nzucker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Stick with Euro verbatim. NAM usually ebbs and flows until we get a bit closer NAM is terrible at this range...toss it. 12z NAM gave me 2 feet of snow while I barely get 6" on the 18z NAM...very inconsistent with its modeling of the closing H7 low and associated banding. I'd feel much more comfortable relying on the ECM and to some extent, the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Huge hit with a mid 980 low near ACK Let's not have much wind with this one ok? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 15z SREF mean is a tick NW from 9z. Looks like an MVY-PVC track before scooting east. 12z EC ens mean is just inside the BM...hard to bet against anything inside of ACK at this point, but we'll see. Has anyone seen the 12Z Euro ensemble mean for this system? Reports will be appreciated and sorry for not finding it if posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Let's not have much wind with this one ok? Won't be anything like the last one. I love the wind though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Let's not have much wind with this one ok? Unavoidable with the big high. This is not a SWFE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Won't be anything like the last one. I love the wind though. I do too..except when there's powdery snow..Second to snow..high wind is my favorite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 [/b] Thank you! I like Euro's consistency. Perfect track for many including you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I do too..except when there's powdery snow..Second to snow..high wind is my favorite Nothing better than +SN with ripping wind, IMO. This sort of reminds me of Feb 10, 2010. Mid level lows closing too far south and scooting east??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I havent been on a lot today, but I will say that I am currently favoring something NW of the global model consensus but SE of the SREF. This is the exact type setup where the global models may be too far SE. When you look at the upper air and pva, it would certainly argue for a track relatively tucked in close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Meanwhile, nice upslope snows spilling over the crest all day. Seem to be re-intensifying again. Theme of a snowy winter, it finds ways to snow. We'll dedicate a 1000 pgs to this one but regardless it's going to strike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Nothing better than +SN with ripping wind, IMO. This sort of reminds me of Feb 10, 2010. Mid level lows closing too far south and scooting east??? uh oh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I havent been on a lot today, but I will say that I am currently favoring something NW of the global model consensus but SE of the SREF. This is the exact type setup where the global models may be too far SE. When you look at the upper air and pva, it would certainly argue for a track relatively tucked in close. Do you think the storm is going to close off in time for a 12" snowfall in NYC metro/SW CT, or will this be more of a New England Miller B as the CCB develops later? Could QPF be undermodeled with the Gulf/STJ connection? It seems as if the ECM is pretty aggressive on QPF, which might be a warning sign as it's typically dry in this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yeah and the problem with the NAM (it could be correct) is that it waits to close a 700mb low until basically south of BID. That's pretty late... good for BOS and inside 495 but problematic for NYC/CT/W & C Mass I'd love to lock that up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I do too..except when there's powdery snow..Second to snow..high wind is my favorite You don't work outside. I hate the wind. It's my nemesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vttaconics Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Yuck ... fringed again. NNE guys not gonna like this one. It's just one screw job after another up here. We get our snow a half inch at a time now... I miss the small scale orographic stuff, as well as the big synoptic snows. I'm done with my eeyor-ing about another snowless central VT winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'd love to lock that up. Well the NAM sort of screws you by scooting everything east and closing off the mid level low so far south... so you probably only get 6 or 7" from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Unfortunately I will be just missing this snowstorm. I should be out of Logan Airport in the early afternoon hours on Tuesday. I just hope I don't get delayed at the airport, that is something I don't need. Man, I would love to stay a few extra days at home and witness this potential storm, but something tells me the storm will arrive just too late for me. Good luck with the storm everyone. Cape Cod, MA gets 3'+ of snow from this storm, just because I am leaving. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'd love to lock that up. It gives you 6 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Well the NAM sort of screws you by scooting everything east and closing off the mid level low so far south... so you probably only get 6 or 7" from it. Wouldn't happen like that.....gimme that soloution and I'll take my chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'll give you 6 inches Use the PM feature dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Wouldn't happen like that.....gimme that soloution and I'll take my chances. NAM sort of reminds me of 2/10/10 which most of us don't want to repeat... it's just damn south and east with the mid level lows so SE Mass get hit nicely but the rest of us miss out on the big stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Wouldn't happen like that.....gimme that soloution and I'll take my chances. Adjust it 50 miles NW and you have the probably solution. I'm feeling this one....big snows on the way. My only concern is taint and I think even if I see it, plenty of snow comes in prior, during, and probably after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I like Wills analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 NAM sort of reminds me of 2/10/10 which most of us don't want to repeat... it's just damn south and east with the mid level lows so SE Mass get hit nicely but the rest of us miss out on the big stuff. I never even entertained the notion of a good snowfall imby for that event.....not worried about that this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I like Wills analysis Yeah I agree with him too. This kind of setup makes me think tucked inside the BM. That could change if the 500mb low tracks too far south and we close everything off too late and too far south. I think that's possible but not as likely right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I havent been on a lot today, but I will say that I am currently favoring something NW of the global model consensus but SE of the SREF. This is the exact type setup where the global models may be too far SE. When you look at the upper air and pva, it would certainly argue for a track relatively tucked in close. Could you expound on that Will? I know I read ion ALB's AFD yesterday that the approaching OV trough ould help to 'capture' or pull the system West. Is this what you are seeing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Is CCPSUSuperstorm2010 going somewhere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Adjust it 50 miles NW and you have the probably solution. I'm feeling this one....big snows on the way. My only concern is taint and I think even if I see it, plenty of snow comes in prior, during, and probably after. Go ahead, admit I nailed it yesterday.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Is CCPSUSuperstorm2010 going somewhere? LOL, I think Europe as an exchange student. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I havent been on a lot today, but I will say that I am currently favoring something NW of the global model consensus but SE of the SREF. This is the exact type setup where the global models may be too far SE. When you look at the upper air and pva, it would certainly argue for a track relatively tucked in close. Exactly, between ACK and Messenger, like I have been saying all week. The issue revolves around when the H7 low will close off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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