mappy Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I personally don't mind the idea of cleaning house, but I'd think a lot of the posts are made in (sarcastic) jest because so many of us can't help but watch in amazement as areas all around us have gotten a good storm at one point or another so far this year. Am I allowed to say "cool story?" You can say whatever you want, just as I can too. But here... I'll do it for you: Cool Story Mapgirl! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdsofprey02 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 6Z GFS had exactly .20 for BWI seems like BWI should be somewhere between .15-.25" hopefully verifying at the high end of the range Where do you find the QPF amounts for individual areas according to GFS or NAM, etc.? I was going by this, but if you say .20 for BWI, then coolwx must not be pulling from an official location. http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=MD&stn=KBWI&model=gfs&time=2011012006&field=prec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 A slight step back from the ledge I've jumped off so many times in 52 years, it just doesn't hurt any more when I land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Where do you find the QPF amounts for individual areas according to GFS or NAM, etc.? I was going by this, but if you say .20 for BWI, then coolwx must not be pulling from an official location. http://coolwx.com/cg...2006&field=prec pay site don't want to say which because of obvious reasons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I've jumped off so many times in 52 years, it just doesn't hurt any more when I land Almost the same here. It still hurts some though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Where do you find the QPF amounts for individual areas according to GFS or NAM, etc.? I was going by this, but if you say .20 for BWI, then coolwx must not be pulling from an official location. http://coolwx.com/cg...2006&field=prec If you look at temps, it has a layer above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 there's still time for a flight to boston I'm on the 7 AM train to NY tomorrow (unless the snow closes the courts) You can say whatever you want, just as I can too. But here... I'll do it for you: Cool Story Mapgirl! Call her Katie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 If you look at temps, it has a layer above freezing. I checked 3-hour soundings this morning Wes and there was not a warm layer surface got up to +.5C for one 3 hour period, then dropped like a rock but bufkit did show a mix too, so I don't know what to believe thicknesses maxed at 538 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I'm on the 7 AM train to NY tomorrow (unless the snow closes the courts) take pics so i can remember what snow looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 take pics so i can remember what snow looks like here is one from CT storm last week... one of my coworkers sent it to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 GFS showing some warmth at 1AM tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 DCA sounding at 06Z, warm surface temps! Date: 18 hour Eta valid 6Z FRI 21 JAN 11 Station: KDCA Latitude: 38.85 Longitude: -77.03 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 1000 46 SFC 999 55 2.0 -0.4 84 2.4 1.0 160 4 275.3 275.9 274.2 285.4 3.71 2 950 459 1.3 0.9 97 0.4 1.1 187 22 278.5 279.2 276.8 290.3 4.29 3 900 894 0.6 0.4 98 0.2 0.5 213 34 282.2 282.9 278.8 294.4 4.38 4 850 1351 -1.9 -2.1 99 0.2 -2.0 226 39 284.2 284.8 279.1 295.1 3.85 5 800 1831 -4.7 -5.0 97 0.4 -4.8 230 37 286.2 286.7 279.4 295.6 3.28 6 750 2336 -7.3 -9.1 87 1.7 -7.9 225 39 288.6 289.0 279.6 296.1 2.56 7 700 2871 -9.5 -13.3 74 3.8 -10.7 223 50 291.9 292.3 280.4 297.8 1.95 8 650 3442 -11.4 -14.4 78 3.0 -12.3 225 62 296.1 296.5 282.2 302.0 1.93 9 600 4052 -14.0 -15.1 92 1.1 -14.3 228 70 299.9 300.3 283.8 306.1 1.98 10 550 4709 -17.5 -18.5 92 1.0 -17.7 230 77 303.3 303.6 284.8 308.5 1.62 11 500 5415 -22.8 -23.9 91 1.1 -23.1 233 85 305.2 305.4 284.9 308.8 1.10 12 450 6179 -28.1 -29.8 85 1.7 -28.3 234 95 307.9 308.1 285.4 310.4 0.72 13 400 7014 -33.8 -36.1 79 2.4 -34.0 235 108 311.1 311.2 286.2 312.6 0.44 14 350 7938 -40.0 -44.3 64 4.3 -40.3 232 118 314.8 314.8 287.3 315.6 0.21 15 300 8972 -47.5 -52.5 57 5.0 -47.7 233 132 318.3 318.4 288.3 318.7 0.10 16 250 10155 -54.5 -58.8 59 4.4 -54.6 236 136 325.0 325.1 290.3 325.3 0.05 17 200 11579 -54.5 -62.0 39 7.5 -54.6 243 123 346.5 346.5 295.9 346.7 0.05 18 150 13420 -55.2 -68.8 17 13.6 -55.5 248 95 375.0 375.0 301.4 375.1 0.02 19 100 15993 -57.2 -79.4 4 22.2 -57.6 249 63 417.3 417.3 307.4 417.3 0.01 Same deal for BWI Date: 18 hour Eta valid 6Z FRI 21 JAN 11 Station: KBWI Latitude: 39.18 Longitude: -76.67 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SFC 1000 46 1.8 1.0 95 0.8 1.4 136 5 274.9 275.6 274.6 286.1 4.11 1 1000 47 1.0 0.3 95 0.7 0.7 141 5 274.1 274.8 273.8 284.7 3.90 2 950 459 0.3 0.1 99 0.2 0.2 173 23 277.5 278.2 275.9 288.6 4.05 3 900 892 0.0 -0.0 100 0.1 0.0 202 35 281.5 282.3 278.3 293.4 4.24 4 850 1349 -1.9 -2.0 99 0.1 -2.0 218 41 284.1 