weathafella Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Euro through 60 looks quite wonderful to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 weenies watching nyc/phil threat with euro updates saying it's a tad east. at hr 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 weenies watching nyc/phil threat with euro updates saying it's a tad east. at hr 54 I don't see it at 60...if anything dead on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 WTF is JB talking about?? Anyone else agree? HERE COMES THE THAW, AND ITS MAD IT DIDNT HOLD SOONER. Heh snow geese and lovers of winters worst.. enjoy the next 7-11 days because after the worse, comes one heck of reverse. The ups and downs of this month are really peverse, but I will hold my tongue and not curse. JB looks like Jack Jeebs from "Men In Black" - scene in the pawn shop where the characters head gets blowed off, only to come back like an inflating balloon - to which he IS ironically enough, a bloated balloon. The guy trumpeted an early end to winter back when, and he is seedy in trying to surface these spins every now and than which are a clear attempts to set up a credit grab should a warm up actually succeed to take place - none of which really appears to be the case (not sure what he is looking at in this case, but I suspect it is more of a strategic positioning in an on-going manipulation of his users). On a purely meteorological level, none of his original insights as to WHY it would warm up bore any semblance of intrinsic deeper understanding, and was far in a way more like open speculation tinted by fancy speak to anyone with a shred of analytical ability. But anyway, the individual irritates me because his meteorological reasoning is wrong, or ...his attempts to water it down for the lowest common denominator is so bad that it makes him look wrong - but the irony there is, no one using his product is educated enough (in most cases) to question his veracity. So he's in a kind of Hollywood la-la land that feeds back on his own popularity. Some people have it all and that is just the way it is. I don't really care so much for that, it's not my concern, but I tell you what: I actually care a little that people understand this stuff, but when they weather the storm of his blogs and excerpts they come out miss-guided and in miss-conception. For one thing, duh - of course it is going to warm up at some point. Why? well on a fundamental statistical level, there are almost no winters in the past 100 years that were cold from start to finish. The lore of the "January Thaw" (whether it occurs IN January or not aside) has a root etymology in statistical fact. IN FACT, you could argue that the warm up that took place prior to the KU system two clicks ago was that warm up - he tried to spin that as his prediction too. BS. The reason these inter-seasonal warm ups take place is because the average synoptic quasi permanent pattern has about a 45-60 days residence before there is a change. If you are in a colder than normal pattern, you are likely to go the other way by pure circumstance of absolute 0 only being a theoretically non-reachable state for crying out loud! Geez. Yet, this person is lucky enough to be in a station/position to claim that his own prescient mind of Meteorological glory in seeing a warm up. No. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 It was very quick moving...about an 8 hour storm wire to wire...most fell in 3 hours. This one would likely not be as fast...but we're unlikely to see something as intense as that one. I agree with that. That 3-hr period was special and I will probably remember that one for the rest of my life. Plus, I've got camcorder coverage to spark my memory in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Euro through 60 looks quite wonderful to me. keep the updates coming sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 66 now vs 78 last night.....maybe 5 miles further west (current run) but very close today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 According to Will, Scott, and others, the H5 configuration is much better this time for WIDESPREAD heavies. I'm on board for widespread moderate. A good portion of the region will see 6+" for sure. But Kev specified 12+ which I think will be more limited in coverage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 66 now vs 78 last night.....maybe 5 miles further west (current run) but very close today. Doc is locking it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Passing over or JUST inside the BM....40/70.3 12z Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Low just inside the benchmark at 72........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'm on board for widespread moderate. A good portion of the region will see 6+" for sure. But Kev specified 12+ which I think will be more limited in coverage I think the implication is this CAN be rather strong....so 12+ widespread is always tough but this is the type of system it can happen in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Sounds like congrats SNE and enjoy scraps for NNE. I'm hoping for a shift but think this is the solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Passing over or JUST inside the BM....40/70.3 12z Wed. Nice! Is it stacking? Holding serve in its slower progression of the LP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Euro feeling the tug of better H5 support at last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Low just inside the benchmark at 72........ And then scooting east at 78. NNE still needs more help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I think its a scraper up here......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 is there a way that the ML low is slowed down some at all? sounds like a 10-12 hour hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Passes near the BM, but moves ene from there at hr 78. Both the GFS and euro have quite the backside on this low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 And then scooting east at 78. NNE still needs more help. We need this to go NNE into the GOM........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 It looks pretty similar to Euro last night....1 inch plus for SE half of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 And then scooting east at 78. NNE still needs more help. That eastward turn is our bugaboo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Sounds like congrats SNE and enjoy scraps for NNE. I'm hoping for a shift but think this is the solution. Isn't this said with almost every storm 3 days out and then we get glaring changes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 i'm an azz man myself....euro looking good Esp. for Long island they may Jackpot in qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Passes near the BM, but moves ene from there at hr 78. Both the GFS and euro have quite the backside on this low. What are we talking about here....Beyonce or Kim Kardashian sized backside? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Pretty nice trailing RH in the mid levels. Lots of lingering -sn between hr 84 and 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Isn't this said with almost every storm 3 days out and then we get glaring changes? Yeah, tis true. I'll recant that statement as pure woe-is-me weenieism and let this storm play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Verbatim, most in SNE would book 12+. S NH maybe 8-12, tougher further north. I suspect this qpf will be much more robust further north at verification time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 <BR>It looks pretty similar to Euro last night....1 inch plus for SE half of SNE.<BR><BR><BR><BR>verbatim you think there is a sick deform band nearBDL/ ORH / FIT line. or more like KPIT - SNH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Verbatim, most in SNE would book 12+. S NH maybe 8-12, tougher further north. I suspect this qpf will be much more robust further north at verification time. In these setups, isn't there usually a monster band that sets up near the NW periphery? That could save ASH/EEN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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