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We need it suppressed to Venezuela. Is it in Venezuela? If not, I'm not getting my hopes up

Let's pray that doesn't verify if we are going to have any freezing rain. That could be a catastrophic outcome leading to extremely long-duration and widespread power outages.

My wife went to get supplies from grocery store and came back with more wine and beer than a village could drink. Love her

Are you posting from Reston, VA or a rest home in Virginia?

I'd sell half my family for the GFS outcome

Updated. The one I saw earlier was time stamped around 1.

One of the biggest flocks of winter just headed north over my house. Going to take that as a sign that I’m far enough south for some goods

Khaleesi’s handmaiden voice: “it is known. Yes.”

Had to do it…

Well said. A big weekend for the mesonet though. Its first widespread winter storm.

I mean I think the “it won’t mix” point died yesterday.

Here ya go

Wind gusts 1AM Monday on gfs close to 40mph in eastern pa . Evidence this could persist 6+ hours which again, puts us in definition of blizzard warning criteria. Blizzard Warning A Blizzard Warning means that the following conditions are occurring or expected within the next 12 to 18 hours. 1) Snow and/or blowing snow reducing visibility to 1/4 mile or less for 3 hours or longer AND 2) Sustained winds of 35 mph or greater or frequent gusts to 35 mph or greater. There is no temperature requirement that must be met to achieve blizzard conditions

15:1 may happen for a short time but I think 12:1 or 10:1 is more realistic

He does revise his forecasts an awful lot lol

I saw some people pick apart the 12z Euro and EPS and the “trend” might just be for the jackpost zone, not the bare minimum.

Yeah who knows, I mean realistically with these complicated wave interactions you can get shifts up until 48 and even beyond but it just feels like they don’t shift back south very much.

One thing for sure, the rest of this month is cold.

You'd have to dig back in the other thread for the quote, but I've been saying since Monday that I think 12z Friday (tomorrow morning) is when it will be "lock in" time. I'm not a "fan" of course of the stronger 850 low going into the OHV but I think that is the most likely outcome here. The coastal hand off is my biggest unknown, and I have no hard "science based" direction on that. My gut tells me that it will be a late and we're gonna get the mix. Still lots to work out, and it's likely going to be a struggle and we're gonna be nowcasting on Sunday.

watch out for drifting tonight.

I think it’s because an Ice Storm Warning is issued when freezing rain is the predominant type of forecasted precipitation. In this case, Nashville still falls within the Winter Storm Warning criteria, which is any of the following: Heavy Snow: Accumulations of 3 inches or more in 12 hours, or 4 inches or more in 24 hours. Sleet: Accumulations of 1/2 inch or greater are expected. Freezing Rain (Ice): Accumulations of 1/4 inch or greater (this may also trigger a specific Ice Storm Warning). Combination of Hazards: At least 2 inches of snow combined with any accumulation of sleet and/or ice (freezing rain).

C'mon people! This BS should be in the Banter thread. It adds nothing to the discussion and is merely doom posting and whine-casting. I'm not saying we should have all "rah-rah!" stuff in here for the most positive model depictions, but comments like this with no support or background do nothing...and I'll say that now even IF this ends up being the case. Should we be a bit alarmed by something like the NAM result earlier? Sure, a bit cautious. But we tend to be overly cautious in this region anyhow which is fine. But even that, which appears to be the worst possible scenario, doesn't mean we should "accept that it might be right" hands-down right now. (ETA: And even the NAM solution is somewhat better than what you're saying here.)

I do wonder with the cold in the lead up and bigger cold following it that could make things a little different this time?

For now, but look at the trend.

Don't worry we will take plenty of pictures for you