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Next week is precariously close to turning into a disaster .

Gaia theory has already been proven. Did you know that trees in the Amazon control their own rainfall? And are you familiar with the wood wide web how trees communicate with each other and mushrooms to control their own environment? By the way I had a long conversation with Gemini about a topic that mutually interests us I'll post some of it to you here: https://www.google.com/search?q=my+google+homepage+had+a+recent+article+on+a+recent+quantum+fluctuations+found+in+the+CMB+but+i+can't+find+the+link+can+you+find+it+for+me+and+does+it+have+anything+to+do+with+the+multiverse+or+cyclic+universe+theory&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOdIBCjEwMzk5NWowajSoAg6wAgE&client=ms-android-att-us-rvc3&sourceid=chrome-mobile&source=chrome.ob&ie=UTF-8&fbs=ABfTbFXXq5_lq1-qc-RNbCT-iVCv1pqpzFbsklS6H69T2lad0GTf_QfkL84T_NcuUjCLgDARHbyGxBgoONb2ZzsFCAMnn5FpLgyJf_3J6jzq_3iFiND4grLzxzUiNcVVuyoRfMiKsGOOY7X4WpN1LCTfZrldpw0TpjvvKV4oUNAOvaUAxCas03At6J2eiT8eezKqSbtYRKWAGaTEJ4VT73Ov27_x1hUyMxZFgnscg-h_xcAJkLt4u9I&aep=10&ntc=1&sxsrf=APpeQnumT__IKLg_2evuZ_4jCuCtXlNPsg%3A1792015565485&mstk=AUtExfAl8s-Mac66jydJ5to_El1JKf9v-eNn1Eak2ZQKRH99EF_Y51kf3_RLFau8TJxkOYqXGA8sRlWbnKyLJoc506zklVqDEIdnp7v25iZh_c3my-KuZ03iSYCogxvQyESpQ40Fks3Xxt8-LPclQd9Y4_OW5akeg0nmgyWwWIjxFMA4A0v9F0egreDUMonvblVjU4F0w8LjGxuacU0MyMUEcRRMJK0xOpOb6Pqt9qiJiUrI7X3AfPxGr6RgfawFzsyOWyITDCAIxG1eXtTPCD5JsBtMgQefa6OVLSHNg0HZ7gK8U8hzLwGFZGt8lPIKXx7t7GEN0vgS-cUx-A&csuir=1&aioh=3&mtid=o_3PauzhAueo5NoPlv_G-AM&udm=50#lfId=ChxjMe https://www.google.com/search?q=my+google+homepage+had+a+recent+article+on+a+recent+quantum+fluctuations+found+in+the+CMB+but+i+can't+find+the+link+can+you+find+it+for+me+and+does+it+have+anything+to+do+with+the+multiverse+or+cyclic+universe+theory&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOdIBCjEwMzk5NWowajSoAg6wAgE&client=ms-android-att-us-rvc3&sourceid=chrome-mobile&source=chrome.ob&ie=UTF-8&fbs=ABfTbFXXq5_lq1-qc-RNbCT-iVCv1pqpzFbsklS6H69T2lad0GTf_QfkL84T_NcuUjCLgDARHbyGxBgoONb2ZzsFCAMnn5FpLgyJf_3J6jzq_3iFiND4grLzxzUiNcVVuyoRfMiKsGOOY7X4WpN1LCTfZrldpw0TpjvvKV4oUNAOvaUAxCas03At6J2eiT8eezKqSbtYRKWAGaTEJ4VT73Ov27_x1hUyMxZFgnscg-h_xcAJkLt4u9I&aep=10&ntc=1&sxsrf=APpeQnumT__IKLg_2evuZ_4jCuCtXlNPsg%3A1792015565485&mstk=AUtExfDIKWopk4_zi8Wat6oTUVMnZ2prTce3qwEZCRq2Xqe4aYq7iCweln0-GyBG05Q1912rEkEns-YM3Z1UtgASGx6pve10N9YxYg94dJEuhlo0eNKb3j_FPMQikPWKFffBDsll7-FR6mdiYdAcNxLxLB5zMVvjtKi8EWUCO2ovu1aUZ2rkK8ifYLjpGuSLvkQwldtDGNhz75d8yiAG9KS5NUY6cndS4o2LFoeyZ-w6jiCrZdAe_CzfgKoytp0c4qH0GTkX3BowByY5CycKfxBWIitUxSifYTwRsAyq0x-xWy_heUk571C_N9sYpkNTDD3Wi5-xke9jvZsFsw&csuir=1&aioh=3&mtid=o_3PauzhAueo5NoPlv_G-AM&udm=50#lfId=ChxjMe They dont kill whales or birds. First of all they can't kill whales at all unless the whales are jumping out of the water and hundreds of feet up. And they dont kill birds because they are computerized to automatically shut off when birds approach. I'd like to have more sunny days for my newly installed solar panels. Warmer winters are actually really good for lower fossil fuel consumption.

