Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

January Obs Thread III


strongwxnc

Recommended Posts

Can't really argue much with that map. I'm on the right edge of the 8 to 10 near athens which is close enough.

Of course what is not shown on that map is ice accretion. I'll be honest, I'm happily surprised at how much I got...and most of it was from the non stop, 12 plus hours of freezing drizzle/mist. I'm not great at measuring accretion but there is probably 0.20 out there I would think. The cedars are all drooping and even the oaks are drooping. Will take some pics of them later. Even now there is still a light mist, though not nearly as heavy.

This snow pack now is something else..absolutely frozen solid. Like I said last night, You walk on it and cracks go in all directions but it's even harder of course after nighttime. It's going to be really interesting watching how fast all this stuff melts. Since this isn't your usual unprotected snow on top of warm ground here and with more cold air waiting in the wings.

Beautiful sight. Trying to soak it all in to my memory because I likely won't see anything like this again for a very long time.

Yeah we're still getting a fine mist here, roads are nasty as expected. There's a solid inch of ice on my driveway in my tire tracks, with 3" or so of snow above that (which does help in traction). The melting we get today will only serve to make roads even icier in the morning...ugh. We might not have seen the worst road conditions yet.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 600
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Okay just got in from walking around and all I can say is it is EPIC outside.... I was gone the winter of 2005 so I missed out on that ice in CLT but everything and I mean EVERYTHING right now is covered in a at least .25 of ice right now. Roads are especially bad I walked to the main road from my house and it is still snow covered with lots of ice on top. You can tell where the snowplow came through and scraped just what was lose on top.

Like foothills said around 1-2pm today when we get right up to 32-33 roads (especially secondary roads) will be almost unpassable. Take care out there everyone. It has been a long time since they have been this bad and even my neighbor from Buffalo said he tried to get to work and couldn't.

Yep they just canceled work... evidentially some people tried to come in and had issues...well duh.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

we may have started the new PDO NAO cycle last year, or so. If so, we're heading back to a period similar to late 1950s-early 1970s' Winters, and this will be much more common.

One has to wonder what's going on at this point. You simply don't go so many years without a major 4 plus inch snow then turn around and get 4 within a single year's time without something being different I would think. But I'm hardwired to believe, via bitter experience, that you won't see a storm like this again for many many years. I've been told I don't know how many times via my parents the 60s through early 80s were much snowier and icier than the last 20 years or so and it was often frustrating to hear. My father acted like it was the ice age..although he has a tendency to over exaggerate at times lol

I certainly think something has changed. I mean to have this type of cold and snow during a strong la nina is even crazier when you think about it. I wonder if it all has to do with the very quiet period we had with the sun. I don't know what the sun was like back in those days but it's somewhat interesting that all this came during and immediately after one of the quietest periods on record with respect to sun spots.

If we have finally turned the corner and have entered another active period, you sure as hell won't see me complaining lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We had an additional .33" of freezing rain/sleet from 6:45 am yesterday until 6:45 am today. Trees have a nice glaze on them now. We were on the edge of the 8" circle, I had 7.5"

Webcam here, moved it back to the front of the house

For some reason I can't pull up your webcam.

1111am EDIT:

Figured it out. Needed to install apple Quicktime for it to work. When using Firefox it does not let you know that you need install it to view the stream.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

One has to wonder what's going on at this point. You simply don't go so many years without a major 4 plus inch snow then turn around and get 4 within a single year's time without something being different I would think. But I'm hardwired to believe, via bitter experience, that you won't see a storm like this again for many many years. I've been told I don't know how many times via my parents the 60s through early 80s were much snowier and icier than the last 20 years or so and it was often frustrating to hear. My father acted like it was the ice age..although he has a tendency to over exaggerate at times lol

I certainly think something has changed. I mean to have this type of cold and snow during a strong la nina is even crazier when you think about it. I wonder if it all has to do with the very quiet period we had with the sun. I don't know what the sun was like back in those days but it's somewhat interesting that all this came during and immediately after one of the quietest periods on record with respect to sun spots.

If we have finally turned the corner and have entered another active period, you sure as hell won't see me complaining lol

If you believe in the cycles of weather then why not? Something is clearly going on here though and it's hard to believe we just fall out of it after a week.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

LOL Lookout!

But yes I of course as you know were forecasting 5-10 across NW GA and honestly I am still looking out the window in shock! Mr. Bob I think was telling me Sunday on here about this was a common thing back in the 80s of looking at a storm 4-5 days out and being able to see it printing out large amounts and just going with that forecast because it just happens. Man it has been nice the past few weeks to see two BIG storms coming well in advance forecast it and just watch it happen. Very nice! And yes FFC I think did a great job with that map as most people in my viewing area(NW GA counties) are all basically reporting 8-10 inch amounts. I see no possible way for the kids to head back to school this week with the Arctic blast moving in tonight..Highs tomorrow and Thursday around here are going to be in the mid 20s with single digit lows WOW it will be below freezing till the weekend basically!

