Quasievil Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Yes sir, Northern Plains. I just like to track weather everywhere. I actually think this year you feel sorry for us. Great insights though...love reading your posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 per DT on facebook THIS image is the euro ENSEMBLE mean ( an average or eman of 51 european Model averaged out). What is Important here is that the euro ensemble PRECIP... not shown-- is as wet as the operational run -- ACTUALLY it is even wetter! the euro mean show a 40+ hour long event... which would be stunning and the way this Low develops would be a major snow for much of NC much of VA MD DE eastern PA NJ... etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 per DT on facebook THIS image is the euro ENSEMBLE mean ( an average or eman of 51 european Model averaged out). What is Important here is that the euro ensemble PRECIP... not shown-- is as wet as the operational run -- ACTUALLY it is even wetter! the euro mean show a 40+ hour long event... which would be stunning and the way this Low develops would be a major snow for much of NC much of VA MD DE eastern PA NJ... etc Just what we need...DT on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 per DT on facebook THIS image is the euro ENSEMBLE mean ( an average or eman of 51 european Model averaged out). What is Important here is that the euro ensemble PRECIP... not shown-- is as wet as the operational run -- ACTUALLY it is even wetter! the euro mean show a 40+ hour long event... which would be stunning and the way this Low develops would be a major snow for much of NC much of VA MD DE eastern PA NJ... etc And on that post my comment is the first one there: "It sure is weather pron but I can't buy anything the euro says right now." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 kiss of death.... per DT on facebook THIS image is the euro ENSEMBLE mean ( an average or eman of 51 european Model averaged out). What is Important here is that the euro ensemble PRECIP... not shown-- is as wet as the operational run -- ACTUALLY it is even wetter! the euro mean show a 40+ hour long event... which would be stunning and the way this Low develops would be a major snow for much of NC much of VA MD DE eastern PA NJ... etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 It feels good to have Ian and psuhoffman on our side for this one. Those two are usually right when it isn't going to snow. im not sure if im your side or not, so.. meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I actually think this year you feel sorry for us. Great insights though...love reading your posts. Well I hope you guys get a good storm soon. All we have to track here is -25 degree temps. Already down to -27 in northern MN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 im not sure if im your side or not, so.. meh. My side is pretty bearish, so maybe that is good news for the weenies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 fwiw, new SREF is kinda' goofy at 87 hrs http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/sref/21/images/sref_50h_087s.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 My side is pretty bearish, so maybe that is good news for the weenies? at this pt i'd gladly take the gfs solution. it's been active at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Well I hope you guys get a good storm soon. All we have to track here is -25 degree temps. Already down to -27 in northern MN I've never felt air that cold. One of these winters, I'll have to take a trip up your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 fwiw, new SREF is kinda' goofy at 87 hrs http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/sref/21/images/sref_50h_087s.gif That looks decent to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 That looks decent to me. seems to me that the energy coming south took a hard right and may be stuck in the SW for an unknown period of time or maybe I'm being unreasonable and just trying to look for things to go wrong...silly me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 fwiw, new SREF is kinda' goofy at 87 hrs http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/sref/21/images/sref_50h_087s.gif Looks like it's trying to hold some energy back.... But it's not in it's really not too useful yet on how the storm plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Looks like it's trying to hold some energy back.... But it's not in it's really not too useful yet on how the storm plays out. I really find the SREFs useful 6 hours after a storm has occurred. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Blah that came out wrong... Ment to say it's a bit too early to use the SERF right now. Storm is a bit out of it's range. *posting via a phone sucks* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 So far, NAM is NOT holding back energy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Tell me what i am supposed to be seeing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 So far, NAM is NOT holding back energy 84 hours out is pretty early to tell what that vort is going to do ultimately. i think it is a little less 'baggy' on the sw side which may indicate it's not going to drop as much as earlier runs of the gfs were. but the nam at 84 is not an optimal look at the expected 500 features imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Tell me what i am supposed to be seeing here. Nothing, All I can say is that strong PVA over lake huron near the center of a stregnthening high is likely wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 So funny (Actually sad for snow lovers in DC AREA) that storms last year that started south came north. We would claim SE bias and by storm time be in the action. This year, the SE bias is not SE enough for most storms and they do not trend north! Such a pain! The northern stream has trended north, and the southern stream has not because it has tended to just get squashed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 im not sure if im your side or not, so.. meh. for you that is on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 for you that is on board I haven't read this thread at all, but I'm assuming you're on your usual side...something along the lines of massive cyclogenesis (j/k). If so, I think I'm in the same boat as you. It's a scary place to be. Man, the 0Z NAM sure does look like it's getting ready for one hell of a wallop in its next 48hr... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I haven't read this thread at all, but I'm assuming you're on your usual side...something along the lines of massive cyclogenesis (j/k). If so, I think I'm in the same boat as you. It's a scary place to be. Man, the 0Z NAM sure does look like it's getting ready for one hell of a wallop in its next 48hr... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I haven't read this thread at all, but I'm assuming you're on your usual side...something along the lines of massive cyclogenesis (j/k). If so, I think I'm in the same boat as you. It's a scary place to be. Man, the 0Z NAM sure does look like it's getting ready for one hell of a wallop in its next 48hr... Actually I am going positive on this one. Perhaps not because I truly thought this setup was amazing, but just it was better then all the super sh*tty ones lately. At least we have a vort that is digging enough that if things do come together right we have a chance. I am tired of these storms with H5 tracks 100 miles north of us. That game has lost its fun quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I haven't read this thread at all, but I'm assuming you're on your usual side...something along the lines of massive cyclogenesis (j/k). If so, I think I'm in the same boat as you. It's a scary place to be. Man, the 0Z NAM sure does look like it's getting ready for one hell of a wallop in its next 48hr... Whoa. I thought it looked good too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 gfs not digging H5 so far west this run so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 GFS is a big flip flop through 78 and looks Euro'ish with the second wave dropping in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Whoa. I thought it looked good too. 18z DGEX had a pretty good storm but not until 180, it focused on the second wave. I am not really sure which vort is going to be the one to amplify, models keep keying on different ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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