284.8 279.1 295.1 3.88 5 800 1829 -4.8 -4.9 99 0.1 -4.8 225 40 286.1 286.7 279.4 295.6 3.32 6 750 2333 -7.7 -8.6 93 0.9 -8.0 224 40 288.2 288.7 279.5 296.0 2.65 7 700 2867 -10.2 -13.3 78 3.1 -11.2 220 49 291.2 291.5 280.0 297.0 1.96 8 650 3436 -12.2 -15.2 79 2.9 -13.1 223 61 295.1 295.4 281.6 300.6 1.80 9 600 4045 -14.4 -15.5 91 1.1 -14.7 227 70 299.4 299.8 283.5 305.3 1.90 10 550 4701 -17.6 -18.5 93 0.9 -17.9 229 77 303.2 303.5 284.7 308.3 1.61 11 500 5407 -22.8 -23.7 92 0.9 -22.9 231 83 305.3 305.5 284.9 309.0 1.13 12 450 6171 -28.2 -29.6 88 1.4 -28.5 232 93 307.8 307.9 285.4 310.2 0.73 13 400 7005 -34.1 -36.0 83 1.9 -34.3 235 106 310.7 310.8 286.1 312.3 0.44 14 350 7927 -40.3 -44.2 66 3.9 -40.6 232 117 314.4 314.4 287.1 315.2 0.22 15 300 8961 -47.8 -52.6 58 4.8 -48.0 232 132 317.9 317.9 288.2 318.3 0.10 16 250 10142 -54.7 -58.9 60 4.1 -54.8 235 135 324.7 324.7 290.2 324.9 0.05 17 200 11565 -54.3 -62.0 38 7.7 -54.5 243 120 346.8 346.8 296.0 346.9 0.05 18 150 13408 -54.9 -68.8 16 14.0 -55.2 248 93 375.6 375.6 301.5 375.7 0.02 19 100 15985 -56.9 -79.7 4 22.8 -57.3 248 62 417.7 417.7 307.4 417.8 0.01 TRP 0 WND 0 09Z BWi temps still above freezing at the ground, the same with dc. Snow is not likely to accumulate very quickly with the surface temps above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 this is another one of those storms where you wonder why you tracked it for more than 10 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 here is one from CT storm last week... one of my coworkers sent it to me look how they put the candles out in the snow for that picture...very romantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 another last minute jumped to the North by the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 BWI-.16" DCA-.13" IAD-.14" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 You can say whatever you want, just as I can too. But here... I'll do it for you: Cool Story Mapgirl! Well said! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 12 z GFS looks like the NAM and GFS from 2-3 days ago...only slightly north of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 BWI-.16" DCA-.13" IAD-.14" Sounds like the RGEM... a tad less. RGEM/GFS combo FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 GFS says NAM was onto something for NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 another last minute jumped to the North by the GFS About .17 bwi, .21 for Mtn it seems. Agree radar looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeRedheads Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 You wont get more than a dusting-1"...roll with it. I hope you have better social skills in real life. Jeez. So many annoying Baltimore weenies here now. No kidding. Am I considered a Baltimore weenie? I only work there Never! BTW, love the photo from CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Never! BTW, love the photo from CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 this is another one of those storms where you wonder why you tracked it for more than 10 minutes Agree. These last minute bumps to the north and drops in the qpf to the south is just downright ridiculous. On to the Hoffman storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 GFS says NAM was onto something for NE nam outperformed the gfs up there on jan 11. def not as good a situation but it's their yr so it will snow a good bit whenever there is an opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 yeah tho it has been before and been wrong. id guess they'll get 4-8 or so. I guess if there's any region to be upset by for getting snow -- which doesn't make much sense anyway-- it would be New York/NJ. I mean, New England is going to get a lot more snow than we do in like 98% of winters. Remember the two recent winters in a row (I think 07-09) where Boston had 25" of snow in December while we had to wait and wait and wait between any threats? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 BWI-.16" DCA-.13" IAD-.14" Trouble is the low goes right over you and the surfact emp is above freezing until you get to the highlands north of baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 It is not very cold outside. I normally laugh at weenies that worry over that, but it doesn't feel much like snow right now. That .20 of liquid won't do much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I guess if there's any region to be upset by for getting snow -- which doesn't make much sense anyway-- it would be New York/NJ. I mean, New England is going to get a lot more snow than we do in like 98% of winters. Remember the two recent winters in a row (I think 07-09) where Boston had 25" of snow in December while we had to wait and wait and wait between any threats? it doesnt really bother me much that they get snow if/when we dont, but i agree that i'd rather them get it than nyc/nj. at this pt i'm probably partly rooting for them to top 100" in the area just since everything seems to want to snow hard on them at least for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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