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NNE Fall 2012


ctsnowstorm628

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It looks like the ever changing New England weather will be no more for my wife and I come the end of November. My wife and I are moving to Pennsylvania to be closer to family members due to my wife's health issues. It's going to be hard leaving Maine and the wonderful friends we have made. I have had some epic and some not so epic winters while living here on the midcoast. Central PA winters are not too bad, but I will miss the raging gales and blizzards that made me the weather weenie that I am. As far as this NE regional weather board goes, even though I have only met a few of you, I feel like I know each and every one of you like a true friend and I will miss all of you. I will stop by on occasion and drool over the models of upcoming snowstorms for Northern New England, and remember back to the awesome winters that makes New England so special.

Sorry to hear that John, Hope everything works out for you and your spouse, You will still be welcomed back here, Good luck

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Local forecaster on abc affiliate just mentioned and wrote "flurries?" on the 11pm forecast for Sunday...will first snow be within the next two weeks?
gfs says period of snow possible sunday, i think euro gives elevations some snow as well. (sun nite) .
I'm really interested in the wave that wants to ride up a stalled front on the upcoming sunday....

Roger hasn’t been on the air on WDEV this week, but I’m sure he would have commented on the snow potential – especially since both models seem to have it. It’s great to see the discussion here though - it’s certainly time for snow threats. Accounting for days where the snow may have melted before the evening reading, the Mt. Mansfield stake data would argue that chance for October accumulating snow in the high country is >90%. It must take bad luck or just the right weather pattern to get totally shut out of snow for October, and it doesn’t seem like this is that sort of pattern.

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Roger hasn’t been on the air on WDEV this week, but I’m sure he would have commented on the snow potential – especially since both models seem to have it. It’s great to see the discussion here though - it’s certainly time for snow threats. Accounting for days where the snow may have melted before the evening reading, the Mt. Mansfield stake data would argue that chance for October accumulating snow in the high country is >90%. It must take bad luck or just the right weather pattern to get totally shut out of snow for October, and it doesn’t seem like this is that sort of pattern.

I wouldn't get too excited anywhere in civilization, yet. Probably a cold rain with maybe a few inches for PF at 3k if timing happens to be overnight.

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I wouldn't get too excited anywhere in civilization, yet. Probably a cold rain with maybe a few inches for PF at 3k if timing happens to be overnight.

Yeah, Mentioned it yesterday in the banter thread, Anything below 3,000' is going to be a cold rain, And even above that is questionable, I think around the 13th has a better shot at frozen and at lower elevations as well

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Yeah, Mentioned it yesterday in the banter thread, Anything below 3,000' is going to be a cold rain, And even above that is questionable, I think around the 13th has a better shot at frozen and at lower elevations as well

Yeah I just renewed my EURO subscription :) so I looked at the 0z and saw a slightly colder regime than this upcoming weekend during the 12-14th timeframe.

With regards to this weekend, this has a 44F and rain vibe to me, with non accumulating snow above like 3,500-4,000ft. 850's are cold, so if this recent runs verified, it'd be a 3-6" deal on MWN lol

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I wouldn't get too excited anywhere in civilization, yet. Probably a cold rain with maybe a few inches for PF at 3k if timing happens to be overnight.

I usually don't like asking IMBY questions but figured this would help you practice your forecasting :P What are your thoughts for Sunday, during the day? I am supposed to go on a golf outing a couple of exits south of KLEB on I-89 and am hoping it won't be a toatal washout. It sounds like some models are slower with the precip, holding off until Sunday night. I am hoping that is the case.

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I usually don't like asking IMBY questions but figured this would help you practice your forecasting :P What are your thoughts for Sunday, during the day? I am supposed to go on a golf outing a couple of exits south of KLEB on I-89 and am hoping it won't be a toatal washout. It sounds like some models are slower with the precip, holding off until Sunday night. I am hoping that is the case.

Well, both models have precip (rain) into KLEB by 17-18z (1-2pm). It's mainly over running precip, so it should be too heavy, but it'll be raw during the afternoon for sure...probably like 48-52F with light rain.

But as always, keep an eye out because these events can change their timing over the upcoming runs. And keep the IMBY stuff coming! I don't mind doing them for you guys! :)

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Well, both models have precip (rain) into KLEB by 17-18z (1-2pm). It's mainly over running precip, so it should be too heavy, but it'll be raw during the afternoon for sure...probably like 48-52F with light rain.

