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Coastal Storm Potential - Jan 11-12


Baroclinic Zone

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WTF is JB talking about?? Anyone else agree?

HERE COMES THE THAW, AND ITS MAD IT DIDNT HOLD SOONER.

Heh snow geese and lovers of winters worst.. enjoy the next 7-11 days because after the worse, comes one heck of reverse. The ups and downs of this month are really peverse, but I will hold my tongue and not curse.

Ahh..I leave in 14 days...I'm fine with it. laugh.gif

I really think WED looks like a good 8-14" storm for those who stay all snow. Very progressive, but a good hit. I like that there is already pretty good agreement with this one.

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I think he's referring to the potential relaxation we've all been talking about. It's possible we may become milder for a day or two..around the 16th or 17th, but it could very well be an overrunning pattern. In fact, the ensembles push any boundary just offshore and develop just that, in the 11-15 day. It's too early to say what will happen, but I could see our latitude helping us out. I think the warm up is possible,as ensembles hint at it..but just too early to figure out. Hopefully we stay on the good side of the boundary.

Even if that comes to be it's a far cry from what he seems to be implying, as usual. We may see raindrops but we won't be breaking out the shorts. I think we've been hearing about the torch for over a month and it keeps getting pushed back. Calling for that is silly.

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you have to keep in mind that JB is extremely stubborn...he put out his winter forecast stating that winter would

start around thanksgiving and be unusually harsh through the holidays...then it would basically become mild

for january and february...he was correct about his "december to remember"...but his complete reversal

hasn't occurred and even if it does it may not occur until February. He is obviously trying to hammer a square peg into round

hole.

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Even if that comes to be it's a far cry from what he seems to be implying, as usual. We may see raindrops but we won't be breaking out the shorts. I think we've been hearing about the torch for over a month and it keeps getting pushed back. Calling for that is silly.

Sooner or later it'll come to fruition and he'll crow about it. I take his ramblings with a block of salt.

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JB should have been on the planet fitness commercial all he likes to do is put things up and put them down anything else he isnt good at!

Love that commercial! and yes JB would have been perfect for that one..seeing he is a weight lifter and all...and drinks those power drinks like that guy was drinking orange juice...sorry.but this guy is a little shaky in his forecast skills...sorry.....and it didn't help that accu crap boosted his jock strap ego!

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RE: JB. I remember well the column written mid Dec 2001. To the tune of Jingle Bells

"cross polar flow, cross polar flow, cross polar flow on the way....the Christmas chill will give you thrills...but not as good as New Years DAy"

How did that turn out? Also, his change to a warm pattern probably does not include our area. Just saying.

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you have to keep in mind that JB is extremely stubborn...he put out his winter forecast stating that winter would

start around thanksgiving and be unusually harsh through the holidays...then it would basically become mild

for january and february...he was correct about his "december to remember"...but his complete reversal

hasn't occurred and even if it does it may not occur until February. He is obviously trying to hammer a square peg into round

hole.

2F subnormal is memorable? We've had many better over the past 15 years.

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He's not real impressed with the moisture output in SNE from this system based on the placement of the ULL. The post is a few pages back.

Close. I'm not concerned about the moisture availability. Should have abundant moisture to work with. The DURATION of the storm (LLJ convergence over the region etc.) will be limited as the mid level low books it east.

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What was forcing this thing to slow down? Blocking? Did Will or any other mets buy into the factors that were slowing the progression of this storm? What was the strength of the HP in Quebec on the EURO?

It appeared to be better stacking at mid and higher levels with the surface.

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The solutions thuse far remind me a lot of of the day or two before Dec 9, 2005...the global models were shoving it SE pretty good and all the mesoscale models were wrapping it way up.

I'd take that...but wasn't this a quick hitting storm? I remember I was at 4.5" by noonish (wet snow) and then all of a sudden that final band dropped 10" in a few short hours. It was all over by evening.

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22/14, have had a persistent light snow falling all day. Liking the way things stand right now. Eagerly anticipating the EURO. Funny how weenies worry about things even when all signs point to a good hit. Great pattern we're in that just wants to over-perform. Settle back and enjoy the ride. even if we have a clunker run or two this thing is going to land a direct hit in the end.

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At this point the NAM is def an outlier, but we can't throw it completely out can we. With the Ukie so far Southeast and then the rest bring the low either over the benchmark or just inside it I think it is safe to say we have a nice winter storm coming with warning criteria snows for most if not all. Only question may be the Cape and extreme south shore....will they mix or potential go to rain. Let us hope not and show some love to those on the Cape. Any thoughts on how high the totals may go? Any wind problems coming from this storm(at the coast maybe?) and the possibility that someone may see some thundersnow out of this?

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Sooner or later it'll come to fruition and he'll crow about it. I take his ramblings with a block of salt.

Broken clock theory. And we may torch for a couple days and see some drops as I said...but then he'll say something changed and he was still mostly right. If we end up positive for January (BDR is 2.6 for example) it'll be a win in his eyes when it's not a big deal. The implication was/is a really warm month with rain, not above-average with lots of snow. If this storm works out for us back here again (~12) we're on our way to a fantastic winter.

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I'd take that...but wasn't this a quick hitting storm? I remember I was at 4.5" by noonish (wet snow) and then all of a sudden that final band dropped 10" in a few short hours. It was all over by evening.

It was very quick moving...about an 8 hour storm wire to wire...most fell in 3 hours. This one would likely not be as fast...but we're unlikely to see something as intense as that one.

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