Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 This should make our northern neighbors feel better. I like it too... Are the SREF's considered useful at this range? I don't follow them much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 This should make our northern neighbors feel better. I like it too... The 78hr panel is the one that grabs me by the shoulders and shakes me violently, but yeah, makes me feel good looking at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Are the SREF's considered useful at this range? I don't follow them much. As a signal that this will be a snowy system widespread I think it's a viable signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Donny Baseball to the rescue quote name='donsutherland1' timestamp='1294599365' post='254005'] Early afternoon thoughts... 1) The models have come into much better agreement on the upcoming East Coast event. One still wonders whether the NAM from western outlier to most extreme solution is still evolving more closely toward the Euro. Right now, my early thinking is that DCA/BWI have a good chance of seeing 2" or more snow and a possibility of 4" or more; Philadelphia will likely see 4" or more and has a reasonable chance of seeing 6" or more. NYC has a good chance of seeing 6" or more and could pick up 8" or more. Boston will likely pick up 8" or more. Northern NJ into southern New England has a chance to receive a foot of snow. I'll have my first estimated accumulations this evening. Before then, Memphis (2"-4") and Atlanta (3"-6") should pick up appreciable snows. 2) Seattle still appears to be in line for a moderate or significant snowfall later this week. 3) The last 7-10 days of the month will likely witness milder conditons in the East. But the the pattern does not appear to be evolving toward a full-fledged blowtorch. 4) The moderation during the last 7-10 days of the month probably will not mark an end to winter in the East or Pacific Northwest, as I expect that a colder pattern could begin to evolve beginning possibly as soon as the first week in February with the EPO trending negative again.. In any case my guess is that the cold anomalies accumulated over December and January will likely assure that Winter 2010-11 would wind up colder than normal in a large part of the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 NAM is coming in a little flatter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Gonna be a fun storm for everyone coming up this week. Dryslot will be happy as will Dendrite, Kevin, Messenger, Ray, Tip, GC duo, everyone including me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 NAM is coming in a little flatter. 18Z. I like the SREFs signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Donny Baseball to the rescue quote name='donsutherland1' timestamp='1294599365' post='254005'] Early afternoon thoughts... 1) The models have come into much better agreement on the upcoming East Coast event. One still wonders whether the NAM from western outlier to most extreme solution is still evolving more closely toward the Euro. Right now, my early thinking is that DCA/BWI have a good chance of seeing 2" or more snow and a possibility of 4" or more; Philadelphia will likely see 4" or more and has a reasonable chance of seeing 6" or more. NYC has a good chance of seeing 6" or more and could pick up 8" or more. Boston will likely pick up 8" or more. Northern NJ into southern New England has a chance to receive a foot of snow. I'll have my first estimated accumulations this evening. Before then, Memphis (2"-4") and Atlanta (3"-6") should pick up appreciable snows. 2) Seattle still appears to be in line for a moderate or significant snowfall later this week. 3) The last 7-10 days of the month will likely witness milder conditons in the East. But the the pattern does not appear to be evolving toward a full-fledged blowtorch. 4) The moderation during the last 7-10 days of the month probably will not mark an end to winter in the East or Pacific Northwest, as I expect that a colder pattern could begin to evolve beginning possibly as soon as the first week in February with the EPO trending negative again.. In any case my guess is that the cold anomalies accumulated over December and January will likely assure that Winter 2010-11 would wind up colder than normal in a large part of the East. The ec ensembles have a day or so of warmth as well...Maybe 2 days, but then perhaps an overrunning pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 yeah, out to 48, certainly less amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 That would be something The NAM is going to hold serve, isn't it? Slight variation downward in the amount of leading short wave ridging, which might mean a subtle E click with things .. .but it is well within nuance at this time lead so not really worth mentioning actually. Other differences do not appear significant enough to alter the outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 NAM 54 at H5 is identical to the Euro at 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Much further east w/ the secondary at 54. Dislike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Gonna be a fun storm for everyone coming up this week. Dryslot will be happy as will Dendrite, Kevin, Messenger, Ray, Tip, GC duo, everyone including me. I'll be happy even getting near warning criteria. I'm not a jackpot snob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 yeah, out to 48, certainly less amped I disagree. That language tends to over-emphasize what are fairly minor differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I disagree. That language tends to over-emphasize what are fairly minor differences. Agree. Looking at the surface alone does not tell the story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I disagree. That language tends to over-emphasize what are fairly minor differences. misunderstanding...sry, just that it is less amped relative to 12z (regardless of the degree) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I disagree. That language tends to over-emphasize what are fairly minor differences. I like how the H5 low on all models develops and slides to the east. That's classic. We will see models probably waver back and forth by 50 miles or so in the next 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 NAM has slowed things down...similar to Euro and it will ultimately produce a better system. You'll all see in a few minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 misunderstanding...sry, just that it is less amped relative to 12z (regardless of the degree) Eh, it still minutia to mention given to how little these difference are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Eh, it still minutia to mention given to how little these difference are. heights at 500mb are lower, no?...maybe i'm just reading this wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Way SE with the LP placement/track. Not much difference at H5 either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 This should make our northern neighbors feel better. I like it too... When I think Nor'easter this SREF is the picture in my head. Changeover S/E of Bos, Mixing up and down the coast. Jackpot N&W of 495 Maybe just selective memory but remember lots of these growing up and not many these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 heights at 500mb are lower, no?...maybe i'm just reading this wrong... The closed H5 low then bowling out under us is pretty classic but NAM has shifted well east with the surface feature at least through 66 hours. 66 hour mslp is 39/70 but starting to wrap up. Kind of stingy on qpf and not in line with SREF signal so I wouldn't worry too much about this off hour run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 heights at 500mb are lower, no?...maybe i'm just reading this wrong... Maybe by a DM or two... hard to say because it could have a smaller geopotantial space in the horizontal, but the core could be steeper in the vertical ...532 say, so not enough evidence there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I think this synoptic setup by the NAM IS an example of it being way out of its range. Or maybe it was producing the feedback signal tugging the low too close and wrapped up at 12z? Either way, H5 looks absolutely great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I know it might not mean much..but wow at the SREF. 40% chance of 8+ for my area of Day 3...seems like a pretty impressive signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Wow, quite a bit SE from before ... is it just outside of the BM?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Much further east w/ the secondary at 54. Dislike. Note the difference in placement of the vorticity on the SE side. Way SE with the LP placement/track. Not much difference at H5 either. It's actually quite a bit different. Take a look at the animation I posted. It just did the same thing this run. Instead of wrapping the vorticity up around the approaching 500mb low, it gets out east. It happened 3 times in the last 3 days. The closed H5 low then bowling out under us is pretty classic but NAM has shifted well east with the surface feature at least through 66 hours. 66 hour mslp is 39/70 but starting to wrap up. Kind of stingy on qpf and not in line with SREF signal so I wouldn't worry too much about this off hour run. The SREF's have been behind the trends for days. This is exactly what I just highlighted in the animation and was a glaring NAM/RGEM error with this last system. In the end it was even an "error" with the globals because it snuck further east than forecast by them too. I'm not saying it's right, but look at the vorticity on the leading edge..it's going more easterly than just 6 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 H5 Low, H7 Low, and 850 Low all starting to catch up to one another at 66...catch and occlude near CHH please and thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SC48 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 If it ends up at the BM, then Boston, Providence, and Worcester will be hit hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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