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The Beat Goes On - JAN 21 Threat


PhineasC

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After being in the low 50's today and probably above freezing tonight and most of tomorrow, unless the precip is heavy- which doesn't seem likely around here, I really can't see this amounting to really anything, even with a nighttime event. so whether we get .10 or .15 probably won't matter all that much.

That's one way to look at it I guess.

Me however, I'll take anything I can get.

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Well it looks like the GFS and SREF are against the EURO and NAM. Interesting points about the eta looking very similiar to the NAM while the other sref members were more bullish.

Going with the NAM and EURO.

The NAM has had a lot of problems with continuity lately. I would not buy the 0z solution without pause. The fact that the Euro keeps shutting us out should be a concern, but it has also had problems with qpf at least. The GFS is probably still a front-runner at least in my mind as it's performed relatively well and has been pretty stable. BUT we should probably also keep in mind that for the last event (not the ice one which was very different) most of the models ended up too wet -- Midlo started a thread about it. ;) A blend of the GFS and NAM is probably still a good way to go though maybe throw out this last NAM and see what it does next.

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Pattern change

the storm on the 11th had a really powerful vort, this one does not though it has more overrunning moisture it seems (hopefully). that one cut just south and southeast of BOS while this is forecast to go to their north generally and looks fairly weak still up there. you'd think they would get more than us in the end and probably will but it doesnt quite have the look.

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were getting some stuff together so we can have a model ran operationally like here at AmericanWx. Its quite a good idea you guys came up with, thanks for offering a high level model for us.

I figured you drew it. That's cool.. We need more models. ;)

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Wow......

MDZ006-201000-

NORTHERN BALTIMORE-

900 PM EST WED JAN 19 2011

.REST OF TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTHWEST

WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.

.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING CLOUDY.

HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOW...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. TOTAL SNOW

ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. SOUTHEAST

WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT.

.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING. HIGHS IN

THE LOWER 30S. WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

CHANCE OF SNOW 50 PERCENT.

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Wow......

MDZ006-201000-

NORTHERN BALTIMORE-

900 PM EST WED JAN 19 2011

.REST OF TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTHWEST

WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.

.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING CLOUDY.

HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOW...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. TOTAL SNOW

ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. SOUTHEAST

WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT.

.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING. HIGHS IN

THE LOWER 30S. WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

CHANCE OF SNOW 50 PERCENT.

Welcome to me mentioning this and us talking about this... oh around 6-7 PM or so

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