Just looking at 12z(Euro) and the 18z GFS, the SE is sitting under a STUBBORN southeast ridge. Pretty much every HP that brings us cool air, slides over to Bermuda, and re-establishes warm, tropical return flow. Today felt like one of those sci-fi movies where the sun was growing hotter over time! El Nino winters "should" place a mean trough over the SE (but w/ poor cold sourcing). Extended summer seems like the recent norm regardless of ENSO. This feels like a La Nina fall with the exception that we have received some rain. Most years, we see the weather "snap" cold later in fall. I think this will be a slow descent into "meh" for December and a good portion of January. Then, I think we could be in business kind of like many 14-15 but less snow. We'll see. I wouldn't be surprised to see some early snow embedded in this warm pattern as crazy as that would seem - some El Nino winters have faux starts. Good to be back. Our family is doing ok. We know my Mom is with the Lord, and not suffering any longer. She fought the good fight and ran a wonderful race. As Jeff noted, she graduated to a place w/ no more suffering, a new home, and a new body. She will be greatly missed, but we will meet again. Thank you all for the notes in the winter spec thread. Those mean a lot.

That time of year. Migration stop for feeding.

It would be nice if it was more sunny October is supposed to be our sunniest month. How much more hot was October 2024? That was my all time favorite October with the warmth and dryness that lasted into mid November. No you shouldn't be sweating because it's not hot. LOSE WEIGHT GET UNDER 180 POUNDS FOR YOUR OWN HEALTH ANT! Was the heat around this time in 1995 due to Hurricane Opal cutting up to our west? I remember NYC hit 86 and the Pope was in town and people were fainting in the heat. As we all know the record setting historic snowfall season began just a month later! Also if this was NYC earliest 32 degree temperature in 1876 why does the record say that the low was actually 34? Interesting comparison between Hurricane Hazel in 1954 and the 1846 hurricane. Do we know how strong the winds were with it when it got up here? Also 1954 had a record high today was that from Hazel? Next weekend will be much better as a matter of fact it will be clear sailing for at least a week after Friday. The cool shot will only be brief and it will be warmer again next week. No it will likely be in the mid 70s again next week after this brief cool shot. Could be in the mid 70s again next week. Wow it was already in the 30s this time in 1993 but hit 80 on November 15th (the latest ever) before the long cold winter began. Just a few drops here and today was still warmer than yesterday here. The warmth is confined to the middle of the country both coasts are cool. We've barely had a few minutes of sunshine here the last two days most of the sunshine was to our west where it got into the mid 80s and set records. No it's actually perfect. You need to lose weight, Ant. It was warmer here today than it was yesterday even with the rain. Last night was really warm even for me and even at 1551 ft lol. Yesterday's splits were 52/70 and today's were 63/72. My highs are a little lower than Mt Pocono yesterday it was 71 there and today it was 73 there. Why is it so cloudy almost all the time? October is supposed to be our funniest month but even when it's not raining it's still mostly cloudy. The last two days the sun came out at 5 pm and the high temperature was at 5:20 pm. Wow no seabreeze today! Did JFK hit 80? Meh the 80 degree temperatures in February 2018 were very isolated.

.16" today, bringing me up to .25" last couple days. Looks like maybe another .10-.20" late tonight/tomorrow am. Kinda lame considering how much moisture this storm has dumped west of the mountains.

Just got up to the home in DC. What a swamp. Was 88F as I rolled in.

only 79.7 here...ISP roasted on those west winds

This was the snow I heard about in Maine I guess yesterday but it was way up in the northwest I guess. Anyone get an inch?

I feel like given the raging El Niño, the torch risk is just going to be ever-present.

