All Activity

And then the ground truth is a dusting

Agreed.

Monday morning low IMBY/Columbia 65° (compared to BWI 63°)

Thanks, Adam. It appears that Zeke’s using ONI based climo comparisons. If he were to instead use RONI, it would still be the warmest on record but not by as much as the 0.8C that he refers to. So, it would be an easy record breaker even by RONI standards.

I like seeing the GDM (Google Deep Mind) ensembles increasingly bullish on some type of development. I'm intrigued. 3/10 for now.

I would happily sacrifice and have a generally mild winter if we could just time one huge storm with a cold enough airmass. We are going on 11 years since the last legitimate snowstorm(around Baltimore at least.) I don’t know about anyone else, but despite the storm that ended up becoming a sleet bomb last winter, the first few hours it was the only time since January 2016 that it felt and looked like a real snowstorm. Been chasing that feeling for 10 years. Sucks that it couldn’t stay pure snow, but it reminded me of how that feels. I love the cold weather as much as anyone, but we need to take our chances with above average precipitation. I know “We’re due” isn’t scientific, but at some point 11 years into it…

Mostly misses down here. My 3 day total sits at 0.71", but it came in 4-5 different brief showers. Good for the grass, not so great for ponds and streams which are all VERY low. Looks like coverage will be better down here today and tomorrow.

I have no doubt that if we saw a repeat of 1938 in terms of track and intensity, people would take it seriously. Keep in mind, to get a major here you probably need it to be a high end 3 or more likely, Cat 4 off the NC coast (as 1938 was) and that alone would have people in a panic. It'd be the most hyped storm in history, with good reason. A bona fide major would be catastrophic depending on the track, even absent C3 sustained winds inland (which would be unlikely unless this is rocketing). Now that said, on this board? I already know how the run up would be. The first time the Euro kicks it at 144 with an over-zealous trough "she gone" would be the most popular phrase on the board. Followed by days and days of downplaying. Then complaining over the final track, which will shift 50 miles in the last 12 hours. Haven't seen a C5 yet, but I've seen a couple 4s, it's incredible. In Helene, I regret not doing a U-Turn on the highway to get a photo but I saw a massive pine snapped at the base well inland. In Laura, the damage was staggering. Fiona--it wasn't officially a hurricane when it hit Nova Scotia but I was one of the first on the ground after it passed and produced that 97kt gust in Arisaig. The damage was incredible all the way back to New Brunswick. But folks should know that even lower end tropical can and will do big time damage. The October Cape Cod crusher a few years ago (eventually Wanda) did C1 damage through the region and it was big time. I'm not as bearish as I was a few weeks ago. Subtropics aren't as bad thermodynamically as they could be. But the wind shear and dry air with more frequent troughs later in the season will be an issue. The window is narrow, but probably the place where we're most likely to see activity. Doubt anything meaningful comes out of the MDR this year.

May end up being one of the best light shows you can possibly ask for around these parts 6z NAM bufkit had >1000 J of CAPE in the -10C to -30C layer with > 3000 MUCAPE, that's nuts for this region

Yeah, the wording does sound kind of funny. Obviously, nobody can ever say what the hottest, coldest, etc. of all time/ever is in any location since that can’t possibly be known. But saying something is an “all-time record” in a location is, of course, totally different and is what the NWS is referring to. Now I’m going to get more technical: whereas one can’t possibly know the hottest or coldest ever in a location, they can know the hottest or coldest ever in a city (I’m saying “city” not “location”) if records have been kept since the city’s founding. Do you see the difference?

90/75 and as still as can be.

I'll be in the Ogunquit / Wells area... What are you thinking? Might be able to see great light show off to the north?

It's the element of surprise. Just like winter snowstorms you go to bed feeling confident that NWS has an advisory out for 1 to 3 in of snow tomorrow. But you wake up tomorrow morning and it's a winter storm warning for 10 to 14 inches.

These little passing showers are annoying

Was busy this weekend so wasn't able to send updates but the storm on Saturday was one of the worst I've seen in a long time. Was stranded on 295-S near Deptford, had to pull over. Hope everyone is safe. Best,

Uggh…This summer is almost as painful as most of last winter in regards to storms. Jesus…Even for a typical non severe summer it has been frustratingly quiet. Of course not the case W/S/N of us. Even saw some grow over the ocean east of us once. Ok. Rant over

Aroostook has seen a surprising number of tornados, considering it is far north and hilly. The densest area for wind damage (tornado and straight line) seems to be the Fish River chain of lakes, Eagle, Square, Long. In this century there have been damaging wind events - including tornados - from Oxbow to the town of Eagle Lake. Public Lands had loggers salvage 1,900 cords from 60 acres south of Eagle Lake in 2005 and 3,000 acres in 2013 from a 200+-acre blowdown north of the lake. The granddaddy event was older, 600 acres Eagle to Square Lakes flattened by straight line wind on 9/30/1986. The Bureau salvaged about 3,000 cords from 300 acres (not all were reached) and J.D. Irving salvaged at least as much on their half of the blowdown.

I guarantee the vast majority of people here have never bothered to read the entirety of their home insurance policy....they will be surprised when they read the part about paying a certain percentage of the damage ... How many home owners have flood insurance??

I'm not sure how he knows, maybe just speculation, but Glenn Burns (Atlanta area Met) is predicting an unstable PV this winter. So he compared it to a likely colder El Nino pattern vs some of the stinkers with strong PV set ups.

I think tomorrow is going to be very close with BDL tying their all time record low.

You didn't happen to teach Biology at Manchester Central HS in about 1990 or so did you? I had a teacher there that was super passionate about all of this and would occasionally use us students as a captive audience to vent to. Sounded just like this! I recall this one time when he was on a tear, face getting more and more red as he went on, none of us saying anything and then that apparently pissed him off too so he lays into us with "Are you fkn listening to me!!!?!?!?" We're all kind of like "Yeah, we really don't have a choice". There was this one skinhead kid in class though that piped up and said "Calm down dude! You're losing it!" Good times. People definitely get passionate about topics they hold dear. Fuck Central HS.

Also interesting that according to CTP's morning graphics that York and Lancaster counties are to have the LOWEST Heat Index values tomorrow in their forecast area. On Wednesday, York and Lancaster will be the highest.

We likely see a sizable jump come with next Monday’s update based on the ongoing warming in 1+2 and 3.4. I actually expected region 4 to come in around +0.4C as the SST charts were showing a cooling there. That is definitely one difference from previous recent Ninos where we saw region 4 way above average with consistent warming each week. Anyway, the models are already keying in on yet another WWB