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Yeah it sucks but I think they’re trying to hammer home to the public not to expect 18” of snow like apple weather and similarly shallow apps have been espousing. I do have a feeling we can over-perform during the thump based on seasonal flavor and the bitter cold of this antecedent airmass. Combined with some favorable dynamics and the few recent runs mentioned by others that show a slightly delayed flip, perhaps we can achieve the higher end ranges after all prior to dreading heavier echoes.

Most of what falls before sunrise is probably virga.

Bro better check the mountain forum...

I'm not sure everything melts in that melt layer. 50mb is enough, but it looks like no more than 1⁰C. OTOH, I'm not sure how much is even falling into that layer. I'm thinking that's a mix, including some fairy crappy snowflakes from below 775mb.

21z rap snow between 2 - 5 am sunday

2/11/06, maybe?

cap cod sounds like an elegant fish dish.

Dew came up to "0"! 25F, sleet still coming down.

I'm at a balmy 20F/-2.5F. Overcast.

Prior to the warming of the mid-levels tomorrow afternoon, soundings showed a strongly saturated dendritic growth zone (DGZ) between –12°C and –17°C. That is almost ideal for producing large, fluffy dendritic flakes. There was also strong lift and high saturation supporting very efficient snow growth and high snow-liquid ratios, especially in areas with stronger banding. In short, for 3-4 hours there could be snowfall rates of 1" per hour and perhaps 2" per hour at times. That's when most of the snow will fall in and around New York City. The visibility could fall under one-quarter mile during the periods of heaviest snow. Thundersnow seems unlikely in most of the area as there isn't a convective signature in the soundings. It is these dynamics, not 10:1 snow-liquid ratio maps that tell the story of what continues to look to be a significant snowfall in and around New York City. On account of the system's dynamics ahead of the changeover to sleet and the storm's forecast QPF, I have little reason to deviate from my thinking based on today's 12z and early 18z guidance. Through early portion of the 18z cycle, it appeared that even as differences persisted among the guidance, the models were slowly moving toward a consensus with the exception of the 18z GFS. As 100% of individual EPS ensemble members from the 0z and 12z cycles had 6" or more snow, the 18z GFS's < 4" figure is not within the realistic range of possibilities. The strong dynamics noted earlier also suggest that the GFS's solution is unlikely. Overall, a reasonable low-case snowfall for New York City remains 5". A reasonable high case is 12". New York City and nearby areas remain in line for 6"-12" of snow and sleet. Areas to the south and east of New York City could see 4"-8" amounts (even farther south beyond the New York City area, places like Atlantic City should see 3"-6"). General 12"-18" amounts are likely well north and west of New York City, most likely in parts of northeastern Pennsylvania (Pike County, Lackawanna County), Orange County, Dutchess County, Sussex County into at least the northern half of Connecticut. For perspective, the last time New York City saw a 6" or greater snowfall was January 28-29, 2022 when 8.3" fell from a rapidly deepening blizzard that buried parts of Long Island into southern New England under two feet of snow. Its last 10" or above snowfall occurred during the long-duration January 31-February 3, 2021 snowstorm when 17.4" accumulated. Up in southern New England, Boston appears on track to see 14"-20" of snow. If so, that would be that city's biggest snowsorm since the January 28-29, 2022 blizzard, which dumped 23.8" of snow.

Always love this aspect of America for whatever myriad reasons it happens. Hits me right in the feels.

I can kind of see it there, but I have no idea what that is using for a base layer. I've just been trying to go by Wunderground obs to see if they are verifying in some way.

NOAA has me getting up to 32 degrees tomorrow for a high.

Couldn’t agree more. I think the heavier rates will help to overcome the borderline mid level warming. The charge to sleet probably only happens once a majority of the precip has already fallen, sometime after 02-03z.

Can't recall too many events where guidance kept increasing QPF right up to go time. 1.5'' of liquid through this airmass with big UVVs is going to be a lot of snow.

I hope I get at least 8 inches before any change over. And I mean a real 8 inches, not what I have my current wife thinking 8 inches is

Monday @12z has me at 21", and 27" at 06z Tuesday, so 6" inches.

Yeah, where long island or cap cod doesn't even exist.

18z GFS brings the goods again!

Interesting observation out of my window. Clouds rolling south down bluff mountain.

15 brrr

Enjoy your success. You’re the only one getting snow in this forum. Temper your glee, please. .

Ok that makes me feel a little better but just over a half inch is still not good

I’m unfortunately going to be doing some I Told You So

Quicker transfer at 18z? That's what we want.