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  2. Got multiple tornado warnings and severe warnings but no watch up there.
  3. It's affecting the pattern a great deal in the tropics, probably more so than any ENSO event in history at this time of year, but it's impact in the mid latitudes of the N HEM remains rather meager at this time.
  4. The record finished very close to the ECMWF SEAS5 forecast at the top of the range near +1.64°.
  5. UAH warmed in August. Expect similar jumps in other August metrics.
  6. Last night was pretty intense but not as bad as NJ. Lost internet and power restored after an hour or so. Glad I could run the AC until lost power again early this morning and no info on when it will be back on. Pretty sure an outlet blew. Heard it pop. Thought at first TV got fired but plugged it into another outlet and it's fine. I'm done with this stuff.
  7. Optimally, id like to see it develop more west as the morning goes on. That way it increases the chances of a wider hit for us all this evening.
  8. the 2AM SPC outlook pulled the 2% TOR risk down into much of our area, and the 30% wind prob into much of the northern parts of our area. CSU-MLP charts keep most of the TOR north of us but does agree with the 30+% wind area in our northern areas for today and keeps that going with even more of our area covered into tomorrow. Let's see if this holds when the 9AM SPC outlook for today comes out. Still many variables to sort out but should be an interesting next 36 hours or so to track!
  9. Disgusting... Can't beg, borrow, or steal a good storm, but we sure can get an ugly, foggy, dreary, misty morning.
  10. @stadiumwaveCan you link where you generated this image?
  11. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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  12. This post caused an eagle to gain it's wings. It should be a fin day of radar watching. I could really go for some severe. I might cut out of work around 2 and do a lightning chase this afternoon.
  13. That doesn't change the fact that it's initialization of the Pacific is off, so I would still adjust warmer....but that does make a little more sense. Yea, H5 for August at one month lead was good, but that doesn't mean that is always the case every month.
  14. The models haven’t done well showing the storms. Yesterday those storms that ripped ne and eastern Pa weren’t super well shown either. If that area holds together as the atmosphere gets unstable it could be an interesting afternoon.
  15. 10z hrrr made a big flip to carrying that Erie (I call it Lake Freedom now) cluster into central MD
  16. Sure, but we have good reasons to believe that it isn't. I could still doubt that you're one of NYC's finest after you show me your badge and a pic of you sleeping in the cruiser, but that doesn't change the facts. No runs are key if the model incessantly suffers from an erroneous initialization. Again, this doesn't necessarily mean an awful winter is en route, it just means that CANSIPS output is highly flawed. Maybe we will make out okay and score a HECS...both can be true, and in fact, I suspect that they are.
  17. Yes, and I'm not being facetious....quite literally.
  18. -AO/+PNA winter en route.....confirms what I had already figured.
  19. The Franklin Institute in Philly is the 90° day leader across the region this year. Data for January 1, 2026 through September 1, 2026 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. PA PHILADELPHIA FRANKLIN INSTITUTE COOP 43 MD STEVENSVILLE 2SW COOP 41 DE DOVER COOP 41 PA PHILADELPHIA INTL AP WBAN 40 Data for January 1, 2026 through September 1, 2026 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ HARRISON COOP 35 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 29 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 28 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 26
  20. Over 20” in places now, flash flood emergency issued
  21. Storm Chaser Brett Musser is in White Horse, Lancaster County, Pennsylvania. · Follow · Could there been a possible tornado here in Lancaster County this evening? Here is some of the damage from the White Horse area!! Part of a barn roof gone, a one room school house lost its whole roof, trees down on wires, and debris scattered across farm feilds!! All pics taken within a mile of each other.
  22. Today
  23. Some real bad flash flooding going on in that training band on the south side of Edouard. Radar estimates of up to 8" of rain in just the past 3 hours. Nearly 12-16" of rain total
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