On another weather note. Looks like the deeper moisture is coming in now from Bama right at the border and the Freezing Drizzle is switching over now to snow showers. I expect this trend to continue late morning and this afternoon across North GA.:snowman:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah we're still getting a fine mist here, roads are nasty as expected. There's a solid inch of ice on my driveway in my tire tracks, with 3" or so of snow above that (which does help in traction). The melting we get today will only serve to make roads even icier in the morning...ugh. We might not have seen the worst road conditions yet.

Absolutely unbelievaable storm.....I ended up right in the middle of the little 8 to 10 inch blob on FFCs snow map in NE Gwinnett County. I actually made it in to work this morning and I don't think I ever remember the roads being this much of a mess......maybe during '93 or snowjam '82, but I was really young then and remeber more due to the stories. This city is at a total standstill. I crossed I-85 this morning near Hamilton Mill Rd. and saw 1 single car on the interstate!!!!! It was a crazy sight to be sure. I don't think I've ever seen such a mess. Doesn't look like it's going anywhere today either.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If you believe in the cycles of weather then why not? Something is clearly going on here though and it's hard to believe we just fall out of it after a week.

A couple of months ago I was looking hard at the records at GSP and trying to figure out the cycles. I'm no expert on indices or long range forecasting but I did notice the patterns going back to the late 1800's showed the cycles nicely. The late 50's through the early 80's, about a 30 year stretch, and another period there around 30 years earlier so there's probably something to that. So its about time we've switched probably, and thats probably occurring, I don't know though. If you look at last Winter and this Winter so far, its been a heck of a lot more active than the previous 10 years , and really previous 20 or more years. I remember barbequing at my neighbors in Dec, Jan and Feb a couple Winters ago, many times actually for a few of the last Winters, thinking "this is Winter"? We've been through some extremely warm and dry Winters here, before last Winter hit. Starting last Winter, it felt much more "normal" here. We may be heading back to a good, active pattern the next few years, with Gulf lows, and colder air overall. I still think this storm was just so reminiscent of the 80's storms, with a stip of snow and ice from northeast Texas, to the Carolinas (except eastern/central NC where the high pressure and other factors precluded a hit). I bet there's more to come, even if we get a warm up going, the NAO is stubborn and repetitive now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It is awesome. I've probably got .10" of ice. If the snow survives on the roads up here today then I bet schools will be closed the rest of the week as 20's for highs look likely up here Wed and Thursday. Expecting single digit lows to follow in that time also. Awesome!

Seeing you this happy gives me a warm and fuzzy feeling inside :lmao:

I can't help but think back to last year when you had that half inch or so last forever. We even talked about wishing there was more to see how long it would last. So happy we finally get that chance. Plus, it happened at just about the best time with respect to the sun angle. From the amounts of snow, to the sheet of ice on top to protect it, to the cold ground temps, to the sun angle, and to the incoming cold airmass...you really can't ask for any better ingredients to keep the snow on the ground for a while.

Yeah we're still getting a fine mist here, roads are nasty as expected. There's a solid inch of ice on my driveway in my tire tracks, with 3" or so of snow above that (which does help in traction). The melting we get today will only serve to make roads even icier in the morning...ugh. We might not have seen the worst road conditions yet.

I walked up to my road earlier and I couldn't hardly walk on it without slipping so needless to say travel is not advised lol.

Totally agree about the road conditions. You know often times the snow melts off the roads here really quick. In fact, it's extremely rare for travel to be bad for more than a day or so around here, even if there is a lot of snow and ice.

For example, In the last 3 snowstorms, travel here was never a really big issue for several reasons that are different this time. The snow, although it accumulated on the roads here, melted soon there after thanks in part to it falling mostly in the daytime. And of course the ground was warmer to boot. The march snow of course we had a high sun angle which quickly ate it away, and we didn't have really cold weather after. This time though, there is a thin sheet of ice on the road surface itself where no one drove and a thicker sheet from where they did. Then you have the snow on top of it, then you have another layer of ice from the freezing rain/drizzle, and finally an incoming really cold airmass. Doesn't get much worse than that.

There will be some melting today and tomorrow for sure though but the amounts and the layers of ice will make that a bad thing with the incoming cold weather. It will be interesting to see where things stand by tomorrow night with respect to how much is on them because starting tomorrow night we really start to drop as far as low temps go. So the road temps are going to start off really cold thursday and friday and even with full sun should probably be slow to rise if there is a substantial layer of ice on them. So the very process of it melting some today and tomorrow is actually going to make it worse for driving thursday and friday.

We'll see though..it does take a lot for the roads to stay truly bad for any length of time. It might not be as bad as we think. But the layer of freezing rain/drizzle on top of everything makes this situation different than most imo.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Finally made it back home...Asheville got lucky that we actually never changed over from snow... we had a few instances where the flakes were very fine, like tiny ice pellets, but we never really saw the changeover. The NAM really did a great job showing no warm nose above freezing in this area. Thus, driving while still very difficult and noy recommended, but its not as icy and mainly snowy. My drive from campus (UNCA) to my house on the NW side of town was not that bad until the very end where I slid off the road as I was trying to turn. A bunch of friendly locals came to my rescue though scooter.gif.

