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I was going to say this. 18z and 6z are generally pretty wonky, I'd put more stock into the 12z and 0z runs

Something's off here-it gives me 7" of snow at 10-1 ratio but 0.5" liquid. CT coast 0.4" but same snow. Again weird precip hole.

Seriously? 14 to 24 imby.

Wouldn't take much. Just as Randy said, the lobe pivoting around the PV under the nao needs to dive in and remain relevant.

Run

Can we all just relax and enjoy what we get. We are all going to see a 6”+ event in the tri state area with the exception of maybe far southern coastal Jersey. A few model runs and more and more people are ready to throw in the towel. I’m grateful to even be tracking this storm where last year we sat here with noting to look at

It was always one of my favorite things, I feel they could have done better though, making it more realistic. It just became about super sayians at a certain point and no real character or plot development. Loved the Namek and Frieza sagas. My facebook has been giving me clips of DragonBallSuper... it's actually pretty good, came out in 2015 I think

Defibrillator alert!!! CLEAR!!!

Internal model snow ratio map is even better than Kuchera. It’s very hefty with the front end thump. Wish it wasn’t at range, but something we’ll be monitoring is the QPF distribution on guidance to the lead up. If they stay juiced, that will be a major plus for snowfall and beating back the mixing line due to evaporative cooling in the layer between 850-700mb.

Lol...shows how often I read them

Nope, this has been pretty steady at my location as soon as the northern push commenced

Find the cold front!

Mushrooms enhance you though. Problem was I was too sensitive.. couldnt fall asleep, couldnt sleep. I actually retreated to the back of dark caves in AZ for some time to catch up on rest lol

Prob not gonna be as good as 12z just looking at H5, but stranger things have happened...nrn stream wave is much further north, but may have time to dive in

I just started getting back into DBZ again last year...came after Toriyama passed in 2024. I had never watched the series at length until maybe the Buu saga. I had passing knowledge of Cell and Frieza but had not really watched it all the way through. On the Cell saga now!

That’s the end of run or precip

The models at this point seem to be honing in on what's going to happen. Let's keep this in mind for next week's event. A different set up, but these southern storms are difficult to figure out more than a couple days out.

yeah somewhere between you and i looks to be "the line". Not sweatin it yet, but if 0z NAM's come in any warmer, it might be time to start rethinkin my thinkin. This event has been largely consistent on most models for a couple days, so I cant imagine big surprises exist, but for as we've been sayin for a couple days, a little means a lot for us in the transition zone.

GFS for the win!

This is becoming less exciting lol

They haven’t done 4PM updates in months. They update the afd around 12:45-1:45 PM and AM every day and that’s it. I assume it’s the budget cuts. I could be wrong. They very seldom, and I mean very seldom will update in the 9:45-11AM or PM range nowadays and one of those days was today. They also do their zone forecasts the same way. It’s kinda sad.

It is just a cold sore.

Yes. It's been a slow but noticeable bleed. And that will matter south and east of 81.

I've gotten pretty mellow over the years with these storms, but I gotta say that I now officially loathe the term "warm nose." On top off the snow-ruining implications, it just sounds gross. If I never heard the term again it wouldn't be soon enough.