All Activity

It needs to get going fast. Counting October we have finished BN precip 13 of last 14 months now. Just insane longevity to this drought. Streamflows around the area are all at or approaching record lows and lake levels are crashing. We absolutely have to reverse this over the winter or next summer is going to be rough.

In 23-24, we were getting rain from every STJ system. Just for a week or so, we got cold air and it snowed from two northern stream systems that trended south last minute. Ironically, the STJ had shut off for that week. Part of me thinks that in the not so distant future we’d be rooting for La Ninas since we can still get cold air in those winters. Just hope for a typically nina suppressed storm track to shift NW for major I-95 snows, since jet streams and storm tracks have been shifting north across the board. Those two misses last year? Get them both to hit, and we may have beaten 1995-96.

40’s for everyone?

The big ones always do...

Non-linear climate shifts don’t care about small sample sizes. Non-linear climate dynamics combined with small sample sizes create severe statistical and predictive challenges because the Earth's system can cross critical thresholds or experience abrupt state shifts that short or sparse historical records fail to capture. [1, 2, 3]

Usually feel like 50mb is a pretty good proxy for where the cold is. We don't have any on this side of the planet. Whatever that event is in the stratosphere. It's booting it all to the other side of the planet. Ultimately, it's dumping into the Pacific. Increase that gradient? Just going to turbocharge the Pacific jet by doing that... Thinking torched thoughts...

Most likely but I will take it! We may slip back into Extreme Drought soon.

Here's the RRFS ensemble, which we'll all have to use for general purposes, since the NAM and standard convection allowing models are ending! tornado chances upcoming today

They’re WAY more optimistic than what I predicted.

It's going to be a long cold winter that never ends.

In-Fa was very impressive at 130 kt, and slowed down, did a small loop, and is now quite sheared

That won’t stop the weenies from saying it’ll make its own cold air.

This change was actually set to occur in mid-October, but was pushed back due to the REFS/RRFS failing it's final test prior to that time. But yes, unless there is some very last minute shift, that change will occur tomorrow.

Rookie numbers.gif

La Nina base state seems to account for most (not all) of the warmth in the east

October 2026 finished tied as the 6th warmest October on record in Chicago. Warmest September 1. 64.3° - 1963 2. 62.2° - 1971 3. 62.1° - 1947 4. 61.9° - 1920 5. 61.4° - 1900 6. 60.8° - 2026 6. 60.8° - 1956 6. 60.8° - 1879 9. 59.8° - 1924 10. 59.7° - 2024 10. 59.7° - 2021 10. 59.7° - 1953

RONI is in line historically, but with the background Pacific state we’re still pushing the limits magnitude wise. I suppose we don’t know what was happening when Erik the Red was frolicking through southern Greenland.

October 2026 finished tied as the 6th warmest October on record in Chicago. Warmest September 1. 64.3° - 1963 2. 62.2° - 1971 3. 62.1° - 1947 4. 61.9° - 1920 5. 61.4° - 1900 6. 60.8° - 2026 6. 60.8° - 1956 6. 60.8° - 1879 9. 59.8° - 1924 10. 59.7° - 2024 10. 59.7° - 2021 10. 59.7° - 1953

Not sure if this was posted here but it’s from tnwx not saying I disagree with everything posted above I think they were also posted over a span of a day or two so could have also changed

Deep extended about as locked in as it gets

The last in a flurry of posts. There is some continuity(over particularly NA) between the EURO LR Ext and the 12z CFS 30d maps for mid Nov to mid Dec....western and central Europe are obviously different.