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Caught a glimpse of a cool looking crescent moon peaking thru the Great Lakes inspired clouds closely following sunset.

I remember it being a bunch of wimpy snow events up here. Pretty sure New Orleans had a bigger snowstorm than Frederick. It was a winter, but nothing memorable imo.

If you haven’t noticed, a massive storm heading to rapid intensifying is about to wallop Jamaica.

I'll take the add, but pass on the subtract.

As someone else who also hates the spread of misinfo, especially when it is done purposefully to overhype/get more attention and sell more of a product, I fully endorse his post about this error about the AMO. Spreading misinfo on the internet is a pet peeve of mine. We’re in the Age of Misinfo, sadly. It’s the least we can do to try to reduce the spread of it. Even unintentional errors should be corrected. Keep in mind that there are numerous less informed guests that read these threads. So, we’re not just targeting members in our attempt to make corrections.

Oh the Euro Control...if only it could control itself with snowfall forecasts.

NHC always plays it safe. I think this nukes and goes to 165-170. If they are at 150 now then that tells me the sky is the limit

It's forecasted to become a major cat 4 with 150 MPH winds.

I’m talking about wholesale local hemisphere

An AO-/NAO-/PNA+ blocking regime is in place. As a result, an extended period of cooler than normal weather will prevail through the end of the month. It will turn somewhat cooler this weekend. Temperatures will reach the lower and middle 50s. The unseasonably cool weather will continue into at least the middle of next week. There is a possibility that the closing days of October into the opening days of November could experience a significant multi-day rain event. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around October 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through mid-winter. The SOI was +24.43 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.566 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 53% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 57.8° (0.1° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

WB latest weeklies control first week of December....

Its like that with everything on every subject. Pick who you want to follow. If people want to follow accounts with wrong info, so be it. Eventually with being wrong, people will stop following. You seem to let it bother you. No need to lecture us here. Who here is posting useless garbage? I dont really read it here unless one of you guys bring it up for some reason. Not sure why these people are even brought up. You guys bring their crap into a perfectly fine thread here.

Actually at this time stage…no one! I mean I know we all laugh at my ideas on this…but it’s actually true. It’s a F’n eternity in modeling world…so ya, who will know?

Temp down to 43 degrees already.

Who will know ?

Let’s see what 0z says?

As some people seem to think it's not a big issue that they made incorrect claims, here's the AMO for the 2025 through September for all to see. 2025 1 0.98 2025 2 0.86 2025 3 0.75 2025 4 0.67 2025 5 0.73 2025 6 0.78 2025 7 0.87 2025 8 0.86 2025 9 0.76 What those who dismiss the dissemination of bad claims don't understand is that there is a big difference between forecasting (no one has a crystal ball) and making incorrect claims about objective verifiable data. Just because most of the social media readers might not ever seek to verify the claims and many may have no idea where the data resides, does not make such claims appropriate. If anything, because those pushing the false claims no that such claims won't be challenged, it makes such claims particularly unethical. Tragically, as anyone can play "meteorologist" on social media without any accountability, there's a lot of bad information being pushed into the public space. Yet, unless meteorologists speak out against such practices, the profession winds up being tarnished by the public perceptions created by misleading data, unfulfilled hype, etc.

GFS has been better than Euro and the hurricane models that took this well west of Jamaica. If anything they have started caving to GFS which was predicting the center reformation to the east that happened. That being said, none of this is good news for Jamaica they are squarely in the bullseye

We always get excited for great patterns in late November and early December and usually it leads to some days with highs in the mid 40s and a rainy storm or two. Much rather get cooking after December 15 or 20.

WB 18Z GEFS still has some members with big amounts through the end of next work week.

Back out of hibernation. Saw this on our Philly discord .

Got wood? Just so happens I'm running a GFS special this weekend.

Glad euro and AI are back onboard

Light shower only lasted about 10 minutes. 48.2°

Down on the southern eastern shore camping and enjoying the incredible dark sky. Can see Comet Lemmon and the Milky Way! Hope the frost stays back home lol.