But as always, keep an eye out because these events can change their timing over the upcoming runs. And keep the IMBY stuff coming! I don't mind doing them for you guys! :)

Yeah, this was sort of the feel I was getting, I was just hoping for a ray of sunshine :sun: . Actually, if the rain can hold off, I like playing in cool, overcast conditions. The temps are fine as long as there is no wind. Thanks for the help and be careful what you ask for, you could be overrun with rampant :weenie: 's!

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I just can't get over the foliage... you know its good when jaded bearded snowmakers are out taking pictures that its something special, lol.

Snowmaking Control building with the notch walls on fire.

The trees around the parking lot at the mountain are just absolutely nuts right now... doesn't matter if the sun is out or not. The leaves are just glowing.

And cloudy, misty day... still glowing.

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October opens with cloudy and mild - kind of a lowery day here, though dry, and colors IMBY are at peak and very nice. Red maples are on fire, with sugar maples coming on strong (though they never can match the RM.) I drove through "downtown" Industry Monday afternoon, to enjoy the view looking northerly across Clearwater Pond to the hills behind. The viewing point is 5 miles NE from the middle of Farmington, the pond at 561' and the hills rising another 1,000' or more behind it. The lower half of the hills were at peak while the upper half was clearly past, with considerable gray - leaf drop - in evidence. If we get a windy system this long weekend, the leaves will fly.

PF: Super colors! While the clouds/mist can mess up the long vistas, IMO they make the nearby full-color trees glow more brightly, same way a flashlight looks brighter at night than in daytime.

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Hey PF, you thought the foliage would maybe be muted early on, but did it brighten after those nights in the 30s? That seems to do the trick.

The key is lots of sun during the day and lots of cool crisp (but not freezing) nights. Low water in the summer can be somewhat of a hindrance in that it could cause the leaves to fall off before peak foliage, but that clearly didn't happen.

As long as the leaves stayed on the trees, we had great weather for foliage to become vibrant regardless of low water in the sumemr or not. The weather that brings out the colors is the sunny/cool nights...kills the cholophyll and gets the sugars going. Its really starting to look good down here too.

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The key is lots of sun during the day and lots of cool crisp (but not freezing) nights. Low water in the summer can be somewhat of a hindrance in that it could cause the leaves to fall off before peak foliage, but that clearly didn't happen.

As long as the leaves stayed on the trees, we had great weather for foliage to become vibrant regardless of low water in the sumemr or not. The weather that brings out the colors is the sunny/cool nights...kills the cholophyll and gets the sugars going. Its really starting to look good down here too.

It's great on my ride home. The weather has been great for that. I thought I recall him worrying about the colors very early in September since it was a little dry there, but those weather conditions must have really brought it out.

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Hey PF, you thought the foliage would maybe be muted early on, but did it brighten after those nights in the 30s? That seems to do the trick.

Yeah that must've did it...or I just didn't wait long enough. It started turning muted around Labor Day like a month ago, so I'm realizing its a more fluid situation than I thought. I figured the summer weather pattern could sort of dictate it, but it seems that September is much, much more important than anything that happens prior.

I mean we were having 40F diurnal spreads from 30s to 70s under clear/sunny skies. Tim Kelley was up at the mountain yesterday and the two of us were talking about it... he seemed to agree the weather in September was about perfect for foliage. I think he posted a bunch on Twitter too. He also seemed pretty enthusiastic about this winter for everyone from his home along the MA coast to the NNE mountains.

Anyway, even in the rain the trees look ridiculous.

IMG_7962_edited-2.jpg

IMG_7967_edited-2.jpg

IMG_7978_edited-2.jpg

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The key is lots of sun during the day and lots of cool crisp (but not freezing) nights. Low water in the summer can be somewhat of a hindrance in that it could cause the leaves to fall off before peak foliage, but that clearly didn't happen.

As long as the leaves stayed on the trees, we had great weather for foliage to become vibrant regardless of low water in the sumemr or not. The weather that brings out the colors is the sunny/cool nights...kills the cholophyll and gets the sugars going. Its really starting to look good down here too.

I think the crisp nights without freezing did it... here locally and at MVL we had 11 days with minimums in the 30s (all after like September 10th) but never got below 34F. We had a touch of frost but have not had near a hard freeze in this area, even up at the ski area base the wind stays up, so they had a lot of upper 30s lows where the leaves are the best right now.

