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Pointing out identifiable shifts in the climate has nothing to do with doom. I use it to set the range of parameters for my forecasts. Warming temperatures and storm tracks over time mean less snow. The long term snowfall trend in NYC has been down as the winters have been warming. As the winters have been warming we reached a sweet spot for heavy snows between 1993-1994 and 2017-2018. The temperature snd storm tracks were just right along with the increased precipitation for heavy snows. But you will also notice during those years that we had very few average years which were common prior to the 1990s. It was an all or nothing snowfall pattern with great years over 30” and 40” with other years around 15” or under Past snow droughts were a function of drier winters which were cyclical. But warming is a long term trend due to increasing CO2 emissions. Plus we have experienced non-linear shifts which have abrupt and not gradual. So I have a few long range snowfall scenarios for NYC going forward. Scenario #1 is that the warmer storm track shift and less snow since 2019 is what we will have going forward with NYC shifting to under 20” of snowfall. A few seasons will reach average and above but most will be below the mid 20s. Scenario #2 is a bounce off the lows with more frequent snowy seasons but well below the 2010-2018 close to 40” average in NYC. This would be a short term pattern before the lower seasons begin dominating again. The lowest skill outlook would be a VEI-7 or 8 volcanic eruption which would induce a volcanic winter for 3-7 years with much colder and snowier conditions. Since these eruptions are no easily forecast and can have hundreds or thousands of years between events. So unless we get a historic volcanic event which isn’t easily to forecast, my guess is a a choice between scenario #1 and scenario #2.

Ugh, sorry to hear man.

You don't seem to understand that *the* key ingredient for China's growth - including the growth of their energy industry (both renewables and fossil) is an abundant supply of cheap labor. That is something we simply do not have. It's not an issue of attitude, priorities, or policy - it's an issue of resources.

Down to 24F here in the valley in E CT, oldest of the season! We have had decent cold, but not much to show for it here other than rain.

Just saw this. Devastating. So glad to hear about the good news for May!

That’s exciting!!! Time to tap your optimistic side-your baby needs it!

What's with the ice? Had to yank the crap out of the car door to get it open.

Speaking of Palms. Bridgeport has the most northern east coast palm tree with this sabal palmetto that's been growing since 2009..

Not a major wind event, it still will have it's impacts- probably as the third wind event in the past three weeks. While many model gust tools do not forecast wind gusts above 45 MPH Sunday afternoon, the ECMWF gust tool does (seen on Pivotal) as do the soundings of the 00z/15 ECMWF and 06z/15 HRRR. Presuming these scattered gusts in excess of 45 MPH occur, there would be isolated power outages in our NYC subforum from a few broken tree branches or wind knocking down a few dead trees. Plan on air travel impact-delays Sunday afternoon, and possibly needing a little extra time to arrive at destinations (isolated detours?). Afternoon football games in NYS/NJ may be impacted by wind gusts? 535A/15

Yes, China is a good news, bad news story. China has gone from undeveloped under Chairman Mao to the dominant manufacturing country in the world. That takes energy and the main local fossil-fuel energy source is coal. In part, the developed world has outsourced their emissions to China through the import of manufactured goods. On the flip side, China has rapidly scaled non-fossil clean-energy technology. Driving costs below fossil fuels in many applications and thereby providing a clear path forward to a non-fossil future. It was a gamble on their part and it paid off big time. Now China exports of clean energy equipment provide a large boost to their economy and are reducing emissions around the world. For better or worse we have largely ceded our climate future to China. https://x.com/JessePeltan/status/1989006026520080519 https://bsky.app/profile/laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social/post/3m2jgeqa4es2z

05-06 and 20-21 are la nina years that had a colder/snowier February than January.

Jan/Feb weren't bad at all. Both months were colder and snowier than normal for DEN.

What a postgasm from ineedsnow

Regardless of the maps, the signal is there for the 1500ft+ elevations from Stowe to Jay to get appreciable snow following the messy/rain before that. Also that same elevation at Bretton Woods in Alex’s zone looks just as good. Moist W/NW flow behind the Saturday night system looks to be productive from Sunday PM to Tuesday AM.

Speaking of palm trees, I took this nice little shot about a week ago during my visit to Wilmington. It was surreal seeing that and temps in the upper 70s after days of coolness and clouds in New England. I miss it already!

UHI was definitely in full force here in the city - low of 37F this morning.

Heartbreaking. Sorry to hear

Chin clip lol. Let's just say the girls we were with weren't the best skiers and were not happy when we led them to an icy Chin Clip. They made it unscathed

I may not have mentioned it. Been a tough year. We got married in a small thing in September. She was pregnant earlier this year but we unfortunately lost the baby at 22 weeks to a rare genetic disorder. Obviously kind of turned our whole lives upside down

All my homies hate the wind.

Big m************ snow drifts.

Congrats man. Did I miss that you got remarried?

Around a half inch here tonight. Unexpected

11/15/18

Yep, I'm sick of it too. And it's only just the beginning. What happens if we get a few 12in. Plus snowstorms and then wind days on end.