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Yeah, Good to get an early start even if its gone in a few days.

Local mets are saying same thing.

Oh if only it weren't a nina and a -PDO! These looks are useless...er, right?

Pictures indicate that one engine tore out its innards and fell off the wing before the actual crash.

I like that the trough is centered further west than the Lakes because it "should" open up the Gulf and Atlantic for overrunning while remaining cold enough for many for snow/frozen chances. If the trough was over the Lakes, it's cold/dry city outside that LES beneficiaries.

Great video from Phillip Prince on the destruction seen around where the eyewall came on shore. This focuses mostly on the geography/geology angle and how that affected things but I figured many in here would find it interesting.

Wxmodels DJF 500mb looks better than the free graphics from the Euro site.

56.3° and Mostly Cloudy. Can't really complain, but I wouldn't call it a torch or anything. Average high here is 57

That much colder Jan vs the prior run is likely imho due to the increased support by a decent portion of the 100 ensemble members for a major SSW in late Nov or early Dec when considering the typical timing of the lagged cold. If this early SSWE were to actually occur, I’d expect Jan to verify even colder than this. But if it doesn’t, it could very well verify warmer like the prior run you showed.

it's like a winter storm watch-when it's converted to an advisory some say the same thing-but a watch is no guarantee of a warning "high winds COULD impact the area" Means just that.

New Euro 2m by month shows a semi-front loaded winter though Jan is actually the coldest meaning it may be better described as a mid-loaded; this perhaps is largely related to the decent % of members having a major SSW in either late Nov or early Dec and the typical lagged E US cold well afterward for those members. That lagged cold would tend to be most concentrated in the first half of Jan. Thus, if that major SSW were to occur, I’d expect a colder Dec and especially Jan than what these are showing. If it doesn’t, I’d expect a warmer Dec and especially Jan vs this. **Climo is 1993-2016** Dec: similar to prior run Jan: much colder than prior run likely related to increased threat of early major SSW Feb: slightly warmer than prior run

Ah, so there was no downgrade.

Latest ECMWF Seasonal update detects a -PNA -EPO -NAO December.

Its a balmy 42.6°F up here in moose knuckle land.

Now the euro is showing a more respectable storm. Bullseye around lapeer with 6+. Giving me Nov 11 historic early snow vibes. Looks like a slow mover as it digs and deformation snows deliver the goods. It seems like yrs since ive tracked a legit snow threat.

No. Just a watch

Not sure why the gif is reversed, but I like the trend on the eps honing in on a deeper low, located right near the MI/OH/IN border, which would be pretty favorable for snow for us in michigan.

Was a High Wind Warning ever issued?

as usual I have no idea what you are talking about. 51 and cloudy here, sun has not been out all day aside from around 7am.

12Z wasn’t a good suite if you wanted token flakes east of the mountains. The energy just doesn’t dig enough to be a factor other than providing the enhancement needed for a nice NW flow event. Other than that, how about the Euro showing sea effect snowfall off the OBX in November? .

Records: Highs: EWR: 79 (2022) NYC: 78 (1961) LGA: 75 (2022) JFK: 75 (1975) Lows: EWR: 27 (1933) NYC: 23 (1879) LGA: 32 (1951) JFK: 32 (1965) Historical: 1894 - The famous Election Day snowstorm occurred in Connecticut. As much as a foot of wet snow fell, and the snow and high winds caused great damage to wires and trees. Winds gusted to 60 mph at Block Island RI. (David Ludlum) 1894: A significant snowstorm impacted New England on November 5th through 6th. It formed off the New Jersey coast on the 5th and passed east of Connecticut with rapidly increasing heavy rain, snow, and high winds. The heavy snow and high winds caused significant damage to trees and brought down telegraph poles by the hundreds. As a result, all southern New England's telegraph and telephone services were crippled, and fallen poles and trees delayed railroad trains. 1961 - Strong Santa Ana winds fanned the flames of the Bel Air and Brentwood fires in southern California destroying many homes. At 10 PM the Los Angeles Civic Center reported a temperature of 74 degrees along with a dew point of 5 degrees. On the 6th, Burbank reported a relative humidity of three percent. (The Weather Channel) 1977 - A slow moving storm produced five to nine inch rains across northern Georgia causing the Toccoa Dam to burst. As the earthen dam collapsed the waters rushed through the Toccoa Falls Bible College killing three persons in the dorms. Thirty-eight persons perished at a trailer park along the stream. (David Ludlum) 1987 - Low pressure off the California coast produced stormy weather in the southwestern U.S. Flash flooding stranded 8000 persons in the Death Valley National Park of southern California. Thunder- storms over southern Nevada produced dime size hail and wind gusts to 68 mph around Las Vegas. Unseasonably mild weather in the northeastern U.S. was replaced with snow and gale force winds. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - A powerful low pressure system produced high winds from the Great Plains to New England, and produced heavy snow in northern Wisconsin and Upper Michigan. Winds gusted to 64 mph at Knoxville TN, and reached 80 mph at Pleasant Valley VT. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1988: An F1 tornado touched down south of Altoona near Hollidaysburg. Several homes were damaged with roofs torn off and broken windows, numerous trees were toppled, and garages and other outbuildings were destroyed. 1989 - Temperatures warmed into the 80s across much of Texas. Highs of 86 degrees at Abilene, Fort Worth and San Angelo were records for the date. (The National Weather Summary) 2002 - Severe thunderstorms moved across southeastern Alabama and the Florida panhandle, producing wind damage and several tornadoes. A tornado struck the Alabama town of Abbeville killing 2 people and injuring 25 (Associated Press). 2017: A classic Tornado Debris Signature (TBS) was observed in Washington County, Indiana.

Without a doubt Snowmaggedon Most impressive March 1993 Superstorm

Strat warm talk... https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/early-stratospheric-warming-event-polar-vortex-forecast-winter-2025-2026-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

66 / 22 here. Winds will pick up soon.

WB latest EPS seasonal. Biggest, and significant cool down forecast compared to last month's run is January.