similar to our last setup and getting the MCS from WV.

Someone to my NW getting a nice storm . Solid thunder up that way

Doesnt he own a succesfull business??

August could be a good night sky month is the clouds cooperate. Jax got the Perseids above. Fond memories of summer come to mind. Too bad the kids are in school by then now days. Peak is spread out a few days per the video, so maybe catch a dark rural sky on a weekend. Next we have a near total lunar eclipse the night of Aug. 27-28. The 96% lunar is gorgeous with an extended diamond ring phase where one side is lighter. Of course it's not as spectacular as a solar diamond ring, but at the same time I believe lunar eclipses are severely underrated. In contrast to solar, where I'm a Total or Nothing mentality, deep lunar eclipses are arguably as gorgeous as full lunar. Hopefully by then we've also had a couple early season fronts. Might not cool down much, but take the edge off the humidity. Occasionally NW flow on weekly progs would help the cloud issue for astronomy too. Afternoon t-storm cloud debris tends to clear sooner.

Yes, generating clicks....which is often the antithesis of sound meteorology. Same crap-maps every year...without fail. I know to ignore him, but the masses don't know any better.

July 23 had over 14” of rain here and every storm hit and would blow up overhead . Mother Nature always balances things out

Those areas more south will likely be hit later because of the surface low that forms. You can see on the 3km NAM and HRRR that when that low forms in S PA later the precip explodes in those areas.

Seems that way at the moment but also the heaviest isn't until this evening

He must be doing something right...

Just not our year for storms . I mean to literally not get one all summer I think this is 9 or 10 times had a miss . Three of them was under a severe warning lol

Sun is completely out here. Should be doing it's job with the atmosphere. It's sticky all of a sudden.

Got the dreaded split here in Toledo. .06 recorded at TOL. Was at least hoping to give my brown lawn a brief reprieve.

Everything is developing west of Philly and going too far north for that area. I'm thinking my area right on 78 is too far southwest for the heaviest.

Clouds

Precision steining for Tolland.

God, I can't stand him...biggest hack there is.

He was okay on a seasonal level, but I remember he initially rushed the flip back to cold in January. He kept to trying to go cold again first week and I knew it would take until mid month. At least he owned it.

Saving the most meh for last!