We have about 6-6.5" of snow on the ground at my house... which is actually a lot higher than the 4-4.5" we had on the NE side of Buncombe county.

Temp: 31.5 degrees

Humidity: 89%

Looks like northwest flow will start cranking tomorrow early morning... school might be out for a while considering the roads currently.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Seeing you this happy gives me a warm and fuzzy feeling inside :lmao:

I can't help but think back to last year when you had that half inch or so last forever. We even talked about wishing there was more to see how long it would last. So happy we finally get that chance. Plus, it happened at just about the best time with respect to the sun angle. From the amounts of snow, to the sheet of ice on top to protect it, to the cold ground temps, to the sun angle, and to the incoming cold airmass...you really can't ask for any better ingredients to keep the snow on the ground for a while.

LOL. To be honest i was pissed off the first half of the day yesterday because this thing underperformed big time IMBY from what was progged to happen. .31" liquid snow QPF.:thumbsdown:

I'm over it now for the most part. Gonna be cool to see how long it lasts. I bet there will still be good cover on Saturday to Sunday.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hey Phil, I go to UNCA as well and have to travel up Old Fort mountain to school. How is it looking as far as having classes tomorrow? Even down here the roads are down right nasty. Thanks in advance for the info!

I'm thinking no... secondary roads are really bad. There is going to have to be some serious melting today to have classes tomorrow and I just don't think that will happen. The fact that its about to start snowing again tonight... even lightly, will likely be the nail in the coffin. I've seen UNCA close on days where there were better road conditions.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm thinking no... secondary roads are really bad. There is going to have to be some serious melting today to have classes tomorrow and I just don't think that will happen. The fact that its about to start snowing again tonight... even lightly, will likely be the nail in the coffin. I've seen UNCA close on days where there were better road conditions.

Thanks so much for that info. I was just curious if them closing the prior 2 days would have any implication on tomorrow. We shall see though. Thanks again!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

we may have started the new PDO NAO cycle last year, or so. If so, we're heading back to a period similar to late 1950s-early 1970s' Winters, and this will be much more common.

Would you elaborate a little more on that about the differences?? New weenie here with a great desire to learn more.

:weight_lift: Nothing but ice getting out of the hood here (9:35 AM today) No slush @29ºF

post-4370-0-10064500-1294762040.jpg

post-4370-0-34067700-1294762093.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Thanks so much for that info. I was just curious if them closing the prior 2 days would have any implication on tomorrow. We shall see though. Thanks again!

Oh it does... but I believe they were rather keep the students safe than venturing out on these road conditions currently. They cancelled classes during exams last semester and I think that was a much more difficult decision than the current one they have to make for tomorrow. Combine the current conditions with this bullish discussion from GSP, and you have to wonder if we will have classes on Thursday as well!

AS FOR THE LARGER SCALE PICTURE...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURESYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE DAKOTAS THIS MORNING TO THE UPPER OHVALLEY TONIGHT. A JET STREAK ROUNDING THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE ARENEWED BURST OF UPPER DIVERGENCE TONIGHT ALONG THE SRNAPPALACHIANS. IN ADDITION...DPVA FROM CHANNELED VORTICITY WILL REACHTHE WRN MTNS THIS EVENING AND SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE PIEDMONT.FORCING WILL ALSO IMPROVE AT LOWER LEVELS IN THE WRN MTNS...WITH 850MB WINDS TURNING WESTERLY BY 00Z AND THEN STRENGTHENING FROM THE NWALONG WITH UPSLOPE MOISTURE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDYCONDITIONS DEVELOPING ALONG WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IN WRN MTNLOCATIONS. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD SPILL OUT ACROSS THE INTERSTATE40 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT AS WELL. A NEW WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BEGININ THE TONIGHT PERIOD FOR NW FLOW SNOW ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONSOF THE WRN NC MTNS.&&.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...AS OF 216 AM TUESDAY...THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BETHE PERSISTENT COLD WEATHER AND A CONTINUING NORTHWEST FLOW SNOWEVENT. THE EVENT SHOULD REACH ITS NADIR DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ASWE/VE SEEN SEVERAL TIMES THIS YEAR...THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS WILLBE IN PLACE FOR A HIGH END/HEAVY ACCUMULATING EVENT. IN ADDITION TOSYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT FROM STRONG MID-LEVEL VORT MAX...TEMPS IN THEMOIST LAYER WILL BE EXTREMELY COLD...AS LOW AS -17 C. THIS WILLPROMOTE GOOD DENDRITIC ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH AND VERY HIGH SNOW:LIQUIDRATIOS. THERE IS ALSO STRONG NW FLOW (GENERALLY AROUND 40 KT) WITH AGOOD GREAT LAKES CONNECTION. SEVERAL SIMILAR EVENTS THIS SEASON HAVEPRODUCED SNOWFALL OF A FOOT OR MORE PER 24 HOURS IN THE HIGHELEVATIONS ALONG THE TENN BORDER...AND WE SEE NO REASON WHY THISEVENT WILL BE ANY DIFFERENT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL ALSO BEPOSSIBLE WELL EAST OF THE USUAL NW FLOW AREAS DURING THE DAYTHURSDAY.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...