OSUmetstud Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 okx hugging the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 okx hugging the NAM? more like humping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 okx hugging the NAM? Because that's normally a good idea??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Big Earnie McCracken Vs Roy Munson who you got I hear Showdown playing in the backround. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 okx hugging the NAM? To the east they are...but over NYC it looks like they are hedging a little more cautious. I think the NAM gave NYC over a foot of snow and they are going 9" there...but they went bonkers over LI and CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Uptons new snow map for those of us in Southern CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Ok, I'll have it ready by 00z Thursday. Be prepared to be blown away I'm always prepared for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SC48 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The reason why most of our local mets are going with the Globals is because they feel the bias of the Nam at this time is too tucked in for such a progressive flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Because that's normally a good idea??? It's amazing how we justify which model we'll favor in a given situation. If the Euro was showing the blizzard of 1978 right now and the NAM was todays Euro not one peep would be made. Because it's reversed, there must be something the Euro missed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 To the east they are...but over NYC it looks like they are hedging a little more cautious. I think the NAM gave NYC over a foot of snow and they are going 9" there...but they went bonkers over LI and CT. Bodes well for the Taunton forecast area given the frequent coordination between those two stations in events like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 SREFS just SE of ACK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 SREFs look similar to 09z, stronger with slp and a little more juicy to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 SREF tracks it over ACK...probably close to final outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 To the east they are...but over NYC it looks like they are hedging a little more cautious. I think the NAM gave NYC over a foot of snow and they are going 9" there...but they went bonkers over LI and CT. That because they're feeling the banding there? It looked like the blended the juicy parts of the NAM, took it down a slight bit, and added the Euro reduction just west of me onward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 SREF same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Well the 15z SREF was a slight shift back to the west in terms of the 1'' QPF contour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Thanks. Relatively quick mover, should keep those expecting 20" in check with reality. don't underestimate snow rates from mesoscale banding. All it takes is a few hours of 3-4"/hr rates and you've already picked up over 12". Add several more hours of 1"/hr rates and 20" is easily within grasp. It may not be as widespread as some are expecting...but there will be a decent number of reports that approach 20" I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 SREFs look similar to 09z, stronger with slp and a little more juicy to the west. It also has a bit more in the way of QPF spread out towards eastern sections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 15z SREF's look almost identical to the 09z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 What are your thoughts on this storm for your region ORH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It's amazing how we justify which model we'll favor in a given situation. If the Euro was showing the blizzard of 1978 right now and the NAM was todays Euro not one peep would be made. Because it's reversed, there must be something the Euro missed. +1000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 maybe I don't follow the SREF closely enough typically, but it seems to me this has been one of the most consistent performances of it in a while (and consistent relative to other models) ... mets, are they typically this strong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Over Ack, SE of Ack, Spread to W, Spread to the E.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 What are your thoughts on this storm for your region ORH? I'm thinking about an 8 hour snowbomb with light snows on each side...a slightly longer duration version of 12/9/05. So instead of max snowfalls in the 16" range, we will probably see a few spots over 20". I like a track near or just inside ACK. (Nantucket) But it could perhaps wind up even closer if this goes nuts enough. I remember just how much of a nowcast event 12/9/05 was...things were changing so quickly in that. . I ended up with a pretty good forecast heding toward the mesoscale models in that, but in the end, it still wasnt quite bullish enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 15z SREF's look almost identical to the 09z. Yeah looks very similar. There is less spread, so it seems like a track near ACK is probably ground zero..or very close to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 SREFS just SE of ACK Looks to me like it's SE maybe 10 miles. It's cold, it's wet, it's fun. The NAM merry-go-round is starting. Could be anything from a Lakes cutter to Greenland hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Off we roll with the 18z NAM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 don't underestimate snow rates from mesoscale banding. All it takes is a few hours of 3-4"/hr rates and you've already picked up over 12". Add several more hours of 1"/hr rates and 20" is easily within grasp. It may not be as widespread as some are expecting...but there will be a decent number of reports that approach 20" I think. Kinda of like saying "all it takes to win Powerball". lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Come on. Look at the SLP initialized on the Euro. It's clear it IS missing something. People are so biased to the EURO or GFS like it can do no wrong. And, I know you can't stand the NAM, but you have to look in to it's strengths. It's amazing how we justify which model we'll favor in a given situation. If the Euro was showing the blizzard of 1978 right now and the NAM was todays Euro not one peep would be made. Because it's reversed, there must be something the Euro missed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 SREF same. actually...down here in CT...it's a pretty significant shift back west with the 1" contour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.