Kmlwx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 DCA gets 3-5 inches of snow between 11pm tomorrow night and 11am Friday morning. Then strong CAA takes hold, blowing it all over the place with wind gusts to 40 knots and temps struggle to hit the upper 20s. Lock it in and Bank it. Stormtracker gets the only lolli: 6 inches. We all wish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Actually i just watched Tom Tassylmeyer and he said 1-3" with possibly 4" right up by the PA border. He is by far the best in our area and usually correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Welcome to me mentioning this and us talking about this... oh around 6-7 PM or so I'm pretty sure LWX has been too high on every snow event so far this season, except one -- the ice storm forecast which they down played until four hours after it started.. I'm not usually one to bash them, but they don't have the best track record this year of predicting snowfall amounts 30 hours before a storm is set to begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 850's are crashing as it snows per the GFS... -3 at DCA at 30 and -9 at 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Actually i just watched Tom Tassylmeyer and he said 1-3" with possibly 4" right up by the PA border. He is by far the best in our area and usually correct. Tasselmyer is definitely one of our best.......he is calm, he doesn't hype, but he also isn't afraid to forecast huge totals when they are likely (think last winter). His twin sons are my age and they went to my HS, and they are now at my college. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Actually i just watched Tom Tassylmeyer and he said 1-3" with possibly 4" right up by the PA border. He is by far the best in our area and usually correct. It's probably pretty good or sounds that way. I would use Jan 11 as a base and subtract about 1" most places (less around here hopefully). It's not as dynamic but seems to have more to work with to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 at least the window is still open for a secs in sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 My gosh the ensembles are good, nice. Btw Ian, here's our model at 30hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 It's probably pretty good or sounds that way. I would use Jan 11 as a base and subtract about 1" most places (less around here hopefully). It's not as dynamic but seems to have more to work with to start. On the 11th i got 2.6" so subtracting 1" for me would not be great, but in this winter i will gladly take 1.6" and hopefully we get something bigger next week. How much did you get on the 11th?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 On the 11th i got 2.6" so subtracting 1" for me would not be great, but in this winter i will gladly take 1.6" and hopefully we get something bigger next week. How much did you get on the 11th?. my equation might not be that good... i got 1.5 anyway, his range is solid i think. down here i'd lean toward the low end but could see 3"+ up near the border and ne of balt without much trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 My gosh the ensembles are good, nice. Btw Ian, here's our model at 30hr. awesome stuff right here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 awesome stuff right here Now that is funny . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 even the cras is almost huggable tonight. im sure someone in sne is. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/00/images/cras45na_slp_036l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 my equation might not be that good... i got 1.5 anyway, his range is solid i think. down here i'd lean toward the low end but could see 3"+ up near the border and ne of balt without much trouble. I get your drift though, i am also excited because even if we get 2" it should stick around for a while with the upcoming cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 even the cras is almost huggable tonight. im sure someone in sne is. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/00/images/cras45na_slp_036l.gif When you start posting the cras i know you are desperate and it might really be time for a break . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 sorry that last one was 24hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 sorry that last one was 24hr. Think on the bright side at least you have the right oceans drawn on your map . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 When you start posting the cras i know you are desperate and it might really be time for a break . my new goal is to determine the usefulness of the cras. it might be the best model out there at hour 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 my new goal is to determine the usefulness of the cras. it might be the best model out there at hour 12. It predicts what happened yesterday like nobody's business either that or Ji's mood swings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Enjoy folks, these are they key frames lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 It predicts what happened yesterday like nobody's business either that or Ji's mood swings you cant get stuff like this anywhere else though and this is while the tiny vort was moving north on other models already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Enjoy folks, these are they key frames lol midlo is going to squash you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 You need to seriously reconsider your fonts in those images, dd.... You also forgot a legend that indicates what the shading amounts are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 you cant get stuff like this anywhere else though and this is while the tiny vort was moving north on other models already. The date is wrong...wouldn't it be 1/20 because 00z is now 1/20 (new day)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 euro is wetter, but not much.. brings .1" to md/pa border.. .05 to just north of dc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 You need to seriously reconsider your fonts in those images, dd.... You also forgot a legend that indicates what the shading amounts are. Hey its in the works Ell, but I know about the key, I didn't put in a key this first set of frames because we know whats up. When it gets professional, you know ill make it right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 precip expanded a good bit overall to the north tho, mainly ny/pa thru sne but maybe a sign it's 'filling in'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 my new goal is to determine the usefulness of the cras. it might be the best model out there at hour 12. If you are analyzing the cras can you also analyze DD's model for me it seems like a beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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