mitchnick Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 OK, I guess people have every right to defend those associated with the models, but this is what the NAM showed on the 6Z run, only 18 hours ago for total qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Ok instead of just crying about why the snow is gone on the NAM, here is the biggest reason why. Earlier runs of the NAM phased the southern energy into the northern jet and thus a more amped and significant storm. I had a feeling this was BS as the seasonal trend was for the northern jet to squash or leave behind the stj until off the east coast. It also has been for the northern jet to dig less then modeled. This is exactly what has happened. The northern jet leaves the southern energy behind and splits. No phase, no storm. This is the 6z NAM from this morning. Its not as amped as previous runs but its the last run that had a significant storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 new rsm looks decent - http://www.meteo.psu...EAST_0z/f39.gif .25 for DC north not that it matters but the nam looks weird with a 1004 low just of the GA/SC coast. It's 4mb deeper than 18z and a little further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 At the same time, I think the NAM may have gone too far. SREF still looked good for 1-3" and this is just one run, and a model that tends to have screwy runs from time to time. Lets wait for the RGEM and GFS before jumping ship completely on 1-3. If RGEM and GFS come in dry like this...then yea its over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 At the same time, I think the NAM may have gone too far. SREF still looked good for 1-3" and this is just one run, and a model that tends to have screwy runs from time to time. Lets wait for the RGEM and GFS before jumping ship completely on 1-3. If RGEM and GFS come in dry like this...then yea its over. I hear ya', but you know things are tough when you're praying the NAM was too dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 At the same time, I think the NAM may have gone too far. SREF still looked good for 1-3" and this is just one run, and a model that tends to have screwy runs from time to time. Lets wait for the RGEM and GFS before jumping ship completely on 1-3. If RGEM and GFS come in dry like this...then yea its over. come to think of it, looking at the RSM, that explains why the SREF's are so much higher than the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I hear ya', but you know things are tough when you're praying the NAM was too dry its not that I think its too dry, it might have totally crapped the bed on something though. NAM has really screwy runs sometimes even at short lead times. Not sure why, if it has to do with its high resolution and having small hiccups throw it off but it does sometimes. Remember how with the December HECS last winter it had one run around 48 hours out that gave NW of DC like 45" of snow. Then a few runs later is shifted everything south on one of its 6z runs and my area up here was almost completely dry. Then 12z brought it right back north. Its has been known to have bad runs. THis was definitely a bad sign but its just one model from the 0z suite. Let everything come in and the full package play out before we overreact. Thats all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Frustrating...so very frustrating. What can we do about it? Nothing. All we can do is deal with it and hope next week turns out better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 its not that I think its too dry, it might have totally crapped the bed on something though. NAM has really screwy runs sometimes even at short lead times. Not sure why, if it has to do with its high resolution and having small hiccups throw it off but it does sometimes. Remember how with the December HECS last winter it had one run around 48 hours out that gave NW of DC like 45" of snow. Then a few runs later is shifted everything south on one of its 6z runs and my area up here was almost completely dry. Then 12z brought it right back north. Its has been known to have bad runs. THis was definitely a bad sign but its just one model from the 0z suite. Let everything come in and the full package play out before we overreact. Thats all. again, I hear ya', but my one word for consideration...Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Add HSE to the list of places that will have more snow then DC in 4 days says the NAM. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Add HSE to the list of places that will have more snow then DC in 4 days says the NAM. LOL Euro's been showing that for a couple days which is another reason why I fear its .03" for tomorrow night at BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 again, I hear ya', but my one word for consideration...Euro I love how the euro has been crap all winter showing snow after snow after snow. Then the first time its saying no its right. This really is like a bad movie on repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I love how the euro has been crap all winter showing snow after snow after snow. Then the first time its saying no its right. This really is like a bad movie on repeat. +1003 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Euro's been showing that for a couple days which is another reason why I fear its .03" for tomorrow night at BWI Yes, you are right, the NAM has become a carbon copy of the Euro. Of course 3 days ago the Euro had that storm hitting us with a HECS. Thats the DT NADS storm. So the euro was right about this storm missing us, but was wrong about the next storm hitting us. Wonderful... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 See that storm off the coast at 78 on the NAM? I think we want that thing to explode and head north to help lock the cold in for our next system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 maybe that storm off the east coast will lower heights enough so the next s/w (aka psuhoffman storm) can dig further I'm trying here folks, I'm trying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 See that storm off the coast at 78 on the NAM? I think we want that thing to explode and head north to help lock the cold in for our next system yes we do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 This winter sucks. The psu storm will end up being a miller b Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 If were going with seasonal trends, then I expect the far NW zones including Frederick to over-perform. We've had 8-9" total so far when the prediction said we should have had less than 4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Perhaps someone that has better knowledge of the programming and tendencies of these models can help out but I took a peak at the individual members of the SREF. Very interesting. All 6 runs of the ETA members look identical to the 0z NAM if not worse. All the rest of the runs, all the runs of the RSM, ARW, and NMM are wetter and have about .2 for DC and .3 for BWI in most cases. perhaps someone knows more about these models to give us a clue as to what is going on there. What the RSM, ARW, and NMM runs are seeing that the ETA and NAM is not. Its not a big difference just I am curious and always looking to learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Mitch, you were correct about the srefs. The rgm members are the best, but all of them look better than 15z did. All except one. ETA 3 is awful. Any tie to the NAM there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Perhaps someone that has better knowledge of the programming and tendencies of these models can help out but I took a peak at the individual members of the SREF. Very interesting. All 6 runs of the ETA members look identical to the 0z NAM if not worse. All the rest of the runs, all the runs of the RSM, ARW, and NMM are wetter and have about .2 for DC and .3 for BWI in most cases. perhaps someone knows more about these models to give us a clue as to what is going on there. What the RSM, ARW, and NMM runs are seeing that the ETA and NAM is not. Its not a big difference just I am curious and always looking to learn. lol, I just posted similar to yours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Mitch, you were correct about the srefs. The rgm members are the best, but all of them look better than 15z did. All except one. ETA 3 is awful. Any tie to the NAM there? I just posted all of the SREF above, actually all the ETA members are bad, some worse then the NAM some slightly better, but its clear whatever bad mojo the NAM ingested got into the ETA also. The real question is, are the ETA/NAM seeing something the other cant and if so why? Is there something about the dynamics of the models? Or is this an indication they are out to lunch. I do not know enough about the SREF members individual bias to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I just posted all of the SREF above, actually all the ETA members are bad, some worse then the NAM some slightly better, but its clear whatever bad mojo the NAM ingested got into the ETA also. The real question is, are the ETA/NAM seeing something the other cant and if so why? Is there something about the dynamics of the models? Or is this an indication they are out to lunch. I do not know enough about the SREF members individual bias to say. The consequence of the 0Z NAM run does not just affect us. In the even shorter term, those areas that have WSWarnings out now in southern IN and northern KY are locked out by the 0Z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I just posted all of the SREF above, actually all the ETA members are bad, some worse then the NAM some slightly better, but its clear whatever bad mojo the NAM ingested got into the ETA also. The real question is, are the ETA/NAM seeing something the other cant and if so why? Is there something about the dynamics of the models? Or is this an indication they are out to lunch. I do not know enough about the SREF members individual bias to say. With regard to the ETA members, 4 showed improvement over 15z, 1 stayed the same, and the one just got even worse and it was already bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The consequence of the 0Z NAM run does not just affect us. In the even shorter term, those areas that have WSWarnings out now in southern IN and northern KY are locked out by the 0Z NAM. Looking at radar and NAM simulated radar and precip, I will say the NAM is not doing all that great with what is actually happening right now so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 With regard to the ETA members, 4 showed improvement over 15z, 1 stayed the same, and the one just got even worse and it was already bad. I am not doubting you, I was not comparing them to previous runs, just to the other members of the SREF this run and to the 0z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 36 hrs on the 00z RGEM -- http://www.weatherof...ast/513_100.gif Probably 3mm... 4 if you are more toward BWI -- which is 0.10-0.15 area wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Why is everyone acting like the NAM is so crazy? It now agrees with the Euro, which has the best QPF verification scores at this range. Expect the GFS to agree. I know Wes likes the SREFs, but they have mostly been garbage lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 36 hrs on the 00z RGEM -- http://www.weatherof...ast/513_100.gif Probably 3mm... 4 if you are more toward BWI -- which is 0.10-0.15 area wide yep RGEM is better then NAM but not by much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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