So now we get the RRFS, which is a hell of a lot more than just replacing the NAM with a newer model. NOAA is basically cleaning house, retiring the NAM, its 3km nests, SREF, HREF, and most of the HiResW models in favor of one massive 3km system covering most of North America, updating every hour and forecasting out to 84 hours. Along with it comes the REFS ensemble with 14 members, although there's a catch. Twelve of those members come from the same RRFS model family, with six being older runs, and the other two come from the HRRR. So while we're gaining resolution and coverage, we're also losing some of the diversity between completely different models. There's a difference between 14 models independently agreeing on something and 14 relatives all being confidently wrong at the same family reunion. I'm pretty excited about what this thing could do, especially with mesoscale snowbands, convection, and heavy rainfall. But I'm also skeptical about how well it will handle those sharp thermal gradients that can turn 15 inches of snow into 3 inches of sleet over the distance of a few exits on I-81. The early verification has been encouraging, but we haven't seen it survive a full Pennsylvania winter yet. Hopefully we're getting a significant upgrade and not just replacing our one drunk uncle with an entire family of them. I highly doubt it can go anywhere near the entertainment value of the nam when it was wrong and that was the only redeeming part of being wrong Either way, November 3rd begins a pretty interesting new chapter in weather forecasting. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Hit 79 here. Beautiful day.

it’s #happening https://fxtwitter.com/weathernerdga/status/2110512361471631570/video/1?s=46

February 2018 begs to differ I agree no 80s in January though

DCA officially hit 90

I wouldn't be too surprised if LWX calls DCA/IAD/BWI as 89/89/87 as the highs of the day appear to have just missed 90/90/88. Still daily records, though.

Will there be a second wind to this torch or will it be more of a muted warmup after the cold snap?

It’s not like we have a perfect kicker…oh.

We are so back

The 12Z UKMET, Euro, Euro AIFS, and Icon all have a storm of some sort have a storm off the E coast next week. I’m noting this because there’s a strong correlation between very strong El Niños and having one significant to historic U.S. E coast storm in Oct as ALL 9 of the other very strong El Niño Octobers had one: -1877: Hatteras had 1002 mb on 10/27 along with significant rainfall and strong NE winds caused by gradient between a sub 1000 mb low offshore and a 1022 mb high over Quebec. Norfolk got 2.71” of rain. The low was TS #7 then to the S moving OTS: -1888: TS #7 went up the coast 10/11-12: -1957: a strong nor’easter (995 mb) went up the coast 10/5-6 giving Hatteras 4.62” of rain: https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1957/19571006.pdf -1965: TS # 9 formed 10/16 NW Bahamas and hit NE FL 10/19 producing 8.3” on rain at CHS: -1972: very strong nor’easter went up coast NC-NE 10/5-8 with strong winds and heavy rains (>4” NYC, nearly 4” Hatteras): https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1972/19721002-19721008.pdf -1982: strong winds/heavy rain (3.64” of rain Hatteras) from nor’easter 10/23-26 due to strong gradient between 1004 mb low Hatteras and 1030 mb high NE US. I experienced this in DC and still clearly recall the unusual combo of continuous rain, wind, and cold: https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1982/19821018-19821024.pdf https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1982/19821025-19821031.pdf -1991: “Perfect Storm” 10/30-11/1 H #8 (Boston 2.69” of rain): 1997: nor’easter 10/18-20 (Hatteras 1.4” of rain): https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1997/19971013-19971019.pdf https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1997/19971020-19971026.pdf 2015: strong front pushed by 1045 mb SE Canadian high gets hung up along E coast with ~stationary upper low SE US and MH Joaquin ~stationary Bahamas interacting in a way few have ever seen resulting in >17”/historic flooding CHS Oct 1-4: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_stnplot_20151002.html —————— So, all 9 very strong El Niño had one impactful to historic US E coast storm in Oct! Are the 12Z UKMET, Euro, Euro-AIFS, and Icon sniffing out something real for 2026’s turn? Based on the history noted above, I wouldn’t at this point discount at least the possibility of something notable happening near the E coast next week.

It definitely is more influential than the PDO. The PDO is a cumulative reflection of the base ENSO state over the years, it is an extratropical oceanic index that has little to no effect on the long wave pattern.

Well to be fair…we have nonsense talk for mid October already. So I kind of get where he’s coming from. It’s starting earlier and earlier.