I also think you guys will have a fantastic foliage season... we are peaking now, you guys are just probably 10 days behind or away from peak? I don't know how its going down there, but I assume SNE on the whole is probably 10-14 days later than the mountains up here.

My photos are just a preview of what you guys will be seeing soon.

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Another interesting observation from a few friends I work with is that the leaves on the western slope and adjacent foothills are not as vibrant as they are on this side of the Spine and interior north/central VT. Here in the valley to the east of the mountain we had about twice as many good radiational cooling nights down into the 30s while the west side had pesky winds from the Champlain Valley. I think I pointed that out a few times where the interior sites would be 36F and calm while BTV and areas were 50F 10G15.

I really like trying to figure out the foliage stuff and why it does what it does, but all I know is I want a repeat September. Tons of 30s but no hard freeze and warm sunny days.

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I wouldn't get too excited anywhere in civilization, yet. Probably a cold rain with maybe a few inches for PF at 3k if timing happens to be overnight.

Yeah, the data used for that analysis are from the Mt. Mansfield Stake, which is up there at almost 4,000’. Those trends certainly can’t be translated to the valleys at this time of year, but getting at least some snow up at that elevation during October is pretty routine.

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Yeah, the data used for that analysis are from the Mt. Mansfield Stake, which is up there at almost 4,000’. Those trends certainly can’t be translated to the valleys at this time of year, but getting at least some snow up at that elevation during October is pretty routine.

Agreed. Someone above 3k will see a dusting in NNE Sunday into Monday I think.

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Agreed. Someone above 3k will see a dusting in NNE Sunday into Monday I think.

I'm working up top for the Columbus Day crowds on Monday...will be driving the ATV up the work road to almost 3,700ft first thing Monday morning, so I'm hoping to cross the snow line somewhere up high. At the very least some rime should be on the trees.

Of course there will be pictures but the timing looks pretty good for a little white at first light up there.

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Great pics PF. The foliage up there looks a lot better than it does here. The maples here are mostly a muted yellow/orange due to dry conditions we've had this summer. You also don't have many oaks up there, which are still green when the maples peak. With the oaks, you will have quite a bit of green mixed in with the other colors. Without them, the more vibrant maples dominate like they do where you are.

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Hey PF, you thought the foliage would maybe be muted early on, but did it brighten after those nights in the 30s? That seems to do the trick.

It was on the drab side earlier in the fall but the cool frosty, or nearly so, mornings we've had did light things up quite a bit.

The ash are nearly bare though and the maples are shedding fast and furious now. I can see considerably further into the woods today than I could just a couple days ago.

A shot from the hood this past Tuesday morning:

8053478595_4bdb78fd5a_z.jpg

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Sweet shot Allenson...I noticed the same thing this morning, the leaves are falling fast and furious. More open space in areas of the forest and yesterday I parked my car under a maple and had to use the snow brush to clean it off. I had no idea that many leaves could come down in 8 hours but I could barely see any part of the body of my car...just covered in wet yellow leaves.

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It was on the drab side earlier in the fall but the cool frosty, or nearly so, mornings we've had did light things up quite a bit.

The ash are nearly bare though and the maples are shedding fast and furious now. I can see considerably further into the woods today than I could just a couple days ago.

A shot from the hood this past Tuesday morning:

8053478595_4bdb78fd5a_z.jpg

Ah, our one brief break of sun in the last week!

Sweet shot Allenson...I noticed the same thing this morning, the leaves are falling fast and furious. More open space in areas of the forest and yesterday I parked my car under a maple and had to use the snow brush to clean it off. I had no idea that many leaves could come down in 8 hours but I could barely see any part of the body of my car...just covered in wet yellow leaves.

Ditto to both of your observations. It has been a beautiful season but by this time next week it will be noticably diminished, at least in northern areas.

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I'm working up top for the Columbus Day crowds on Monday...will be driving the ATV up the work road to almost 3,700ft first thing Monday morning, so I'm hoping to cross the snow line somewhere up high. At the very least some rime should be on the trees.

Of course there will be pictures but the timing looks pretty good for a little white at first light up there.

The 0z EURO is nice for you at 3,700ft overnight Sunday night dude. Like probably 28-30F with SN...probably 3-5" per that run.

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