psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 What does this mean, I'm trying to learn Thank you there is usually a really nice band that sets up near the nw edge of the CCB area. Models often times do not pick up on it, RGEM seems to be getting it better then the NAM. NAM seems to focus totally on the band along 95 that is being driven by extreme frontal forcing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I'm not 100% sure this will matter with traffic. The Gov't (Fed and local) are probably going to start sending people home around 12-2pm so no matter when the snow starts traffic will be a nightmare. i know they want to close less after last yr but it seems they should let out early. putting people right into the middle of potential 1-3"/hr rates is a nightmare waiting to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoCoSnowBo Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Hey, I was talking to Justin Berk from WMAR, and he said that the NAM had connective feedback issues. Is that true, is it actually overdoing it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Hey, I was talking to Justin Berk from WMAR, and he said that the NAM had connective feedback issues. Is that true, is it actually overdoing it? maybe not overdoing but notice how it cut back extremely along the northern edges of the precip shield while focusing more on the middle...this might be error. NAM tends to overdo it along the max precip area and underdo it along the edges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I think temps are the LWX main issue... If you look at the 12Z NAM, 2M temps stay a couple of degrees above freezing until around nightfall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 looks like a tiny little dc bullseye on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 there is usually a really nice band that sets up near the nw edge of the CCB area. Models often times do not pick up on it, RGEM seems to be getting it better then the NAM. NAM seems to focus totally on the band along 95 that is being driven by extreme frontal forcing. Thanks for explaining that, Hoff. In that sense, would it be two bands setting up due to different atmospheric conditions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowpocalypse Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I made sure to stock up on Ketel One. Nice.Ive got a beer cellar full of imperial russian stouts,ipa's, barley wines etc..Normally there off limits but I may have to bust out a Stone Imperial Russian Stout tonight or sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Damn, LWX updated. Models are still in a disagreement and they will hold off on any upgrades until the evening update. Where did they say that? I still have the 930 AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I95 special http://www.nco.ncep....fs_pcp_012m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 FWIW, the RUC wants to keep 850s above 0C until about 22z. That would mean 1-2hrs of -RA as the the ULL precip max reaches us. 12z GFS has the 850 0C line right along I-95 at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 looks like a tiny little dc bullseye on the gfs RGEM v. NAM/GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joeride Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 there is usually a really nice band that sets up near the nw edge of the CCB area. Models often times do not pick up on it, RGEM seems to be getting it better then the NAM. NAM seems to focus totally on the band along 95 that is being driven by extreme frontal forcing. This happened last year with the blizzards, right? Where it seems like it is snowing in one band and doesn't move for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 RGEM v. NAM/GFS? at this range you'd be better off only looking at the nam and gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Where did they say that? I still have the 930 AFD Yeah... I didn't see that anywhere either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 FWIW, the RUC wants to keep 850s above 0C until about 22z. That would mean 1-2hrs of -RA as the the ULL precip max reaches us. 12z GFS has the 850 0C line right along I-95 at 18z. for BWI I find the RUC to be usually horrendous, and at best hit or miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 for BWI I find the RUC to be usually horrendous, and at best hit or miss Hard not to worry about temps... sorry... but I'm worried about them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Damn, LWX updated. Models are still in a disagreement and they will hold off on any upgrades until the evening update. Where did they say that? I still have the 930 AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 for BWI I find the RUC to be usually horrendous, and at best hit or miss Good to know. I honestly never used when I was actually putting out forecasts for our area, but thought I'd throw it out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 FWIW, the RUC wants to keep 850s above 0C until about 22z. That would mean 1-2hrs of -RA as the the ULL precip max reaches us. 12z GFS has the 850 0C line right along I-95 at 18z. Ruc showed the same thing for the Feb 5 2010 blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 i find the ruc to be horrendous in general Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 RGEM has the precip distribution more like I envisioned it with the deform max riding up just east of the blue ridge then across northern MD, and the frontal forcing band along 95 I'm more excited about seeing the snow rates than the total amount with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I95 special http://www.nco.ncep....fs_pcp_012m.gif And another .1 from about Loudoun to Fairfax to the NE at 18 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_p06_018l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 TOTAL PRECIP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 FWIW, the RUC wants to keep 850s above 0C until about 22z. That would mean 1-2hrs of -RA as the the ULL precip max reaches us. 12z GFS has the 850 0C line right along I-95 at 18z. The RUC is awful on temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Very nice agreement between the GFS and the NAM re: total storm precip amounts. GFS shows 1"+ from DC-Annapolis and straight eastward toward Dover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Very nice h5/h7/h85 low placement for us at 12 hrs http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_012m.gif http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_700_012m.gif http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_850_012m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Hard not to worry about temps... sorry... but I'm worried about them. I really wouldn't worry about them. It's 33 right now at both the NA and BWI. The majoirty of whatever falls will fall at night. We already have some snowcover which will make it all the easier to stick. All the major models crash the 850's east of us when the real heavy stuff hits. Temps won't stay at 33-34 with the kind of dynamics to bring down the cold air. The NWS has already busted because AA county was suppose to see some rain mixed with snow at times with little or no accumulations and there's mulitiple reports of over an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Very nice agreement between the GFS and the NAM re: total storm precip amounts. GFS shows 1"+ from DC-Annapolis and straight eastward toward Dover. What are the temps east of 95? We should be more interested in that ... precip will be there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Good to know. I honestly never used when I was actually putting out forecasts for our area, but thought I'd throw it out there. Here's 12Z NAM MOS for my house in 3 hour intervals looks like there's a spike until precip comes in and temps crash the bulk of the precip looks to fall after entire column supports snow NAM 12 km# Latitude: 39.21 Longitude: -76.68 & DATA INITIAL TIME: 26 JAN 2011 12Z& CALCULATION STARTED AT: 26 JAN 2011 12Z& HOURS OF CALCULATION: 48 & FIELD MSL PRESSURE TEMPERATURE DEW POINT TEMPERATURE THICKNESS HEIGHT PRECIPITATION LEVEL 2M 2M 850 MB 500 MB 500 MB UNITS HPA DEGC DEGC DEGC DM DM MM HR + 0. 1014.8 0.2 -0.0 -2.3 543.8 555.6 2.60 + 3. 1010.1 0.5 -0.0 -2.3 543.8 551.8 1.63 + 6. 1006.8 2.0 1.1 0.4 545.2 550.7 0.00 + 9. 1003.7 1.3 0.7 -0.3 542.8 545.7 0.98 + 12. 1004.8 0.5 0.2 -3.5 537.6 541.4 17.01 + 15. 1005.5 0.2 -0.3 -3.1 535.3 539.8 14.52 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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